Describe the nature of the 5 years preceding hyperbitcoinization as you see them \ stacker news ~bitcoin

Describe the nature of the 5 years preceding hyperbitcoinization as you see them

448 sats \ 12 comments \ @DiracDelta 24 May bitcoin

Today, most contracts and business is specified is defined in US dollars, even bitcoin-paid contracts specify value 100% in dollars. In some unknown amount of time, every agreement in the world will specify payments in terms of an amount of bitcoin.

While bitcoin is undergoing monetization, it cannot be used in contracts, for all parties go bankrupt from volatility. If the dollar is used in some way as it nears total demonetization, all parties go bankrupt from volatility as well (as an aside, this makes it obvious why privacy shitcoins are all worthless shitcoins). So it should be fairly clear that what we are looking at is a literal SINGULARITY. The division by fiat going to zero is literally a singularity.

So many people have ideas about economics, which are all fine and dandy, but what you have is GENERAL RELATIVITY, which fails in singularities (black holes). Psychologically, bitcoiners have created a blank spot in their mind that they have filled in and managed to ignore. This is no different than the blindspot that you have in your visual system, or the way leftists manage to perform all sorts of mental gymnastics. I am trying to get you to become aware of it with this prompt.

Understanding a singularity is the most interesting study in economics, for it is the equivalent in physics of a Grand Unified Theory. A planetary civilization only has one such singularity, for all other monetary transition across metals and fiat are always too gradual to be considered a singularity.

My assertion is that I have far and away the best understanding of the singularity economics, but not due to any special insight or brilliance, but by virtue of seemingly being the only person to have bothered thinking about it. I see it as akin to going from nocoiner to bitcoiner in deciding to think about money, which most people simply never bother to do. Here is the latest thing I wrote on the matter: https://x.com/DiracDel/status/1792453361184428452

I welcome anyone else who wishes to understand the singularity and the actual nature of bitcoinization beyond the facile NGU and MOE components to chime in. What cogent explanation of how a transition occurs can you put forward? Do you imagine a single day n-1 in which all contracts are in terms of USD, and then on the following day, hyperbitcoinization, and everyone goes into work and renegotiates all contracts to adjust them in terms of bitcoin? Or do you imagine that at some point, say $1m/btc, an automotive company will specify a 3 year supply contract with their engine supplier in terms of bitcoin?

Explain yourself! Not to me, but to yourself -- you will detect your own idiocy in the half-baked things you realize you never actually thought about.

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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @DarthCoin 25 May

I doubt to see such hyperbitcoinization in the next 30-50 years. Why? Because most of people are really retarded.

Bitcoin is not for the weak, only for the brave.

@remindme in 5 years

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @halalmoney 25 May

Perhaps for long term contracts we will see greater use of:

Bitcoin denominated performance bonds

Later stage payment milestones denominated in Bitcoin (rather than inflation indexation on a fiat sum)

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @DiracDelta OP 25 May

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satosora 24 May

I saw this show on tv once. It was called almost human. They used bitcoin in it, I thought it was very cool. Also, in blacklist, they used cryptocurrency to move money. All of these things are all next steps for people to become aware of btc.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @DiracDelta OP 24 May

Your answer does not encompass the singularity and is non-responsive to the prompt.

10 sats \ 6 replies \ @south_korea_ln 24 May

Do you imagine a single day n-1 in which all contracts are in terms of USD, and then on the following day, hyperbitcoinization, and everyone goes into work and renegotiates all contracts to adjust them in terms of bitcoin?

Explain yourself! Not to me, but to yourself -- you will detect your own idiocy in the half-baked things you realize you never actually thought about.

At the risk of displaying my idiocy...

What's the argument to assume that it'll be a quick and sudden change, that things happen overnight? Even if the event (say hyper-inflation rather than hyperbitcoinization, to draw from existing data) can be quite sudden, the societal response is usually slow and finds intermediate local stability points.

Merchants will update the price of their products in real-time, constantly adjusting for updates in their devaluating currency. Official and black market rates will appear to respond to the different needs of different people. Don't get me wrong, hyper-inflation is awful for people in (e.g.) Argentina, it destroys any ability to save and think long-term, but for their day-to-day life, they find solutions to address the current problem at hand.

But to be honest, I usually refrain from thinking too much about this kind of hypotheticals that touch on societal behavior. Human sciences are just too hard to make accurate predictions on due to the myriad of degrees of freedom and the unpredictability of individual but also emerging human behavior.

Not my field of expertise, at all.

