Lessons From the Cold War: Now Is the Time for De-Escalation

Lessons From the Cold War: Now Is the Time for De-Escalation - Antiwar.com original.antiwar.com/jonathan_grotefendt/2024/07/07/lessons-from-the-cold-war-now-is-the-time-for-de-escalation/

1793 sats \ 48 comments \ @kepford 8 Jul history

Most Americans think of the Cuban Missile Crisis as a time where we came uncomfortably close to nuclear exchanges with the Soviet Union. The truth is, though, things came much closer than they realize. Nuclear missiles staged in Cuba should be considered tame compared to what happened under the waves of the Atlantic off the coast of Florida and Cuba.

In October 1962, the Soviet Submarine B-59 was operating in the region. It was part of a Soviet flotilla dispatched to support Cuba. This mission was a critical component of the USSR’s strategic operations in the region, meant to challenge the U.S. naval blockade and deter any potential invasion of Cuba. And it should be noted: the Soviet Union’s decision to place missiles in Cuba was largely a response to the United States’ deployment of Jupiter ballistic missiles in Turkey and Italy. These American missiles were capable of striking the Soviet Union, and placing missiles in Cuba was seen by the Soviets as a way to restore the strategic balance. The move was intended to deter the U.S. from a first-strike capability and to protect the Soviet ally, Cuba, from potential American aggression.

You might think that the Soviets’ reasoning was unwarranted and an example of “unprovoked aggression”, but this was absolutely the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s intention. It was the highest brass after all which proposed Operation Northwoods. Proposed in March 1962, Operation Northwoods was a plan developed by the U.S. Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which suggested various covert operations and false-flag actions intended to justify a military intervention in Cuba. The plan included ideas such as staged terrorist attacks, hijackings, and other incidents to be blamed on the Cuban government. It sounds absolutely ridiculous, and people usually don’t believe me at first, but our leaders’ plan was literally to kill a bunch of our own civilians, then blame it on Cuba (and the USSR) in order to rally around the flag and justify an unnecessary war which would have surely led to the use of nukes. Thankfully for all of mankind, President John F. Kennedy rejected the proposal, and it was never implemented.

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1124 sats \ 29 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

Quite the time to complain about "escalation" when Russia intentionally blew up three Ukrainian hospitals in one day, including a children's cancer ward. I personally know someone who was in one of those hospitals.

All these claims of "escalation" are just excuses to try to let Russia get away with genocide. They're as absurd as the defund the police movement that is trying to get criminals "de-escalated" from the justice system. And not much different: Russians just want to exterminate Ukrainians and take their stuff. They're no different than common criminals.

If you actually want to stop escalation, punish evil. In the case of common criminals, throw them in jail and leave them there (or execute them). In the case of Russians, kill them and destroy their infrastructure. Ukrainians are happy to do it for us.

They're not stupid. They know they can't win a nuclear war, and all the top Russian leadership have family in the west. They know the only path to them winning is "anti-war" idiots like the OP.

313 sats \ 0 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

BTW the Kyiv children's hospital that Russia attacked today accepts donations via Bitcoin: https://www.ohmatdytfund.org/en/donate

Most Ukrainian organizations, military and civilian, that are accepting donations are also accepting them via Bitcoin.

13 sats \ 8 replies \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

@petertodd do you think the US/NATO leadership and the current person in power in Ukraine have the best interests of the Ukrainian people in mind? Or is it very possible they may also desire a prolonged war?

Why do you think that Russia invaded?

Why do you think the US is opposed to peace talks?

I think what Russia is doing is terrible btw and should stop.

113 sats \ 7 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

Who gives a fuck about US/NATO leadership? Obviously they don't have Ukraine's best interests at heart, because they are holding back Ukraine from being able to fight most effectively. The missiles that hit there three hospitals today all came from Russian airbases close to the border that Ukraine could easily blow up if only the US gave Ukraine permission.

Peace talks are idiotic. They've been done before. Russia just uses "peace" as a chance to rearm and try again. They have literally hundreds of years of history invading their neighbors.

How do you think Russia got so big? It's an imperialist culture that loves to invade and subjugate. The only solution is to prevent them from doing that, which is something you do with military force by killing Russians and destroying their industrial infrastructure.

13 sats \ 6 replies \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

The reason I care is because it sure seems like war could be exactly what some very evil military companies want to see. A long dragging war they can profit from at the expense of the people of Ukraine and Russia.

I'm not expert but it does not seem like the US government wants a resolution. Your characterization of Russia could be made by people that have lived under British rule or people that live under the current world order. I would argue that the US government is imperialist as well. The US method is less ugly but it is an empire. We have seen how the US props up dictators across the globe when it helps US "interests". Usually business interests.

Russia and a few other powers do not bend the knee to the US. Make no mistake though, They are terrible as well. Worse in most ways. But the direction of the West isn't good and we need to look at things from not only our side but other's points of view if we truly want to understand our world.

