Polymarket and PredictIt are both prediction markets, but they currently have quite a difference in odds for the Presidential election.
Any idea why this is Stackers?
Polymarket too bullish on Trump because it is crypto based? Or is someone putting their finger on the scale on PredictIt as the part of the “Kamala is totally awesome” gaslighting campaign? Something else?
Sats for all,
GR
manifold.markets:
https://m.stacker.news/43112
Another data point.
Polymarket may have different financial rules, if it's crypto-based. I'm not familiar with it, but I recall that there are a lot of restrictions on using Predictit.
It's easier to imagine Predictit being used as part of a gaslighting campaign.
I guess poly market would be global so maybe it’s just a case that the rest of the world isn’t as privy or susceptible to the gaslighting campaign.
It's changing fast, so maybe there's a lag.
I still think it might be due to the restrictions at Predictit. I think you can spam Predictit with lots of max buys, because there's a fairly low cap. That would make it difficult for the authentic bettors on the other side to balance it out, because there aren't as many of them and they individually aren't allowed to wager more.
That's at least how it worked at one point. I haven't checked it out in a while.
No USA betting on polymarket
Really?
But Canada can bet!
When there is a lightning prediction market I will go wild.
this is it, I think. I remeber when I tried, i could access polymarket without problems, but not predictit.
Here are some real Odds!Here are some real Odds!
https://m.stacker.news/43122
PredictIt doesn't use real money so you can't arbitrage.
Generally Manifold and PolyMarket are more accurate.
Also worth looking at Nate Silver - I think his model is in line with Manifold.
From perplexity
PredictIt imposes several key betting limits on traders:
These betting limits are a key feature of PredictIt's regulatory structure, allowing it to operate legally while still providing opportunities for dedicated traders to profit significantly through skill and strategy.
Sources
[1] Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3iQryHA4tnAvPZEv/limits-of-current-us-prediction-markets-predictit-case-study
[2] How I Turned $400 into $400000 Trading Political Futures https://luckboxmagazine.com/trends/how-i-turned-400-into-400000-trading-political-futures/
[3] This site bet big on political gambling. Regulators want it shut down. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/24/predictit-gambling-on-politics/
[4] Political gambling has a murky future. Want to bet on it? https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2023/08/07/political-gambling-has-a-murky-future-want-to-bet-on-it-00110036
[5] PredictIt Basics - Predicting Politics https://predictingpolitics.com/predictit-basics/
[6] PredictIt - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt
[7] Make Money Betting on Politics - Arbitrage with Predictit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNSqsPlDyGc
[8] What Betting Markets Do, and Don't, Tell Us About Elections https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-31/what-betting-markets-like-polymarket-predictit-tell-us-about-2024-election
No real money?
What’s the point with fake money? Ego and bragging rights?
I signed up for Predict It
I can't place a bet until they verify my identity
I had no idea it wasn't real money. I can't take it seriously then. Democrat staffers could have made thousands of accounts to place fake bets on Kamala.
You can't bet more than 850 bucks
Polygon has no limits
So you can bet real money. There are just limits. Because yesterday someone said it is fake money.
My account has been verified.
I forgot I signed up in 2019.
I have lost every bet except one: Amy Barrett for scotus
Won a whopping 93 cents in 2020
I noticed the odds changed a bit with the market sell off today.
Outdated information
I'm still waiting to get verified
Does this mean you could buy Kamala Yes and Kamala No on the respective exchanges, putting up $0.91 and realizing $1 at outcome?
Yes exactly this. Fred Krueger posted this on Twitter this week
I don’t know exactly how they work but yes theoretically you should be able to arb them.
This is messed up.
But I bet it is based on how much someone bets.
So Trump must be leading in money.
It’s odd that there is such a discrepancy between the two.
As more people bet on harris, the price difference should become closer.
Yes but what’s odd is they are betting on her on one platform but not the other. They should both have similar odds otherwise you could arbitrage the difference.
Just different platforms.
I have seen this happen before.
The odds will converge as more people bet, usually...
You’re likely right.
Do you know when the betting took off?
Not sure
Predict doesn’t use real money
Slightly off topic, but I find the idea of prediction markets quite intriguing.
I hope that we will soon have a bitcoin / nostr based platform.
From perplexity
PredictIt is an online prediction market that allows users to place bets on political and financial events[2]. Here are some key points about PredictIt:
Sources
[1] PredictIt https://www.predictit.org
[2] PredictIt - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt
[3] This site bet big on political gambling. Regulators want it shut down. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/24/predictit-gambling-on-politics/
[4] What Betting Markets Like Polymarket, PredictIt Tell Us About 2024 ... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-31/what-betting-markets-like-polymarket-predictit-tell-us-about-2024-election
[5] PredictIt 2020 Presidential Election Markets - 270toWin https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit-2020-presidential-election-odds
[6] PI https://twitter.com/PredictIt
Polymarket has much higher volume than Predict.
Hence more reliable
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8075/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
From Brave search ai or Leo:
Decentralization: Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform operating on the Ethereum blockchain with Polygon for scalability, offering lower fees and greater privacy. PredictIt, on the other hand, is a centralized platform regulated by U.S. authorities, imposing limits on trading and market creation.
Fees: Polymarket's decentralized nature results in lower transaction costs compared to PredictIt's centralized platform with higher fees.
Market Variety: Polymarket offers a broader range of markets, providing more flexibility in trading. PredictIt, while accessible to U.S. residents, has a limited range of markets due to regulatory restrictions.
Accessibility: PredictIt is accessible to U.S. residents, while Polymarket is not, due to regulatory restrictions.
Comparison of Odds
Kamala Harris' Appointment: Polymarket predicts an 81% chance of Harris being officially appointed as vice president, while PredictIt forecasts 85%.
Trump's Presidential Odds: Polymarket's traders signal a 72% chance of Trump retaking the White House, while PredictIt's odds are not explicitly mentioned in the provided search results.
Scoring and Reliability
Polymarket: Considered more reliable than PredictIt due to PredictIt's high fees and low trading caps, which can reduce price accuracy.
Election Betting Odds: An aggregate of real-money prediction markets, including Polymarket and PredictIt, provides a consensus forecast.
In Summary
Polymarket and PredictIt are both prediction market platforms, but they differ significantly in their decentralized vs centralized structure, fees, market variety, and accessibility. Polymarket's decentralized nature and lower fees make it an attractive option for traders seeking greater flexibility and privacy, while PredictIt's centralized platform and regulatory restrictions limit its market offerings and accessibility.
Predict It has been way off in the past but also excellent. Hit or miss.
Predict It was wrong about Brexit in 2016 like everyone else.
But they got the GOP primary for governor in AZ: Kari Lake
I think your second guess is on the nose - somebody putting their finger on the scale as part of the gaslighting campaign.
Love a good conspiracy
Walz is not the favorite to be Kamala's bitch not Shapiro
Didn’t they leak it was Shapiro the other day?
Yes, the idiotic mayor of Philadelphia
I thought Shapiro for certain then today happened
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
https://electionbettingodds.com/DemocratVicePresident_2024.html
Trump is domenating
USA bettors vs non USA bettors
Predict is more heavily regulated and has betting limits
Polymarket