As the Eurozone grapples with a recession and escalating national debts, Russia's economy is surging with impressive growth rates while government remains at low levels. The Russian GDP grew by 5.4% annually in the first quarter of 2024, exceeding market expectations and continuing the robust recovery from the 2022 downturn caused by Western sanctions.
As a person who is 18 years old and comes from a country between the east and the west, i.e. from Poland, I will say this: the height is impressive, even slightly terrifying, seeing what it is like in Poland. However, I see a fact not discussed here, i.e. 1. it proves that whoever has the goods has the market. Russia happens to be a country with raw materials. The second thing I see is that, from what I know, Russia is getting rid of its gold assets, which allows it to finance the war economy. Fortunately or unfortunately, either gold or war has to end, and then there may be a temporary collapse of the economy.
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So my latest assessment is that Russia has built up massive gold reserves and is certainly not officially reporting a large part of its holdings.
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The Paris Saint Germain is hiring a Russian goalkeeper for 15 millions euros, isn't the sign that the war is over?
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It's the sign that football is broken
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Football was broken before. This business has no morals or values. The only thing that matters is money. A result of the Fiat world.
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War economies boom in the short-term due to arms and supplied spending, but is is unsustainable. They are making bullets, guns, uniforms, etc. for people who are dying by nature of the activity.
Ask Russian citizens in non-defense industries how it's going! Government fiat spending cannot create long-term economic growth.
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yes, that's the joke, that the fiatsystem thinks in these cycles and has the horizon of a field mouse.
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Where are these numbers coming from? Are these self-reported by Russian economists?
I am very hesitent when looking at data from Iran/Russia and China unless it is reported by an unbiased 3rd party. To be fair, the same goes with any government reported data from the western world as well lol.
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All figures come from national institutes that are more or less audited. It is right to be critical of data from government agencies. But it's a typical mistake that many make, that they don't realize that these are series of figures that tend to make sense - we have to work with the material that is presented to us, otherwise we can't orient ourselves at all.
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Yesterday Putin said he wants sanctions to be lifted, so I don't think everything is so good on his land.
Most of people say Dollars are great and stable, but we know the truth... I thinks the same situation with you diagram
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Is this more than just the normal bs way that GDP rises during wartime? I'm sure Russian government spending is through the roof.
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What I read is that they have increased spending but not significantly more than the EU and less than Papa Joe is pumping out in relation to GDP.
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That's quite interesting. I guess Russia has always maintained a fairly large military capacity, so maybe they didn't need to ramp it up like other nations tend to.
I see they had about a year of contraction, before this growth. That makes me wonder if it's their economy reorienting to being cutoff from the West. There must be a bunch of service industry that had to be developed domestically, but first their sectors that were connected to Europe had to contract.
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yes, the contraction is clearly rooted in the sanctions policy and the section from the european economy. but the rapid integration into the brics area that Putin is driving forward seems to be compensating for this very quickly
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Have you read anything about regional growth differences? It would be really interesting to see if the Asian parts of Russia are outgrowing the European parts.
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Unfortunately, I can't say for sure, but what I can say is that the large economic regions of St Petersburg, Moscow and Kaliningrad are extremely prosperous.
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I've always wondered how Russia has managed to hold on to Kaliningrad.
Are they isolated or is it easy to travel in and out?
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There is a road connection there that is secured by the military.
Some insiders tell the story that to fight sanctions and price growth all tariffs and limits on import were canceled. This is why sometimes life actually became cheaper in Russian Federation.
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That's quite interesting.
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The sanctions packages imposed by Europe on Russia seem to have been a double-edged sword, well, or a single-edged sword since it is only affecting Europe, what a bunch of incompetents.
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these sanctions and their persistent continuation and intensification show how stupid European policy has become. they have pushed Russia and China even closer together, exerted extreme pressure on the Russian economy to innovate and plunged themselves into a resource shortage and energy crisis. it really doesn't get any stupider than this!
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I have nothing more to add, you have explained everything, but I suspect that this was on purpose, nobody is that stupid, or am I wrong?
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To some extent, the political Karsten has actually decoupled itself from reality through the media cocoon and tied its entire fate to the weal and woe of Ukraine. they can no longer get out of it. but there is still a great interest in actively dragging the United States into this war through an escalating crisis and in this way evading responsibility and, above all, driving the Americans into a fiscal drama that would cover up the euro crash. Everything can also be a great cover story.
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Do you remember when the USA put the sanctions on, people were saying Russia wouldnt last a year. Now look at them, they dont even need the USA.
