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According to https://nayibtracker.com "El Salvador" owns 2859 BTC. This made me think about the future of the country and possible election outcomes.
If you look at the history of people in charge in El Salvador it becomes clear that there where many, many crimnals (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_El_Salvador).
Looking forward and considering the bitcoin stack El Salvador has, these people have even more incentive to become president again and gain access to a juicy Bitcoin stack.
So the question comes down to who holds those keys? Will the current government hand over the key to the new government? Those are as well reasons I get to understand why @DarthCoin is talking about countries how he does... :)
What do you guys think? How could this play out in the long run?
I have not been to El Hodlador, but of course its on top of my wishlist. So this will just be some thinking around the dynamics from my side.
What they got is miniscule, and unless something major changes El Hodlador won't be able to get much more since there is not much fiat to buy with.
The residency program probably brings in a bit, but also that won't make them get into the top tier of hodlers before Bitcoin goes parabolic.
What matters is the incentive, the complete shift from being 100% dependent on fiat to getting some actual independence, especially since it seems they've been able to navigate both the IMF and World Bank, and even the CIA and others meddling.
This is a huge feat on its own, and totally what will drive the economy going forward. Just imagine living with the treat of being robbed, killed or even worse whenever you hit the streets after dark. Then there is a change where its currently one of the safest countries in the region!
That on its own is what will drive developments, even if something really bad happens, and since people now live in a completely different environment they will not accept going back to what was.
Which is possibly why there seemingly has not been an attempt at colour revolutions or the outright attacks that especially the IMF does as routine elsewhere.
What would happen if they lost all the BTC they hodl? Especially if it was stolen by the US?
I could imagine people all over the globe rallying to the cause, giving the whole project even a higher momentum...
What would happen if Bukele is out of the game for whatever reason? This might be the only Achilles heel. There would be people around him that have seen it all happen in real time that are qualified, but old power groups and/or external forces just might then be able to pull some strings...
But even then that would have to happen under intense scrutiny, globally but certainly on the ground as well. Which is why it would be hard for the usual suspects to just steal it all via a coup, a corrupted, new president or whatever.
In short I think it will take a lot to really derail things, especially now that all governments and plebs on the globe see the same: the dollar IS dying, for real now :-)
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You trigger me with this.
Indeed, govs accumulating BTC is kind of moronic. The only thing I see for govs like ES, is to mine BTC and sustain like that their governmental activities, paying the employees, infrastructure etc. But buying BTC and just holding is kind of dumb.
ES gov MUST start paying his gov employees in BTC and also pay the companies that will build the infrastructure in BTC. Only like that will start the BTC circular economy. DUMP THE FUCKING FIAT FFS! Only like that people will start using it as MONEY. Bitcoin is simply money not a getting rich scheme.
But Bukele was caught into this trap of "buying BTC" as a method of savings. The question is for WHO is saving those BTC? If BTC do not circulate it will became worthless, useless. We will still be using the fucking fiat forever (or substitutes, aka CBDCs).
FUCK BUKELE ! FUCK ALL GOVS. This idea of pushing govs / countries to adopt Bitcoin is total bullshit. PEOPLE MUST HOLD AND USE BITCOIN, not govs.
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52 sats \ 11 replies \ @ek 10 Mar
I think you triggered something in me with this
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Think also about this: salvadorans are paying taxes in fiat to ES gov. Then that gov is using that fiat to buy BTC. WITHOUT THEIR CONSENT!
If that gov, will use the tax money to build the infra for BTC mining (they don't do it), I will understand and will be a good thing. Will be more like a crowdfunding mining, where ALL salvadorans will benefit from that BTC mining. And with the BTC mined, they can sustain the whole public infrastructure, paying companies and people to maintain and build more.
But they don't do that. They just hold BTC like idiots, fiat maxis.
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Good points @DarthCoin. Woudn't it be something if the grubberment took that fiat tax $ and bought the btc plus the btc they have mined and, as btc increases in value, they pay shares of some of the btc the guvt has stacked back to the people of ES?
