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21 sats \ 20 replies \ @didiplaywell 31 Aug \ parent \ on: Kamala's Housing Plan Will Make Housing Even More Expensive econ
Trump didn't had a woman in from of him prior. The recent economic crisis must have negatively impacted the rate of new couples forming due to economic constraints to form a family, plus all the new generation of woman indoctrinated in woke ideology and still unmarried. And we are not counting democrat couples. It's to much weight on favour of Kamala.
I'm of course not talking about what I want to happen but about what I calculate will happen. Numbers are on favour of Kamala. It's terrifying.
You know that the only election he's ever won was against a woman right?
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Hilary was old, it doesn't count, it was like having biden in front of him. That points to the other positive on Kamala's side: she's much younger. A young, "black/latina" woman. Game over.
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You're moving the goal posts. That kind of demographic analysis comes up every election cycle and it almost never pans out. She's intensely unlikable, which will keep many women and minorities from supporting her.
Here are my predictions:
- Fewer than half of women who are eligible to vote will vote for Kamala
- She'll do worse with black voters than Biden did
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I want to believe you. I'm highly pessimistic on this one.
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I have the same gut feeling that I had in 2016. Someone that uncharismatic can't win a national election. Now, they might just cheat. That wouldn't surprise me.
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You can rig hundreds or thousands of votes. But that's only useful if the elections are way too balanced, as when Biden won. Like, ok, Trump might have been the one to win that state by +200 instead of losing by -500, but... in a state of 10.000.000 voters? ...such a lame difference? When the difference is so small it's meaningless, and by all means the right decision is power alternance in such scenario.
So what you have to look at is not if they "have" to cheat but if they can cheat. If they can barely tick the compass so to make it change direction, then the compass is broken. It's key to address that because after Biden won, Trump voters remained convinced that everything happened solely due to cheating and no auto-correction was ever made. Now, no correction has been made, and for many choosing Trump has become solely a way to not to chose Kamala. That's not how you get things straight. The core problem must be addressed.
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You're right and they seem to realize the need to run up the margins in the would be swing states.
I actually think the potential scale of electronic vote switching is large enough to determine outcomes, without being overly suspicious. Not to mention, as we're seeing in Venezuela, if the regime declares an outcome and insists upon it, there's no easy remedy.
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Electronic voting adds a unneeded layer of obscurity, that's for sure. But the problem in USA is still the compass. You might gain some air short-term by trying to build up immediate electoral margins but that's not a plan a Nation can rely on long-term. It's a "lets make trump less of a bad decision for some by showing how worse of a decision kamala is". That phrase right there is the whole problem.
And that was our problem. Our "Trump", Macri, lost to that. In our case his defeat was disheartening to the point of trauma, and that helped the build up of an alternative when Milei started pointing out, for the first time ever, that our "Trump" was just as bad of an alternative. With nicer manners, a more conservative profile, for sure, but as bad nonetheless, and that was the reason for his defeat. Embracing defeat was what allowed that maturing process that made Milei possible. The moment Trump voters go "ok, we lost because we deserved it, what's the background problem here we must address", that's the moment you will achieve the impossible. But no, you have "Project 2025" which is a cult-like movement that states that Trump did nothing wrong and the solution is no other correction than getting "more pure" people around him so that his perfection do not gets stained.
In Michigan the number of citizens age 18 years and over is 77 percent. However the voter registration rate is 83 percent. Obviously the 83 percent is wrong, a blatant over count.
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Her problem is likability especially outside of California.
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She has to pretend to be a moderate. Will voters believe her transformation?
Most importantly will voters in Pennsylvania believe her when she says she will not ban fracking
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Do not underestimate people' stupidity. The same thing happened here: in 2019 the same party that always did the wrong thing promised to not to do it "this time" and people was so disappointed with our "Trump" (Macri) that they wanted to believe it. And that's a rock-solid psychological force at play: if there's the slightest reason for people in Pennsylvania to not to vote Trump, they will be unavoidably biased to be willing to believe Kamala, actively forcing aside rational thought. I confidently predict people will believe Kamala, not out of rationale, but because they want to do so. They desperately want it to be true. That's an immovable psychological force in a context of despair, specially in a country strongly educated in the concept of faith.
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