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21 sats \ 21 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 31 Aug 2024 \ parent \ on: Kamala's Housing Plan Will Make Housing Even More Expensive econ
Trump has won with married women in both of his campaigns. Kamala will dominate with unmarried women, though.
Trump didn't had a woman in from of him prior. The recent economic crisis must have negatively impacted the rate of new couples forming due to economic constraints to form a family, plus all the new generation of woman indoctrinated in woke ideology and still unmarried. And we are not counting democrat couples. It's to much weight on favour of Kamala.
I'm of course not talking about what I want to happen but about what I calculate will happen. Numbers are on favour of Kamala. It's terrifying.
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You know that the only election he's ever won was against a woman right?
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Hilary was old, it doesn't count, it was like having biden in front of him. That points to the other positive on Kamala's side: she's much younger. A young, "black/latina" woman. Game over.
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You're moving the goal posts. That kind of demographic analysis comes up every election cycle and it almost never pans out. She's intensely unlikable, which will keep many women and minorities from supporting her.
Here are my predictions:
- Fewer than half of women who are eligible to vote will vote for Kamala
- She'll do worse with black voters than Biden did
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I want to believe you. I'm highly pessimistic on this one.
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I have the same gut feeling that I had in 2016. Someone that uncharismatic can't win a national election. Now, they might just cheat. That wouldn't surprise me.
Her problem is likability especially outside of California.
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She has to pretend to be a moderate. Will voters believe her transformation?
Most importantly will voters in Pennsylvania believe her when she says she will not ban fracking
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Do not underestimate people' stupidity. The same thing happened here: in 2019 the same party that always did the wrong thing promised to not to do it "this time" and people was so disappointed with our "Trump" (Macri) that they wanted to believe it. And that's a rock-solid psychological force at play: if there's the slightest reason for people in Pennsylvania to not to vote Trump, they will be unavoidably biased to be willing to believe Kamala, actively forcing aside rational thought. I confidently predict people will believe Kamala, not out of rationale, but because they want to do so. They desperately want it to be true. That's an immovable psychological force in a context of despair, specially in a country strongly educated in the concept of faith.
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