10 sats \ 5 replies \ @DiracDelta OP 24 May

Even if it is decades, it still much faster than any prior transition. So perhaps it might be more accurately described as that which most greatly approximates, but that really changes nothing. If you think it is as slow as things could possibly be, then what does year t-5 of the final dollar trade look like in different parts of the world?

Merchants will update the price of their products in real-time

So, you have described a sequence of events that actually does not encompass the singularity. You are describing from what it seems the continued pricing of goods in dollars and an acceleration of the frequency with which price updates are made. This is currently already happen and you are simply saying it increases, but that tells us nothing about what the world likes from now through a bitcoin standard where that is no longer happening.

But the bigger problem is that, not unlike a B-casher in some ways, you seem oblivious to the existence of something known as a FIRM, a thing that also goes by the name COMPANY or BUSINESS. You described a sort of contract that comprises an open offer that can be finalized by any counterparty who wishes to agree to it, and then rapidly settled in such a short time, that no exchange rates will move in the time of settlement that is modeled as an instantaneous events. However, in the nature of these FIRMS, other types of contracts are entered into that are written on pieces of paper, in modern times, these are built on PDF TECHNOLOGY as the base layer. The mere construction of these templates can take months sometimes, and the terms of them are years.

How can these PDF technology support MUTUALLY agreeable updates in real time, continuously, and be robust against any possible set of outcomes without requiring extensive re-negotiation? Well... therein is the question.

10 sats \ 3 replies \ @south_korea_ln 24 May

I obviously haven't thought about hyperbitcoinization much, likely because I don't think it'll happen in my lifetime (if ever). But as an intellectual exercise, you raise some interesting points. I do not have the answers to those, hence displaying my ignorance.

How can these PDF technology support MUTUALLY agreeable updates in real time, continuously, and be robust against any possible set of outcomes without requiring extensive re-negotiation? Well... therein is the question.

Extensive re-negotiation it'll be then. That happens all the time in business. Lawyers love this kind of shit. That's their raison-d'etre. Add a clause that says that if this or this happens, the contract becomes void and has to be renegotiated. But as with anything for which no precedent exists, it's very likely it'll be a clusterfuck for a while. But ways will be found. I'm not very apocalyptic or fatalist, by nature.

As a side note, I'm not sure as to the reason of your side note on me being akin to a bcasher~~

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @DiracDelta OP 24 May

The sidenote is about the fixation on a certain class of contract that is not representative of the broader scope of economic activities that exist in the world.

Add a clause that says that if this or this happens, the contract becomes void and has to be renegotiated.

This is very costly. Imagine if you are trying to build a car, but everyday, you have to spend half of your time renegotiating, or you have 20% of your staff dedicated to renegotiating and your supply chain team bloats 10x. These costs go to the consumer, and I actually do not believe you maintain the same timelines. Things just break and become dysfunctional, even perhaps while net output continues to grow.

We are seeing the beginning of this today, and as it gets worse, the marginal value and profit that can be attained by networks of economic actors who can more efficiently solve this problem will wipe out those that do not. I am not saying anything is apocalyptic, quite the opposite. Many bitcoiners say "NGU, NGU, NGU, then mini-apocalypse (glad I will be rich enough to weather that), and then beautiful bitcoin standard after the turmoil". The mini-apocalypse is actually an intellectual crutch for EXIT and disengagement with the nature of the world, and continued ignorance as to the fact that people will inevitably solve these problems, and the solution inherently cannot be defined purely in terms of bitcoin, as that is the definition of the years preceding hyperbitcoinization!

Your response points to one more reason I find it worthwhile to explore the true nature of the transition: the more it is viewed as an opaque boogeyman, the more people will see "oh, I don't know if hyperbitcoinization will ever happen, or at least not in my lifetime". Electricity was marketed as being terrifying, but now it is understood and tame.

To the nocoiner, bitcoin is terrifying, and even to the bitcoiner, hyperbitcoinization is often terrifying, so like a nocoiner pretending bitcoin surely cannot be real, the scared bitcoiner pretends hyperbitcoinization cannot be real or relevant to them.

Ever since I got into bitcoin in 2017, I understood hyperbitcoinization was coming -- so much so that in December as the price started ripping, I thought, "whew, that was lucky -- got in just at the nick of time," haha. And ever since understanding the fourth function of money, I have had a clear understanding of the transition and remain baffled by the fact that even people who have been around longer than me or claim to want to accelerate bitcoin or claim to be fans of economy theory, have no interest in understanding these basic principles of economics. https://heaviside.substack.com/p/the-forgotten-fourth-function-of