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btc increases in value, t
No, you still don't get it. FUCK FIAT! Pay people in BTC, not fiat. This is how you start an economy based on Bitcoin. If they really want to do it right, all money that the gov have right now, will be invested into BTC mining infra. Then with those BTC mined, PAY THE FUCKING WORKERS TO MAINTAIN THE COUNTRY INFRASTRUCTURE. That way the gov will not have to tax anymore anybody else. And everybody is using BTC. FOR FUCK SAKE, WHEN PEOPLE WILL LEARN THAT THE WHOLE POINT IS TO GET RID OF FIAT ?
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unless el Salvador stop doing business internationally and can self sufficient with building mining hardware and core infrastructure and he self sufficient with everything, exchange rate will always be a part of dealing business, especially if you want to use btc as money.
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They should start convincing other people from around the world to accept their products for sats. They need bitcoin partners. Yes, is the only way to go forward for ES, otherwise they will go back to USD standard.
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I work in manufacturing, your trading partner might accept Bitcoin as payment.
But there are hundreds of parts in a BOM, freight (container, custom and duties etc) etc.
You can't get rid of fiat in the equation. Whoever accept Bitcoin will have to hedge it.
medium of exchange don't matter nearly as much as store of value.
Places with hyper inflation would be happy to trade with anything, a pack of cigarettes. During covid 19 lockdown in china, they were having a full barter system.
ok good points but calm the fuck down and learn how to communicate and speak with people in a civilised manner. It gets to the point that you are just being incredibly rude and arrogant to people!
Regarding btc increasing in value, that will happen as it becomes more scarce regardless of whether it is pegged to any fiat currency value. Don't assume that when people talk about btc "increasing in value" that everyone is thinking in terms of a fiat or a USD figure value.
Pay people in BTC, not fiat. This is how you start an economy based on Bitcoin.
This helps, but merely paying people in Bitcoin is not the foundation for starting a Bitcoin economy. A sustainable free/very low cost energy source is the foundation. We find sources of energy to mine bitcoin, and from this fountain, an economy will organically grow around it infused with Bitcoin from the very foundation. That is how you start a micro-economy based on Bitcoin.
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Yeah, I completly agree and it as well comes down to who owns the btc. A country can by their law own but but a country cannot hold a private key.
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I couldn't agree more with this. It's clearly written in the white paper "peer-to-peer" - not "business-to-business" or "gov-to-gov"
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governments using BTC means the end of corruption, theoretically
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @zarko 10 Mar
you can monitor where money goes
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in theory.... but its not that easy.
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I’d say of course a government can hold coins. Precisely as they used to have coffers full of gold.
Holding btc is fine and necessary, since all governments need reserves. However it is also true that btc has to be the de facto money used as well. The news I hear is that that is slowly happening.
It takes time, as I see it. We can’t expect these changes to happen instantly. Bukele, as far as I’ve seen, seems to be steering things in the right direction, especially concerning safety.
I’m from Brazil and much like ES, crime is endemic and even fostered by the government. Bukele is doing the right thing. Once a country can have at least that level of safety, it’s also easier for people to care about the money they use
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Countries do what countries do.
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a country cannot do anything by themself. Only people in a country can do something.
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Well said.
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Liars gonna lie
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yes, shit on people :)
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Plundering the treasury is the age old objective of the power hungry. Always has been, always will be.
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If coinbase is the custodian of the coins it means to give away your treasury to your "amigo" which is probably not the best idea.
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210 sats \ 1 reply \ @Atreus 11 Mar
Salvadoran here — 
As discussed in my onetime SN post about ES, El Sal has a nasty history of corrupt governments. Literally every president prior to Nayib—so, all the presidents when El Sal was considered a “happy democracy”—stole liberally. One of them, when confronted with his stealing, just justified himself by saying “Yea well everyone steals!”
My dad is very fatalistic about this and just says it's part of the culture in ES. Nayib when he was running for president even pointed out, “There's actually plenty of money in El Salvador as long as they stop stealing.” There's a longtime culture of corruption at play here.
Now, with respect to the future, the whole point of the current administration is reforming all of that cringe: "Nuevas Ideas" = New Ideas.
Will it work in the long-term? 🧐 I don't think anyone is in a position to say. Finally fucking the gangs up was a great step one though 😃
Also...
Darth is correct that the focus in El Salvador needs to be spreading bitcoin's actual, self-sustaining economy, independent of what the government does. Education is the main obstacle to that, but groups like Mi Primer Bitcoin are making good progress.
