James Lavish / @jameslavish / Bitcoin Investor AMA \ stacker news ~AMA

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James Lavish / @jameslavish / Bitcoin Investor AMA

60.8k sats \ 78 comments \ @jameslavish 23 Aug AMA

Hey everyone, some of you may know me from X/Twitter (@jameslavish) or through my newsletter, The Informationist (www.jameslavish.com), where my goal is to simplify financial concepts for anyone to understand.

I’ve worked on the floor of the NYSE, at big investment banks and pretty big hedge funds. So, I can give some insight into that world and thinking around Bitcoin, in particular. You know, the ETFs, institutional barriers, adoption, etc.

Some other stuff. I lived in Texas for over 20 years, where I got some pretty cool cowboy boots and learned to make a mean brisket.

And before all this, I was a hockey player at Yale and for a short while after. So, we can talk about that, too.

I’ll be here for an hour starting 12pm PT/3pm ET, AMA!

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333 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 23 Aug

The Bitcoin opportunity fund has made a concerted effort to distinguish itself as bitcoin, not crypto, focused. Bitcoin still gets conflated with crypto amongst the media talking heads and politicians- although we are getting more references to "bitcoin and crypto" rather than just crypto. Among the investment community are you seeing a better understanding of the difference between Bitcoin and broader crypto or do they still see it as one big "digital assets" bucket?

cc: @siggy47

265 sats \ 2 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

To be honest, this has been and continues to be a long confusing road for most institutions. The big leap occurred when the spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved first. This immediately demonstrated how Bitcoin is different from all other crypto. That said, MSM still conflate the two regularly and this just confuses the issue. Also, politicians continue to conflate them as well (purposefully in some cases). So, I think the growth in understanding will come with the growth in the MV of Bitcoin and institutional investors being compelled to figure it out themselves. And I think this happens over the next 18 months.

41 sats \ 1 reply \ @beerussama 23 Aug

It is the other way around the approval of Bitcoin ETF is the only way Wall Street and MSM would or could express clearly that they are abdicating, surrendering, retreating and capitulating after years of saying that Bitcoin is a Ponzi Scheme.

41 sats \ 0 replies \ @028559d218 24 Aug

They're not capitulating yet. Most people (if not the vast majority) seemingly have no idea what it is.

367 sats \ 7 replies \ @IamSINGLE 23 Aug

Hey James thanks for the AMA!

I wanna get your views on ETFs, especially, how they can impact the future of Bitcoin in a negative way by any chance?

105 sats \ 6 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Well, I believe the ETFs are a great path to rapid adoption for institutions and as a whole will be a big positive for the space. The said, as we have seen, the markets can be disjointed at times with the ETFs only trading market hours and the spot trading 24/7. Also, there is always a non-zero probability that the custodian of one of these ETFs somehow mis-steps or fails. Probably a much lower probability than an individual losing keys, etc., but the scale would be much larger and possibly catastrophic to many individuals. I don't count this as a significant probability, but it cannot be ignored entirely.

10 sats \ 5 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 23 Aug

So you dont see ETFs as undermining the original purpose of Bitcoin which was to create a decentralised P2P MoE payments?

21 sats \ 4 replies \ @028559d218 24 Aug

Gotta start somewhere if the whole world is to be eventually onboarded.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 24 Aug

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSv0J4bfBCc If you can still hold that viewpoint after watching the above video from Andreas Antonopoulos please explain your informed reasoning because Antonopoulos argues in it that ETFs fundamentally endanger the integrity of the protocol...and I've not heard any convincing argument put forward to refute this point.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @028559d218 24 Aug

my thoughts. i love anton's videos and am a huge fan. i have watched many of them and he is always really really insightful.

however... i think saying etfs are 'bad' is kinda misleading. etfs are the gateway drug for wallstreet to bitcoin imo.

for better or for worse... the world may not be ready 'yet' for bitcoin to replace the dollar, or seriously compete with the dollar/euro/yen as a literal money or currency. Could it one day? yes i think it's entirely possible. but im not sure the world is ready for that yet.

governments would face a serious, meaningful competition to their own 'cash' or fiat as a store of value and potentially medium of exchange... and who would want to hold bonds if they could just hold bitcoin instead?

