372 sats \ 7 replies \ @davidw 9 Mar \ on: Incentives and coordination to solve hard problems mostly_harmless
So true, great post. There are many examples of this in society. Like @kr discussed in a recent podcast we could have had flying cars already. We could also have had abundant chemical & salt-free water from our oceans and water-powered engines & vehicles.
It’s not just the incentives to build these innovative products don’t exist, it’s that the existing power structures in place have very very strong incentives to ‘neut’ or prevent them from taking off & gaining traction.
The reason we have so many plastics in our society is not because we can’t create biodegradable packaging, just like the reason we can’t have natural pharmaceutical products with no petrochemicals in them is not because it’s hard but because the oil giants have every incentive to monetise their waste products and impose their usage on society.
When you start thinking about it, there is sooo much suppression of innovation and technology in today’s society. When the cap is lifted and these dark incentives cease to retain such power, there’s going to be such a huge economic boom IMHO.
I haven't listened to the podcast, but I don't feel like anyone in particular is wielding the technology suppression gun. It's like the suppression gun emerges from the system design and then people on the right side of the gun all fight to maintain and strengthen it. So the question for me is: how to design a system that doesn't create technology suppression guns?
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This is my overwhelming feeling, also. Systems work to propagate themselves at every level, from the cellular to the civilization. Which, if true, has sobering implications for what we can expect even if btc succeeds wildly.
Certain problems will be eternal, that's my prediction. But it's hard to say exactly which ones.
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Economies of scale has been a way to fast-forward efficiency and the side effect has been some of these themes & symptoms.
More money = more firepower = more economies of scale = more marketing = more customers = more money.
In the future, it may actually be a drag having all of that capital overhead, when people in their teenage basements and with a creative mind can will any one of their 1,000+ creations into existence.
I’m specifically wondering whether energy fusion (or abundance), nanotech, AI, open source and hard money (bitcoin) combined will break down the economies of scale in products & business, that we have witnessed for the past 100 years.
Not sure how true it is but I heard a report last week that drones costing several thousand dollars each were overwhelming military equipment worth tens of millions. That’s just one anecdote but I think it represents a shift in balance. Same for ‘journalism’ and individual researchers / writers / analysts punching above their weight and out-competing these big newsrooms. But I digress.
I wonder if the wheels are already in motion to less suppressed technology. If so, just think what that unleashes.
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I’m specifically wondering whether fusion, nanotech, AI, open source and hard money (bitcoin) combined will break down the economies of scale in products & business, that we have witnessed for the past 100 years.
That's a fascinating thing to think about -- the more you can pull disparate things into one single brain, s.t. the coordination cost is basically zero, the more advantage you have. LLMs do this more than anything has in my lifetime, so I think the cocktail you describe could be a plausible erosion -- at least temporarily -- roll back the transaction cost advantages of the firm, at least for a while.
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Yes, civilisation has peaks and troughs, ebbs and flows of increasing centralisation vs decentralisation. So it certainly won’t be forever.
But it might be a pretty cool time to be a small vendor or small business owner again. At least that’s my hope.
Super excited to see some of these ridiculous and groundbreaking inventions go mainstream. Not just turning something analogue digital (which is basically the last 30 years). Hoprfully real sci-fi-looking progress.
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Suppression of innovation by government or monopolies?
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By both. So much misallocation of capital. It may not be directly desired, but because of that one simple intervention… it’s my suspicion that it reinforces the existing power structures and prevents them from needing to compete against potentially superior alternatives.
Pulling down such vast resources from the future, extends existing giants reach and allows them to market their inferior products to a wider audience, grow their share of the pie and change consumer attitudes/behaviour. That in a hard money standard would be extremely difficult or at least significantly harder to accomplish.
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