When I'm not using lightning, I look at the minimum feerate paid in the last few blocks. So long as the mempool isn't seeing a large number of incoming transactions, I usually go with that. If it's something more time sensitive, I stick with my wallet's recommendation, which typically overshoots.
I’ve noticed that some wallets massively overshoot the fee rate. What is that about?
It's mostly UX for the end users. Most people outside of BTC are used to near instant payments with their mobile apps- real easy to do with a centralized database.
A user who doesn't understand or care about watching fee rates just wants their funds sent ASAP - for them, higher fee rates are better (but not really).
fee rate will be calculated in satoshis per unit of data your transaction will consume on the blockchain, main reason i go with whatever my wallet says