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 16 Jun
The majority lives in the bubble the msm creates for them. But that's ok as long as they shut up from time to time
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Very true. Many thought the war would be over quickly for Ukraine. But they have held on this whole time!
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I don't know if it's already been mentioned here, but Putin's peace proposal was rejected by the United States. Is Putin showing signs of desperation or is it just a diplomatic maneuver?
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this war of attrition is an extreme burden for both sides. but at this point the Russians have a clear advantage and are gaining ground. Putin will expand the catalog with every rejection of his proposals, which means that the costs for the other side will continue to rise. At this point he would have achieved his minimum goals, Ukraine would not be a NATO member, he would have the resource-rich regions of Luhansk and Donbass under control, a neutral buffer between the NATO states and Russia in this region and, above all, he would have finally secured Crimea as an important naval base under his control.
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At first glance, I also think Putin has some advantages, but is that really the case? I always have my doubts. I believe this war will end when one side runs out of money or when the people, whether Ukrainian or Russian, revolt.
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financially, the eurozone is on very thin ice right now. russia has very low national debt economic growth and has built up a strong alliance with China and the other states. in my opinion, russia has an advantage as an energy-strong country.
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Russian energy resources are a significant asset, possibly the main one. With Europe on the brink of a financial catastrophe, the only question is how much the United States is willing to invest in Ukraine.
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In 5 months this will be answered.
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Why did the U.S. not accept the treaty?
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Ukraine is the perfect credit pump and is currently massively inflating the nominal gross domestic product. The Europeans have lost their way and the military complex is setting the incentive structures.
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Putin's demands that Ukraine should withdraw from territory claimed by Moscow to end the Kremlin's invasion.
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The Russians seem much better tacticians than western politicians. Both militarily and economically.
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That's why our end-stage 'democracy' puts idiots and commies into office. It's not that the russian statists are geniouses
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It has to be. Russia is now able to trade with more freedom. Previously, it had to fulfil the demands of Eurozone and as Europe and USA collectively controlled the prices, Russia couldn't think beyond them. Now Russia is competing.
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under normal conditions, with normal leadership in the european states, this competitive situation would be excellent for european consumers as well. but there is nothing here to suggest that a rethink is taking place in the political castes. that is why i see more sanctions, capital controls, restrictions on movement and ultimately further deprivation of liberty for europeans in the pipeline.
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Good for them I say. It seems to me that EU needs Russia more than Russia needs EU (they would like to be part of it naturally). They have 9 time zones and untapped resources. If they were smarter they should declare BTC as currency as well and the things would change very quickly. We as people are smarter than that, we don't need endless wars but here we are.
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exactly, and that is what i have been trying to say for two years, again and again in an article: it is about the prospects for change. as libertarians, we must be careful not to be drawn into the maelstrom of nationalism and geopolitics. peacekeeping comes first. because which of these tyrants ends up ruling, Putin or Zelenski with his camarilla, plays a subordinate role from the perspective of the individual in this region. Peacekeeping is everything. Willingness to engage in dialog, diplomacy and trade. And whenever I raise this issue, these crazy people come crawling out of the caves, calling you a Putin understander or a Putin collaborator. This cruel, intellectually unclean way of dealing with historical processes has become unbearable
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It's too soon to judge. Many temporary factors can cause temporary spikes for periods as large as 4 years or more, while a catastrophic fall is rooting underneath all along due to the growth being falsely underpinned. It happened here in Argentina: during the first socialist government after the 2001 crisis, the country was booming and had all economic indicators in bright green for has long as 4 years. It turned out that all along it was just an elaborate scheme to make it look like the socialistic measures were working, and during the following years consequences were paid dearly.
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 15 Jun
yes, for me it is important to paint a complete picture of the situation. in the european media, for example, this is completely ignored. While the situation of the European economy is painted in a rosy light, where everything points to recession and de-industrialization.
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Problem is that the rest of the world is still doing worse. Europe is even still doing better (or more correctly, not yet doing as bad) as Argentina. The only thing that will correct all sensors lectures is a proper parameter. We aspire to be such parameter.
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"booms"
weapon production creates fiat circulation and therefore gdp but not quality of life
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Right. But same for the others involved
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For Ukraine sure. GDP numbers mean nothing there since the destruction of infrastructure isn't substracted from GDP.
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I don't know if it's already been mentioned here, but Putin's peace proposal was rejected by the United States. Is Putin showing signs of desperation or is it just a diplomatic maneuver?
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stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.