Even if you are dealing with a mad man nothing I'm saying is a bad course of action. Maybe you come to the conclusion that there is no other option but all out war. I just don't see most people even demonstrating a desire to understand what would lead the Russian people to continuing their support of Putin. Or even Putin's motives besides the typical talking points.

I don't know the truth but I find the usual talking points very suspect.

I appreciate you sharing your thoughts.

113 sats \ 5 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

If you want the war to end sooner, give Ukraine the weapons they need, and crucially, the permission to use them against Russian targets.

You don't make the war end sooner with "peace negotiations" and "ceasefires". That just sets the stage for Russia to come back again, which is how were in this mess in the first place.

Peace will be achieved when Russia is no longer capable of fighting. That requires us to kill Russians by the hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) and destroy their infrastructure. Not a difficult goal – Ukraine has already killed or seriously wounded hundreds of thousands of Russians and has already blown up a non-trivial % of Russia's oil and gas infrastructure. We simply need to keep at it.

13 sats \ 1 reply \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

Peter, do you believe the story of the civil war in Ukraine. Those ethnic Russians that wanted to leave the Ukraine and become their own nation?

That's Putin's actual pretext at the start. At least that is what I recall him saying. He's said many other ridiculous things since but I think most people forget that there was a civil war before this all started with Russian and NATO supporting Ukraine.

113 sats \ 0 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

The civil war narrative is nonsense. It was Russian troops fighting against Ukrainians.

If anything, Russia has done an excellent job of making "Russian speaking"¹ Ukrainians really hate Russia, as more of them have died in the past three years than any other group of Ukrainians. Mariupol for instance was slaughtered, and mostly Russian speaking.

Most Ukrainians speak Russian; I don't actually know any that can only speak Ukrainian myself.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Bell_curve 8 Jul

how many troops does Ukraine have? How many troops for Russia?

138 sats \ 1 reply \ @petertodd 8 Jul

Russia is short enough on troops that they've been forced to bring them in from outside Russia.

The two numbers aren't really comparable anyway as the two countries fight quite differently. Russia is happy to lose large numbers of troops in cheap "meat" attacks to make up for their shortages of decent weapons; Ukraine is not willing to do that, and (in theory) has access to much better weapons.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 8 Jul

Russian meat grinder

reply on another page

0 sats \ 18 replies \ @Bell_curve 8 Jul

Ukraine's challenge is manpower, the average age of their troops is 42 years

Russia has the manpower advantage.

They need to agree on a ceasefire before they run out of men.

123 sats \ 17 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

Ukraine is intentionally sending older soldiers to preserve their youth. The age isn't 42 years because they ran out of 18 year olds. It's 42 years so 18 year olds don't have to die.

Conscription focuses on older men; it doesn't even start until age 25. And that was only recently reduced from age 28!

I personally know someone in their early 30's whose 60 something father volunteered specifically so people his kids age wouldn't have to fight.

23 sats \ 14 replies \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

That is incredibly sad. Thank you for sharing

55 sats \ 13 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

No sense getting sad about it. Get angry, get more weapons to Ukraine with fewer restrictions, and fix the fucking problem by killing Russians and destroying their industrial infrastructure.

This is a very easy problem to fix. It's not even expensive to fix: we've seized hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Russian government assets that can easily fund it. And lots more of Russian assets can be seized too.

Post WW2 Germany was forced to pay trillions of dollars in reparations that went on for decades. We even made German civilians to provide forced labor to clean up the damage they caused on a huge scale, and German PoWs were forced to do land mine clearance. Russians are just as guilty and it's ethical to do whatever is needed to make them pay for their crimes.

13 sats \ 4 replies \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

You do realize your logic is exactly what Bin Laden used as his justification for attacking civilians?

Is it at all possible that the peoples of many nations are motivated by propaganda from their side? Half truths. Unfair characterizations made by evil men seeking at the expense of the plebs?

I for one do not approve of most of what the US government does. I do not provide my consent to their actions. I do not trust evil men that have shown they don't even know what the truth is.

34 sats \ 3 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

Who cares what justifications Bin Laden used? He's was a terrorist who hated the west, and we eventually killed him for it.

Russians on average know full well what their government is doing and they clearly, on average, support it. Russia is only now, after 10 years of invading Ukraine, finally getting around to trying to clamp down on VPNs and the like. The Russian governments problem is not the Russian people supporting Ukraine. The Russian people are just angry they're not winning.

13 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

You might as well say, "Who cares about logic".

Bin Laden justified the killing of innocents because their government invaded the lands of his people, placed military bases in them, and propped up secular dictators.

Russians are just as guilty and it's ethical to do whatever is needed to make them pay for their crimes.

Of course he is evil. You just used the same logic to justify killing Russians for the actions of their dictator. Or am I misunderstanding you? In the US we supposedly have the "consent of the governed". I reject Bin Laden's justifications. I'm just surprised to hear you espouse that same logic. Its a slippery slope that leads to endless war and escalation.

