The value of Bitcoin is subjective and no one can truly predict what will happen. The halving is an objective consensus change by Bitcoin Core nodes to reduce the block reward granted in each block by half.
The idea is that for miners to pay the electricity costs needed to maintain their hashrate, this would require an increase in the fee for every transaction or an increase in the value of Bitcoin. Alternatively the hashrate could drop until the miners reach an equilibrium with the fee environment and fiat cost (or whatever their energy prices are denominated in) of their Bitcoin.
The outcome of this halving cycle is usually delayed but some factors may delay it more, like the new token protocol released on Bitcoin that has spiked feerates to unexpected highs. Other never-before-seen factors will probably speed up the cycle, like the large OTC buys from miners that silently dwindle consumer supply. Basically we’re in uncharted territory but most Bitcoiners see the fiat price increasing after all of this.
Uncharted territory? This happens like every 4 years or something like that!
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The whole spiel before that explains the uncharted territory, i.e. the activity generated by the rune protocol and the OTC institutional buys for ETFs. As @lopp noted on X/Twitter: "Bitcoin is on a record 100 block streak of transaction fees exceeding the block subsidy."
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I posted that tweet in a miner telegram group
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and if Miners aren't paid as much. well, it's pretty straight forward to me. It doesn't seem as if it will be as profitable.
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