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39 sats \ 17 replies \ @kepford 13 Jul \ parent \ on: BREAKING: Trump Rushed Off Stage After SHOTS FIRED news
How does it change what? Curious
This gives Trump a realistic, I dare to say certain chance to win now
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His odds increased by 10 percent in betting markets
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I mean, I thought the debate sealed it. But this is a whole other level.
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The debate sounded the alarm, that's for sure, but it couldn't have any effect in the end result, because Biden voters are not about presence and reason but about fear and hate. People who votes for Biden fears and hates Trump, arguments are nearly excuses. Biden could have shitted his pants on the debate, not a single vote would have changed because "I don't care, Trump is Hitler and Biden will cancel my student loan". Period. Feminine votes also go "oh poor grandpa Biden, he his so cute, Trump is such an insolent violent brute!!! DX", which by itself is 50% of the votes, not counting the rest. Biden was going to win.
The shooting now shifts the fear and sympathy compass. The majority of people will now fear Biden, and emotional sympathy will go towards Trump. There's still a long time ahead, and people will soon forget this out of evasion, so he must capitalize this quickly
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Always interested to hear great analysis from outside America
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Thank you Sr, my pleasure :)
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That's a solid analysis, but I think it's too absolutist, initially. There has been a steady stream of people snapping out of the Democrats' cult, as lie after lie from the corporate press is exposed.
There are a lot of people who don't pay a ton of attention and are just Default Democrats. They're well behind people who are paying attention, but they react reasonably to the news that makes it to them.
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I know, but it takes decades for those factors to even start to shift the compass. Mass inertia is what defines the outcome at the end of the day, and the course of the youth has the last saying on that. The USA youth as been brainwashed not only by standard media but by a lot independent influencers, for decades. No amount of evidence can change that course significatively unless decades go by, by which time a new generation comes in fresh. That's barely "starting to start starting" now. That's why a swan event was needed to produce such a dramatic change in such a short period of time.
In our case the new youth was the only factor that shifted the compass. All of the factors you mentioned occurred, yet it fell short from being able to produce the change. It will take decades to take effect by itself, that's why the youth was so critical at achieving the change so fast. Boomers almost send us back to a decades long socialist downward spiral, in despite of all of the evidence and etc. Even TODAY they protest at Milei's non-socialist decisions, but vow for him solely out of fear to kirchnerism and because their sons asked them to do so.
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I'd say we're roughly a decade into this trend. It started with the woke insanity on college campuses. It's also not the younger generation as a whole. Opinion polling indicates that Gen Z women, specifically, have become radically left-wing, while Gen Z men have fairly normal political views (you could reasonable argue those are dangerously left-wing, though).
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I sense a lot by what YouTube shows, despite the critics, it's a good trend indicator. It's only this year that I have seen the appearance of the first group of USA young comedians with explicit anti-woke themes, mocking its ridiculousness AND being really successful in the process. I have seen the anti-woke trend since it started, but it wasn't a movement of the youth, that's making it's first baby steps now. Trump has now the biggest responsibility on the destiny of the country since Lincoln.
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I'd say the start of that trend, though, is the loss of popularity of woke comedians, which has been going on for several years.
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What a huge swing in outcomes. We just dodged an all out civil war by half an inch. Thank God!
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I really don't think USA is nowhere near a civil war. The vast majority of people is apolitical and will refuse any violence. The violent groups that could arise already exists, like Antifa, and are a microscopic minority, alive only due to serving as the shook troops of the socialists in power. It will end as soon as they are removed from power, for the inflow of money from public funds will dwindle.
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Fortunately, we didn't learn how close we are.
Tens of millions of Americans think the election was stolen from them last time. If their candidate were killed this time, while ahead in the polls, it would get really ugly.
Those are the Americans who actually own and know how to use deadly weapons, btw. The Antifa leftists are mostly just LARP'ing at being violent revolutionaries.
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The real mess would occur if the army itself divides. The socialists use violence of small groups indirectly, they are not a force in themselves, and those groups are too small to face armed citizens that will just defend themselves. In that case the army will have a pacifying role with which the majority will agree, thus avoiding a bigger scale conflict. The social atmosphere would get unbearably tense, that's for sure, but at that point mass immigration is the most probable outcome.
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