What Salvadoran people want from their money is stability. They're still very annoyed with the move, a few administrations ago, of the national currency from colones to dollars, which largely made everything much more expensive. It's going to take time for Bitcoin's benefits to become apparent, and it's only going to happen from their observing other Salvadorans using and benefitting from BTC.
TLDR: Yea it's possible some future administration will rugpull, but that's only a problem if the people's bitcoin economy is dependent on their government, and that's not a bitcoin economy.
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Thank you for your words! I hope the best for the people in El Salvador!
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I would also like to know who has the keys to those Bitcoins and how they will pass from one hand to another, I have never been in favor of countries simply buying BTC and HODL them, what are they looking for with that? It would be better if they used them in some way, thus incentivizing their use.
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1 sat \ 1 reply \ @ama 10 Mar
Wasn't ¢ø|ñßæ$€ the custodian for ES's BTC? Won't the US government steal (confiscate or whatever, when they realize they can) their Bitcoin before than a salvadoreño tries?
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probably, yes. Which is quite bad decicion to give them to coinbase.
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This does not answer your question, but the reason the government of El Salvador bought Bitcoin in the first place is not as an investment or savings. This is such a paltry amount for a country-sized entity, even a small country like El Salvador.
The Bitcoin Law stipulates that a dual-currency system exists and both parties to a transaction (buyer and seller) can independently choose to pay/accept Bitcoin or USD.
The government is required by law to facilitate any conversions that may be required, on the spot (if you use the government wallet). They are a liquidity provider, which is why they need to hold some.
Plenty of plebs and companies have squandered their Bitcoin wealth, countries will do the same, money will flow where its treated best, central points of failure will be breached and exposed, this is the nature of the game.
I'm still trying to think through why a government would need Bitcoin, wouldn't it just be better to let private markets handle a lot of things instead and get out of their way?
You don't need that much reserves because theres no need for you to manage currency pairs like you do with fiat, thats already handled by the market
A government would likley spend their bitcoin on unprofitable projects and reduce their holdings over time because they don't have a profit motive, so even at the best of times I see them reducing positions over time, and in the worst of times sure, civil war, coup d'etat, regime change could see your stack sold off
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A hypothetical "world government" assumes that the provinces (former sovereign nations) are transparent and have zero corruption.
Nations like El Salvador accumulating BTC reinforce this thesis. The state accumulates BTC in order to later participate in global trade in a transparent manner, with a completely open ledger.
BTC will be the world's standard currency. What worries me is that it will essentially be used by provinces of the global government and meta-capitalist mega-corporations (BlackRock and the like).
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Im yet to see proof they own any btc at all.
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Whoever holds the keys represents a single point of failure - the only purpose and job for the state bureaucrats should be being bitcoin friendly (not banning it or taxing it..) and supportive to citizens holding it. Citizens are the state, not a bunch of bureaucrats...The other best thing for the bureaucrats would be to get a real job that actually adds value to other people
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @fm 10 Mar
gain access to a juicy Bitcoin stack.
Those bitcoins are probably harder to steal than fiat.
A lot of eyes on those wallets. Its easier to steal with regular contracts rather than sack that bag i guess..
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It is not even public who holds the keys or where the wallets are.
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Bukele shows that El Salvador moved a total of 5,689 BTC, which is also the overall balance to the cold wallet address 32ixEdvjWo…ZZeuwnqzo
You saw this? Not sure if its true thought
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Yeah, saw it. That shows an address which some coins. But it is not clear who hold the keys...
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @fm 10 Mar
The what!!
I thought the wallet was known..
Thats very shady indeed..
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT 10 Mar
I think their stack is with coinbase
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even worse. This mean the US has control over the coins.
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The title says it all (Censored)
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The longer El Salvador HODL, the bigger the mistake will be. Countries shouldn't hold Bitcoin, instead they shoud run their homeland by applying it as day to day money. Initially I thought that nayib Bukele must have some plans of adopting to full Bitcoin standard but noe it seems it was another propaganda from another political criminal. If Bukele didnt ever think of spending Bitcoin, he might well have some suspicious plans.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Oialt 10 Mar
Who knows?
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I would care if I lived there
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Why not Orange pill all the fuckin' criminals of Hodlador?
Im hearing those people with power "Do your own business"
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stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.
stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.