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0 sats \ 7 replies \ @Bell_curve 8 Jul

Russia won't stop until everyone agrees no NATO membership for Ukraine

Ukraine has to remain a neutral state

13 sats \ 5 replies \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

IIRC it was exposed by Wikileaks that the Obama admin knew that Ukraine joining NATO was a red line for Russia. This was not the story we'd here in the media. The story is more of what Peter is saying.

Regardless of cultural judgments on intent NATO is a military alliance that was created to defend against the USSR. I can completely understand why Russians watching its membership expand would be concerned about being surrounded by hostile neighbors. Now, as we have seen from leaked documents the US manipulates leadership of nations all over the globe. As a Russian with the same distrust that Americans have for them one can see why NATO and the US breaking their promises about NATO expansion would see this as a threat.

Most American's do not see this. After all, we are the good guys. I'm not saying the people have ill will. Its the rulers. Evil men like Putin can use this propaganda just as the overlords in the US use it to gain support for war. The people have little to gain from war but those in power on all sides do.

It is telling how people respond when I seek to understand the "bad guys". Not referring to Peter here but in general.

55 sats \ 4 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

If Russia doesn't want to be surrounded by hostile neighbors all it needs to do is stop invading their neighbors... The hostility is entirely their own doing. And completely justified. Ukraine is just one of a long list of countries Russia has invaded.

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13 sats \ 0 replies \ @petertodd 8 Jul

That's already been tried. It didn't work.

Russia doesn't attack NATO because that's suicidal; if Ukraine had been allowed into NATO none or this would have happened.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 9 Jul

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07/what-would-a-russian-victory-in-ukraine-look-like.htm

From the launch of the Special Military Operation, this site has warned that Russia could win the war and lose the peace. That risk is still very much in play. The political calculus behind the Special Military Operation and Putin’s goals of demilitarization, denazification and no NATO entry for Ukraine almost succeeded, with Ukraine agreeing to a draft outline of key terms in Istanbul in March-April 2022.

Russian officials have been pointedly silent on the question of what the end game for Ukraine might look like. One big reason is that is not how they conceptualize the military campaign. As we and others have repeatedly pointed out, Russia operates on Clausewitzian principles: destroy the enemy’s ability and will to fight, rather than focus on territory.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 9 Jul

Mind you, it is way over both my pay grade and access to information to solve this problem. The big point remains: Russia looks to have been put in a position where it will have to bite off a lot more than it ever wanted to chew. So what will it do?

68 sats \ 0 replies \ @wingalt 9 Jul

False flags are routine strategies to justification invasions, Kennedy didn't bite but it is hard to believe that his decision has nothing to do with his later assassination. Resist the war machine and it will take you out, whoever you are

110 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK 8 Jul

We are still not seeing any serious diplomatic efforts on the part of the West. The trip to Moscow by Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary, was only accompanied by the harshest criticism in the leading mainstream media, which shows me that this is by no means the end of the story. Here, Ukrainian people are being sacrificed into a meat grinder that doesn't have to be like this. Putin has repeatedly emphasized red lines, criticized the Nato-East expansion, mentioned the crisis in Donbass that has been going on for over 10 years and the Maidan crisis. Nothing is being seriously considered

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

This is the impression I get.

Another thing is that the US media and politicians haven't seen a war they don't like and the usual suspects are cheering on this war. Anyone suggesting negotiations is labeled as a Putin supporter. Its anti intellectual crap we saw during the Bush years after 911

68 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK 8 Jul

Warmongers that profit from any fuc..ng war in the world. Scumbags...

13 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK 9 Jul

Orwell hit the nail

13 sats \ 0 replies \ @anon 8 Jul

Here, Ukrainian people are being sacrificed into a meat grinder that doesn't have to be like this.

Ukrainians are the ones who are most against "diplomacy". We've been through this before. Russia has broken a long list of "peaces" every time using them as an opportunity to rearm and take more next time. There is nothing that Russia could do or promise.

Orban is a scumbag who is working to give the Russian military time to invade Ukraine again. He is a deeply evil person who is doing what he is doing because he's hoping to get his own piece of Ukraine (he's making claims that part of Ukraine ate rightfully Hungarian territory).

Negotiating with Russia is as absurd as negotiating with Nazi Germany. Exterminate them with force.

68 sats \ 1 reply \ @dollarparity 8 Jul

This is a strong reminder of the extremes some military leaders were willing to consider during this tense period.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford OP 8 Jul

Hey, someone that read the post.

34 sats \ 7 replies \ @Undisciplined 8 Jul

My wife and I started watching Fallout yesterday. The opening sequence is really well done. I found myself just getting furious that these power hungry psychopaths are being allowed to risk the entirety of human civilization.

Fix the money, fix the world. Sooner's better than later.