Let the fireworks begin.

Would you agree that the BOJ seems reluctant to intervene once these supposed red lines are crossed? I have heard the opinion that 200 is a realistic level over the next 6 months, and there will only be intervention if the descent is seen as disorderly?

The Japanese Central Bank will need to do everything they can to defend their currency. I think selling all bonds could be a step in the right direction, but more importantly I think they need to take a position in Bitcoin (5-10%) of their treasury. What other way out is their for Japan?

I am sad only for the Japanese people; the Japanese government, like other governments, is the reason.

Sadly japanese economy got stucked in 1990s with no improvements. The rest of Asia is evolving, Japan still being a 1999 model economy.

Thanks to that my Japanese wife has been totally converted to Bitcoin. Until 2024 she was looking at her Bitcoin wealth in terms of JPY, now she doesn't care anymore if Bitcoin's price decrease in terms of the local currency... And she listens to Bitcoin podcasts hahaha.

So I’m thinking that the fall in the crypto markets is to do with the macro picture?

in the japan expat reddit they are posting about feeling the squeeze and feeling bad that they cant afford holidays anymore etc , none of them realise they need to be saving in btc, not yen

From 1999:

Milton Friedman argued that the ECB's monetary policy in the euro zone was too tight and that it should do quantitative easing to stimulate the economy, similar to his advice for the Bank of Japan in the late 1990s[1]. Friedman believed the euro was a mistake that would exacerbate economic and political tensions in Europe[2][4].

In 1997, Friedman recommended that the Bank of Japan increase the money supply by buying government bonds to boost economic growth and inflation[1]. However, Japan's current inflation strategy of targeting a 2% rate is exactly what Friedman warned against, as it requires the central bank to actively manage inflation expectations[3].

Friedman believed Japan's economic recovery from the 1970s oil crisis was due to government spending supplementing steady monetary growth, supporting Keynesian theory[5]. He also noted Japan's unique labor dynamics and government-business cooperation helped restrain inflation[5]. However, Friedman cautioned against overemphasizing the benefits of government intervention, arguing Japan's prosperity stemmed from its free market policies[5].

Sources [1] Friedman's Japanese lessons for the ECB - The Market Monetarist https://marketmonetarist.com/2012/08/15/friedmans-japanese-lessons-for-the-ecb/ [2] [PDF] Why the Euro is a Big Mistake - Collected Works of Milton Friedman https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/214327/full [3] Japan's Inflation Strategy Is Exactly What Milton Friedman Warned ... http://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-inflation-strategy-is-exactly-what-milton-friedman-warned-against-1478812240 [4] They Told You So: Economists Were Right to Doubt the Euro https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/19/business/history-echoes-through-greek-debt-crisis.html [5] [PDF] Japan — Free To Choose - Collected Works of Milton Friedman https://miltonfriedman.hoover.org/internal/media/dispatcher/271046/full

In theory this should also improve Japans export economic competitiveness

There are a few Japanese products (e.g. electronics, Whisky) that I would LOVE to get a 50% discount on.

Yen is a node or proxy to global dollar, the rules of the game is changing.

When the rule of the game changes, some player will be mad at debuffing their skills and some will get huge boost and few will be unaffected!

money is like a game.

Indeed, the intervention could trigger a significant chain reaction in the bond market, compelling central banks like the ECB to act swiftly to manage interest rate spreads and prevent capital flight.

The Yen is tied to the dollar. Its not the yen having problems, the problems are in the dollar. Until the USA figures out inflation, the yen will suffer.

It looks like the yen is strengthening? It's above 161 now. Maybe an intervention?