Why smart people believe stupid things \ stacker news ~mostly

4694 sats \ 16 comments \ @frostdragon 21 Mar mostly_harmless

"Why smart people believe stupid things", by Gurwinder:

Disclaimer: for a video that goes into the dangers of bias, it got surprisingly political towards the beginning. Obviously take that with a grain of salt.

TL;DW - people who score higher in intelligence actually score higher in bias, and those of us who are good at logic and reasoning are more likely to convince ourselves of irrational beliefs.

Kind of crazy to think about, because I consider myself a very logical thinker. Like - there’s a non zero chance that I’ve irrationally convinced myself to become a “bitcoiner” and we’re all rationalizing this thing together, as a group. I don’t think that’s actually true, buuuuuut…… It’s something that should be on our minds, in my opinion.

The solution, in a nutshell - “instead of defining yourself by your ability to reason, define yourself by your willingness to learn. Then, admitting you’re wrong, instead of feeling like an attack, will become an opportunity for growth.” (Unless of course defining yourself by your ability to learn is also a rationalized self-delusion 👀 in which case we’re all screwed anyway, haha)

I thought it was interesting to define this as a disorder that preys specifically on intelligent people.

I also loved that at the end, he basically says those who think they’re humble aren’t, so he doesn’t think he’s humble… But he’s trying, and trying to be humble is the same as being humble, lol. I guess there’s really no way around that paradoxical irony.

Anyway - always be open to the possibility that you may be wrong, and stack sats.

Favorite quotes from the video:

“Test subjects who scored highest in numeracy were better able to objectively evaluate statistical data when told it related to a skin rash treatment, but when the same data was presented as relating to a polarizing subject, gun control, those who scored highest in numeracy actually exhibited the greatest bias.”

“A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep” - Saul Bellow

"An explanation so idiotic, only an intellectual could think of it."

“These kinds of master debater-y beliefs prevail among cultural elites, including those who should know better such as biologists. But they are rarer among the common people who lack the capacity for mental gymnastics required to justify such intricate delusions.”

“The standard rationalist path is to try to avoid delusion by learning about cognitive biases and logical fallacies, but this can be counter productive. Research suggests that teaching people about misinformation often just causes them to dismiss facts they don’t like as misinformation, while teaching them logic often results in them applying that logic selectively to justify whatever they want to believe.”

“It was curiosity that was found by Kahan’s research to be the strongest countermeasure against bias”.

“It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled” - Mark Twain

Mentioned studies that found stronger biases in “clever people”:

“Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs” - 2006 https://fbaum.unc.edu/teaching/articles/AJPS-2006-Taber.pdf

“Cognitive Sophistication Does Not Attenuate the Bias Blind Spot” - 2012 http://www.keithstanovich.com/Site/Research_on_Reasoning_files/West_Stanovich_JPSP2012.pdf

“Who Knows Best? Education, Partisanship, and Contested Facts” - 2014 https://utw10426.utweb.utexas.edu/education_ideology.pdf

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1508 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 21 Mar

It's come up here a bunch of times where people have asked something like how do I be more open-minded? And I always say Actually care about being open-minded.

So many people LARP about wanting to be open-minded, but you push just a tiny bit and you see nothing whatsoever reflected in their actions or their lives: all their information coming from the same tribe, all their friends from the same tribe. They talk about how important it is to be open to new perspectives, but what they really mean is: everyone else should be open to my perspective, which is obviously right. Talk about the bias everywhere, where bias = disagreeing with how I see things.

Subcultures -- including bitcoiners -- are the worst at this.

If you want to be open-minded, and you want less bias, and you want to understand the world, the evidence of this will be all over your life, and it won't be subtle. If you introspect and you don't find it -- or maybe, if your ideological enemy wouldn't have to admit that you're doing it -- maybe what you're after isn't open-mindedness, or the truth.

114 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 21 Mar

this !

The solution, in a nutshell - “instead of defining yourself by your ability to reason, define yourself by your willingness to learn. Then, admitting you’re wrong, instead of feeling like an attack, will become an opportunity for growth.” (Unless of course defining yourself by your ability to learn is also a rationalized self-delusion 👀 in which case we’re all screwed anyway, haha)

No surprises here, the normal distribution is in play. It's logical ! Ahahah

Anyway - always be open to the possibility that you may be wrong, and stack sats.

