If you examine the historical statistics of Bitcoin's Lightning Network — including node count, channel count, and total channel capacity — you will notice a decline since the first quarter of 2022. Over the past two years, it appears that LN is not only stagnating but also contracting significantly. This contraction is surprising, especially considering the seeming all-time high popularity of LN by other metrics. So, what is happening and what does the future hold?
pull down to refresh
823 sats \ 0 replies \ @DarthCoin 18 Apr freebie
Is exactly what I repeated over and over in my guides and on SN...
- these stats are ONLY for public nodes, not private
- noobs realized that running a public node only for paying a beer is not worth it
- noobs realized that running a public routing node is NOT for "passive income"
- running a public routing node is a very serious business and must be done properly, with good capital, good hardware, good knowledge and skills. Otherwise is wasting time and most importantly you are AFFECTING the rest of the network with your shity node.
- this decline means that more users moved to PRIVATE nodes: Zeus, Blixt, Mutiny, Breez, Electrum, Phoenix etc. And that IS GOOD ! Normal users should use private nodes not public.
- also this decline means that some node runners, even that they keep the same hardware and software, were converting their public channels into private ones. Also is good, because in this way if they run a shity node, will not affect the rest of the network.
In conclusion, read what I said here: #486306
And here I made a simple empirical scheme (for siggy) about how will look the LN topology in the future.
https://m.stacker.news/27110
Guides in which I warn and recommend these aspects:
- https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/lightning-routing-fees-experiment
- https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/recommendations-for-ln-users
- https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/lightning-node-maintenance
- https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/getting-started-ln
- https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/private-lightning-nodes
- https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/managing-lightning-node-liquidity
- https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/darth-and-chewie
reply
37 sats \ 0 replies \ @cyberpunk02 18 Apr
TLDR frothing newbs thought they could make a quick buck are going, POW engaging.
reply
31 sats \ 0 replies \ @bartoli 18 Apr
If you apply basic filtering to that node count (nodes that did not update their state in the last 60 days, nodes with no advertized adddress, channels disabled on both sides,,..)
You already diminish to 3500 nodes / 16500 channels /1800BTC currently, according to my node data.
So it would be interesting to see the historic data with such filters included. Because if the number of actually useable nodes is still 1/4 of the raw advertized number, i am not sure we can actually draw advanced conclusions from it
reply
10 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bear 18 Apr
What are the other metrics?
reply
15 sats \ 0 replies \ @south_korea_ln 18 Apr freebie
Check the link ;)
I guess it's mostly referring to the River report.
reply
10 sats \ 1 reply \ @clownworld 18 Apr freebie
What’s happening is that there is zero adoption by brick and mortar businesses. Thus, the use of LN is limited to enthusiasts and a few online businesses, and when the channels and hubs consolidate, and small nodes go away, there’s no additional growth.
Making a lightning network work is not enough to make it successful as a medium of exchange. Someone needs to go out there and push it and make it worthwhile for shops and businesses to actually accept it.
NOBODY is doing this at all. Literally no one, to the best of my knowledge. This is why it’s not growing.
reply
20 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 18 Apr
I don't think there is much desire in the public to buy a cup of coffee with "digital gold" for $3 today, but will have cost you $30 in 5 years.
Greshams Law. "Spend bad money before you spend good money". Currently there is lots and lots of bad money to spend.
This is why I'm also skeptical of the "we need to scale bitcoin" L2 projects. Not against them, just skeptical if there is actual economic demand.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 18 Apr
Can you see the statistics for TOR nodes?
While it's not directly related to TOR nodes, I shared this updated report a few days ago, and it's worth checking out. #500891
reply