in other words, treating bitcoin as a commodity is an easy way for governments to 'face' the prospect of bitcoin and 'keep it in a box' so it doesn't threaten their power and control too much. so it doesn't scare them. i don't think their plan will work however - but i do think treating bitcoin as an etf commodity is a way for government to 'soften' the impact of bitcoin at least for now... however it's a trojan horse. eventually the etfs will pump the price... and more people will learn what keys are and want to hold their own. after all the nodes control the protocol not the miners and certainly not the etfs holding a few massive addresses.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 24 Aug

You clearly did not watch Andreas' video as you completely ignore all the facts and issues he raises.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @028559d218 24 Aug

i had not watched this but ill check it out. thank you

449 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter 23 Aug

Hi James! Thanks for all the fine work you've been doing.

What would be the best way to Orange Pill someone?

165 sats \ 1 reply \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Show them (don't tell them) how the money is broken and Bitcoin protects them from the fiat madness.

75 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 23 Aug

Thanks! Yes, showing them should work. I also belive in showing rather than just telling and keep telling.

364 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter 23 Aug

What are your views about Indian economy? Where do you see India in the next decade?

95 sats \ 1 reply \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

I have not studied India, but it is not a secret that the economy is growing rapidly and with a young demographic this can continue. Challenges may be around energy, but this can be solved IMO.

75 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 23 Aug

Thanks! So far it's going good here. I just wish that India becomes proactive for Bitcoin as well, which it isn't right now.

172 sats \ 1 reply \ @spraveenitpro 23 Aug

Hi James, we may have cross paths at the vancouver Bitdevs, Considering the housing situation in greater Vancouver area, what strategy would be suggest to purchase a home with Bitcoin stack in the next 5-7 years, definitely after the next halving. 🙏🏽

190 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Maybe! Let's see, I think of a home as an integral and important part of my life, not just an investment. Because homes should keep their value and increase with inflation, this shouldn't be an issue, IMO. The only question would be how much Bitcoin would you be willing to part with to buy a home? I err on the smaller side of houses, but that's me, after living in way too large of a house in Dallas and sometimes not entering rooms for months... Also, there will likely be ways to borrow against your Bitcoin in the near future which would allow you to use as collateral without selling. This will be something to consider in 5 or 7 years IMO.

183 sats \ 2 replies \ @dontforgetthekeys 23 Aug

Hi James, Thank you for taking the time to come do this AMA on SN!

2024 has marked the beginning of accumulation by pension funds through the introduction of the ETFs, as well as the continuation of corporate treasury bitcoin adoption.

Do you see sovereign wealth funds following course in 2025?
Are there any "WOW" moments you see coming in 2025? (not limited to bitcoin)

141 sats \ 1 reply \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

The WOW moments I see in 2025 will be with the addition of Bitcoin to the treasuries of some big companies (think S&P 500), this will precipitate a wider adoption IMO. And as for sovereigns, if they are accumulating, they will keep it as quiet as they can for the time being and so I expect we wouldn't know, even if they are already.

And I think that will happen before 2030.

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @dontforgetthekeys 23 Aug

Thank you

146 sats \ 1 reply \ @ken 23 Aug

James, I owe at least 50% of my journey into the world of Bitcoin to you. I'm an engineer who was blissfully unaware of how money was broken. You totally opened my eyes to the unsustainable nature of runaway government debt.

Thanks for spreading your wisdom!

95 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Ah thank you Ken, I sincerely appreciate that and this makes it all worth it!

141 sats \ 1 reply \ @justin_shocknet 23 Aug

Why does Dallas have better brisket than Austin?

ducks

120 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Haha. Texas has the best brisket in the country, and the absolute best I have ever had was at a tiny roadside shack out in super rural hill country. The place was literally falling down and behind a row of mesquite.

Ate outside at a picnic table, had a plate of fantastic juicy brisket and the flavor was immense.

141 sats \ 1 reply \ @nichro 23 Aug

Thanks for your time doing this.

Have you noticed or heard of trends pertaining to the kind of people who inquire about Bitcoin to their advisors? Are there "archetypes" they can be split into, and is there more interest since ETFs by individuals or business entities?

