Two Predictions. \ stacker news ~bitcoin

493 sats \ 19 comments \ @bitties 7 Jun bitcoin

PlanB is back and he just dropped TWO mega bullish Bitcoin predictions.

For those of you who don’t know PlanB, he is arguably the most famous on-chain Bitcoin analyst.

With over 1.9 million followers on Twitter, he is most well known for his Stock-to-Flow model and spookily accurate price predictions.

Let’s break down some of the highlights from his latest market update.

Bitcoin to hit $500,000 by next year.

PlanB’s first prediction is based on his famous stock-to-flow model.

Last cycle, the model called for a $50,000 Bitcoin (which happened, obviously)

This cycle, the model is predicting Bitcoin will hit $500,000.

And the cycle after that, we can expect to hit $4,000,000.

Here’s how PlanB explains it:

“The price of Bitcoin shows a little bit of a lag, but eventually it catches up with the model value. And that is exactly what happened the last three halvings and what I expect will be happening next year.”

Bitcoin Will Never Drop Below This Price Ever Again

This next prediction is based on Bitcoin’s realized price.

Realized price is the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were last moved divided by the circulating supply.

🔴 Bitcoin’s current price: $71,000
⚫️ Realized price: $30,000
🔵 2-year realized price: $47,000
(cyan) 5-month realized price: $64,000 During a bull market, Bitcoin’s price is above all of these realized price variations.

Here’s the crazy part though.

Bitcoin’s 5-month realized price acts as a support level for bull market dips.

Meaning bull market dips will often touch this line but never break through it.

“To make an aggressive prediction… I don’t think we will see Bitcoin below $64,000 again.”

Keep in mind, when PlanB makes predictions like these, he’s talking about Bitcoin’s monthly close price.

Those are definitely some bullish predictions…

Will Bitcoin hit $500,000 this cycle?

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100 sats \ 3 replies \ @fiksn 7 Jun

Wasn't s2f model invalidated like in 2021 already? I mean who still pays attention to those scammers on social media.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @bitties OP 8 Jun

It’s a price prediction, it’s supposed to be speculative.

The amount of black and white is astounding.

50 sats \ 1 reply \ @fiksn 8 Jun

I mean yeah, "all models are wrong, some are useful". There is little doubt stock to flow is a fundamental influencing price and we'll eventually hit 500k, but this prediction model is just wrong. By PlanB's own criteria. But instead of admitting it and saying oh well this didn't work out but my gut feeling is still this price tag, he's just falsifying evidence on how the model was always on track and that is what I don't like.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitties OP 8 Jun

I can understand that.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 8 Jun

I remember he had 3 different models and 2 failed. We also had Bitcoin going bellow its previous ATH in 2022.

I’d take it with a grain of salt.

50 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 8 Jun

I don’t think S2F is a proper valuation methodology during adoption phase. Maybe it makes sense when we have 1B Bitcoin users.

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @bitties OP 8 Jun

Why do you say that? I respect your opinion and would like to hear more.

250 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 8 Jun

Because in the adoption phase you have early adopters that acquired coins for such small amounts of money who become very wealthy and can easily live rest of their lives by selling off coins (we are still on a fiat standard after all, so this is the most efficient way to convert bitcoin into goods and services) so when the price rises dramatically you get a lot of additional supply coming to the market from early adopters. S2F to me makes more sense when we get to a larger base of users, there is less volatility and realized price and price trade in a smaller band.

50 sats \ 1 reply \ @bitties OP 8 Jun

Good thing for us, we will get to watch that play out.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 8 Jun

It really is an incredible time to be alive.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryotosensei 8 Jun

I appreciate how you back up these price predictions with charts and figures. Must have taken you a lot of effort to do so.

1 sat \ 7 replies \ @k00b 7 Jun

Will Bitcoin hit $500,000 this cycle?

I hope not. I'm at least confident it won't fit some naive model.

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @fiksn 7 Jun

500k would sure mess up my stacking goal :)

PlanB said 100k by end of 2021, that's also the source of quite a lot of memes. 50k is half, but that doesn't work like this, he wasn't "half right" :) But I guess you can just delete the posts that don't feed the narrative. And either you're right or you're right next time.

Public service announcement, make sure to stop following those influencers that just speak about price and have no clue about bitcoin.

1 sat \ 2 replies \ @bitties OP 8 Jun

I love the hate these posts get, it fuels me.

Not discussing price does not make you a “better” Bitcoiner than someone else.

There is more than just your view on the world.

It is fun to discuss price. Always has been and always will be.

It’s like you are in third grade talking shit about what I do with my time. XD

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @fiksn 8 Jun

Don't get me wrong I am totally fine with some quality shitposting and price speculation / hopium posts :)

Also if you post bitties to 1 mil by 2025 or so is ok, what triggers me is the appeal to authority ala my infallible model shows the price is going to be XYZ. Subscribe for exact predictions. This is where the fun ends because noobs will use leverage and get rekt. I mean ok in the long run you could say it is a learning experience but still.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitties OP 8 Jun

I just feel like everyone is too ready to say “it’s wrong!”

Discussion about why it irks you, as you have just revealed -that is what I wanted to hear.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @bitties OP 8 Jun

You of all people should encourage any discussion. Instead you are toxic to anyone that doesn’t agree with you.

Says more about you.

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 8 Jun

I didn’t mean to sound toxic. I’m sorry if it sounds that way on your reading.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitties OP 8 Jun

Meh, maybe it’s me.