92 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 21 Mar

“The standard rationalist path is to try to avoid delusion by learning about cognitive biases and logical fallacies, but this can be counter productive. Research suggests that teaching people about misinformation often just causes them to dismiss facts they don’t like as misinformation, while teaching them logic often results in them applying that logic selectively to justify whatever they want to believe.”

This is the research I was planning on talking about. God damn, are we good at rationalization or what?

I think your early point about being willing to learn is spot on. Relatedly, I think trying to give "the other side" as charitable of an interpretation as possible is very important.

To a first approximation, we're probably all wrong about everything, so if you're not updating your views occasionally, that's evidence that your views are probably wrong.

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @frostdragon OP 21 Mar

Yep - "steal man" the opposing view, try to find what's true instead of what's false, try to find points of agreement... All very important debate and reasoning tactics.

As I say about chess, it's about learning, not winning.

50 sats \ 1 reply \ @justanumber 22 Mar

for a video that goes into the dangers of bias, it got surprisingly political towards the beginning.

They are probably just proving their own point that "smart people believe stupid things" 🤣🤣🤣🤣 The stupid thing being that politics can solve anything.

I think I watched this a while back, will try to watch again later and come back

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @frostdragon OP 22 Mar

The stupid thing being that politics can solve anything

I think that's definitely a matter of opinion, but... one I tend to agree with pretty strongly, haha

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @expatriotic 22 Mar

I agree that people who disagree with me need to check their biases and educate themselves. Great share!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @frostdragon OP 22 Mar

lol

34 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 21 Mar

Another factor is peer pressure

College professors are 99 percent left wing.

Law school professors are 95 percent left wing.

Medical schools have embraced diversity and equity.

Is it any wonder that recent graduates are mostly left wing?

Silicon Valley is 85 percent left wing.

Hollywood is 90 percent left wing.

How can any institution be 90 percent one sided without peer pressure or something more insidious?

If you are only exposed to one side your opinions will be one sided

Another thing I have noticed is lack of civil discourse. I’ve noticed in the last 20 years people will engage in ad hominem attacks more quickly and frequently. People are quick to blame social media but I think that’s the symptom not the cause.

Try having a discussion about immigration or affirmative action without anyone playing the race card.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Signal312 21 Mar

Yep. Intelligence does not equal moral courage to stand up to the crowd.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 21 Mar

Great reminder. We all have strengths and weaknesses. All have areas for improvement. There's a lot of wisdom here.

I'm immediately am reminded of the Scripture. Not only these verses but the thread of the story throughout.

Pride goes before destruction, And a haughty spirit before stumbling. It is better to be humble in spirit with the lowly Than to divide the spoil with the proud.

Proverbs 16:18-19

Why do you look at the speck that is in your brother’s eye, but do not notice the log that is in your own eye? Or how can you say to your brother, ‘Let me take the speck out of your eye,’ and behold, the log is in your own eye? You hypocrite, first take the log out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to take the speck out of your brother’s eye.

Matthew 7:3-5

I often say, there is no amount of intelligence that can't be overcome by arrogance.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter 21 Mar

And the best reason is the reason itself.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 21 Mar

That's actually false. The whole point of the video and post is that intelligence alone isn't enough. You must have curiosity and humility. Otherwise you become so sure of yourself and so focused on winning that you cease learning and questioning assumptions.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Signal312 21 Mar

Yep. I'm not a dummy myself, but I definitely believed that most of the standard nutritional advice (limit or avoid red meat and saturated fat, eat lots of fiber and fruits and veggies).

Why did I believe it? Just the overwhelming amount of "information" that "proves" that it's true. With no personal evidence to the contrary, I believed it as well.

Why did I change my mind? People I respect (bitcoiners such as Saifedean Ammous) were vocal about the benefits of the carnivore diet. He had Nina Teicholtz on his podcast (she wrote the book The Big Fat Surprise, I wrote about the book here.

Anyway, that book was eye-opening. I don't think I would have been so affected by it had I not known that people that I highly respected did NOT believe the standard narrative. Once I had details about the problems with the standard nutrition narrative, I was open to new information.

And now that I've had personal experience with the carnivore diet, I'm seeing dramatic benefits, benefits that I'm never going to give up. They will pry the meat out of my cold dead hands!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 22 Mar

Hahaha I have a funny story. My younger brother didnt understand why there were grapes on a raisin box. He finally asked when he was 22. He didnt put it together. If you understand, comment haha

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @erict875 21 Mar

This reminds me when I was telling all my smart friends and relatives that Trump would win the 2016 🇺🇸presidential election. None of them was able to see the reality playing outside of their bubbles. It was pathetic.