151 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

There's definitely more interest across the board, as far as I have seen. The ones asking about Bitcoin tend to be smaller family offices or pensions that have less red tape and more flexibility in their investing mandates, thus far. That said, I see this shifting dramatically in the next year or so. As far as individuals, the ones asking are definitely in the high net worth category, as they obviously have much more discretionary capital to invest right now. I am getting more calls from those friends than the ones who have been struggling, no surprise I suppose.

213 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 23 Aug

Hey James. Awesome that you are doing this.

What was your most memorable moment playing hockey?

295 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

oooh. This is a tough one. Probably a tie between scoring a goal against the prior-year's NCAA champion Harvard team in my first game as a freshman for Yale. I still have that puck in my bookshelves ;) And the other time was stepping out onto the ice against the Russians, wearing the USA jersey when I was playing for the US National Team in 1993.

144 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 23 Aug

Thanks for doing this. I'm curious about the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. That's an all-star lineup you have put together. (I'm a big fan of Larry Lepard too.) Can you highlight one or two startups you have found that may change the landscape with innovative ideas in the next few years?

217 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Hey Siggy, thank you. We have a number of exciting investments in startups. One of our favorite young companies is Cormint, a company that is leveraging stranded green energy in West Texas to mine Bitcoin and augment the grid. For Q2 2024, Cormint was ranked 1st on Hashcost and Cost per Bitcoin because of this dynamic. We think this represents a fantastic model for energy expansion and making struggling energy providers valid. This type of mining model can help change the energy landscape not just here but across the world.

443 sats \ 5 replies \ @Coinsreporter 23 Aug

What are your views about Stacker News?

207 sats \ 4 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

just learning about it. I like it so far!

75 sats \ 3 replies \ @Coinsreporter 23 Aug

Cool! I've posted so many links down under your bio here #659290 Be a good learner and don't forget to read them word by word. They are the best pieces to know how to go about using Stacker News!

162 sats \ 2 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

awesome thank you!

75 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter 23 Aug

You're most welcome, Sir!

Thank to you for taking time to enlighten all of us here. I hope you take some regular time for SN regularly.

A comment or a little post from you will do a lot for all of us. We're a tribe known for adding value to value!

174 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Right on 👊

164 sats \ 1 reply \ @rodpalmer 23 Aug

Thanks for doing this James. My name is Rod Palmer and I'm one of the managing editors at The Bugle.

You are one of the most respected Macro Elders in the Bitcoin space which is probably due to the fact that you played hockey which is a badass sport. In hockey you probably took a massive hit or a slapshot to the body which hurt way more than you could have prepared for or expected, do you have any experiences working in finance, as a trader, or a hedge fund manager where something similarly unexpected happened? Maybe you had a trade go against or a you took too big of a position which went to zero and cost you, which hurt way more than you were expecting?

83 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Oh yes, I've experienced this a number of times. But one that I was totally blindsided by was with an arbitrage trade we had on in the GE/HON merger. It was by far the largest position in our book. Everyone expected all the approvals to come in, and the DOJ/FTC had approved it, shareholders had approved it, and at the last minute, before closing, the EU decided to block the merger on their own antitrust review. We lost about $40 million in just three minutes. A painful learning lesson for us.

122 sats \ 1 reply \ @PinWizard0 23 Aug freebie

Can you recommend a book or course on getting stating with option trading?

74 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Hey PinWizard, Options as a Strategic Investment by Larry McMillan is the one I learned from and an oldie but goodie, IMO.

51 sats \ 1 reply \ @endothermicdev 23 Aug

Hi James, thanks for the AMA. I've noticed Vanguard seems very reluctant to soften their opposition to bitcoin - not only have they sat out on the bitcoin ETF game, they're also not allowing their customers any exposure to bitcoin. I can't tell if it's an inflexible corporate strategy, hubris, or maybe they're signaling values to a different sort of clientele. Do you have any insight into their reluctance?

532 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

I have zero insight into their thinking and believe that it is not just foolish, but they will lose assets over this. I also believe they will change their stance in the next 12 to 24 months. But that is my uninformed opinion and just competitive market driven expectation.

51 sats \ 1 reply \ @benwehrman 23 Aug

Where do you put your excitement for Nostr compared to Bitcoin?

More/less/equal?

112 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Hey Ben, I love Nostr and will continue to work on being more present there. I think my long term excitement is higher for Bitcoin at this point, but it is clear that Nostr is becoming increasingly essential for our freedom of speech. If Elon had not taken control of Twitter, I believe Nostr would already be more important today.

51 sats \ 2 replies \ @anon 23 Aug

Is there anything related to bitcoin adoption that has you excited? Any technical development work you are keeping up with?

95 sats \ 1 reply \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

I am most excited about improving interfaces for 2nd layer solutions, making organic adoption of Bitcoin outside of just a SoV and as an easy and ready means of exchange, especially for people in oppressed or developing countries. I am keeping my eye out for this type of development.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Onionsman 24 Aug

I love this response you gave.

This is something I'm working to solve with Bitpension.

I have a question though: what do you think of pension regulation and how a bitcoin startup can play there?

41 sats \ 2 replies \ @oliverweiss 23 Aug

Do you personally hold any other cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin?

526 sats \ 1 reply \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

nope

11 sats \ 0 replies \ @oliverweiss 23 Aug

👍

52 sats \ 2 replies \ @TheMorningStar 23 Aug

Who's your favourite journalist?

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

I've honestly gotten away from mainstream media the past few years, due to severe bias of large publishers like NYT, etc. and so I have no clear favorite. That said, I am open ears to find one if you have any recs! With your handle, are you a writer in FW?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 23 Aug

Matt Taibbi

62 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Since we got off to a late start here with Kennedy speaking, I'll be on here for an extra 30 mins, FYI!

112 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 23 Aug

What wood do you prefer to smoke brisket with? Preferred rub? What temp do you pull it?

64 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

I'm a big fan of heavy mesquite smoke! I love John Henry's Texas Brisket Rub, and I pull it at 203*!

112 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 23 Aug

What's one thing you believe about bitcoin that few bitcoiners believe?

128 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

That it can literally save humanity from itself.

112 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 23 Aug

Who is the smartest person you ever met?

117 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

This is a tough one, as I've met some brilliant people in the hedge fund space. But I have to say, every time I speak with Michael Saylor, I feel like I am just trying to keep up. His mind moves so fast and is sharp as a Navy Seal Ka-bar Knife.

112 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 23 Aug

Are real hedge funds anything like the ones in the show Billions?

107 sats \ 0 replies \ @jameslavish OP 23 Aug

Haha. Good question. Let's put it this way, the founder never walks around oblivious to the screens like Bobby Axelrod does, there's a whole lot more trading and negotiating activity on the trading floor, there are clear agreements with the portfolio managers on payouts and bonuses, and yeah, there are no psychologists on payroll.

That said, the flashiness and money is real. The houses and cars and ridiculous dinners, crazy obsessions and collections, etc. all pretty accurate. And a lot of the attitude is accurate, too.

39 sats \ 2 replies \ @leonidastouch 23 Aug

ETFs and the first ever public keys that they will disclose to the public would really put Bitcoin price into higher than high levels. They really need to disclose their public keys or else it is just Godzilla style scam without a backing of real Bitcoin.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Diego 23 Aug

Didn’t Bitwise declare theirs?

55 sats \ 0 replies \ @beerussama 24 Aug

How about Black Rock.

22 sats \ 0 replies \ @EverythingSatsoshi 23 Aug

Thought on the TIDES payout mechanism in Ocean

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryotosensei 24 Aug

Too late for the party, it seems!

Since you said that you respect Michael Saylor’s mind, what do you think is his end game for MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stash?

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitcoinIsTheFuture 24 Aug

Love following you on X and podcasts. As a young father learning more about Bitcoin, what advice do you have?

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @TwoLargePizzas 23 Aug

Hi James! I've often wondered if your time as a hockey player has given you any unique perspectives in the investment world?

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB 23 Aug

iPhone or android?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBrokenRuler 24 Aug

Has Japan been able to stabilize in an way? It seems like a few weeks ago there was a lot doom and gloom out there, but recently nothing? I suspect something is brewing... Do you expect anything wild before the election ion November?

https://m.stacker.news/47875

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitcoingraffiti 24 Aug

wen moon?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satoshi__Nakamoto 23 Aug

Welcome sir I have follow you on Twitter. Glad to see you here Thanks sir you are doing all these for us

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Octopus 24 Aug outlawed

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