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552 sats \ 44 comments \ @Undisciplined 10 Sep Stacker_Sports

It was great having football back. The 49ers and Chiefs continue to dominate, the Raiders, Jets, and Donkeys continue to disappoint.

I only made two picks last week. The Raiders money line was a dud, but my parlay of the Steelers money line with the under was a big hit. Unfortunately, freebitcoin hasn't put any NFL games up, yet. Hopefully they get around to it at some point.

I really like this type of parlay. The house treats outcomes as though they're independent, but I don't think that makes sense. In the event of a Steelers' win, the under was far more likely than the over, because their offense stinks and the game was likely a defensive slog.

In line with that thinking, I made two parlays this week:

Raiders money line with the under (7:1): yes, I'm going back to the Raiders. They're probably going to lose, but if they win, it will be because of awesome defense.
Bengals money line with the over (4.5:1): Maybe Joe Burrow stinks this season, but maybe the Bengals had been looking ahead to KC. The Chiefs offense is phenomenal again, so the Bengals are only likely to win if this turns into a shootout.

Are there any odds you're excited about (doesn't have to be football)?

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325 sats \ 17 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep

I was disappointed that freebitco.in didn't have week 1 games. Hopefully at some point this season.

I am fiddling with this fan duel account I signed up for because they essentially gave me $50 for free as they had a promotion for a prop bet on Mahomes getting 1+ plus completion Thursday. Was free money unless he got hurt on the first series like Rodgers did last year. Anyways, they do these promotional parlays and profit boosts and all this crazy stuff to try to get you addicted. I am trying to extract every penny I can from those rat bastards this season by only playing their promotions, odds boosts and freebies etc. I will let you know by end of season how I am doing. Currently I have turned my $50 deposit into $135.

Whatever profit I have at the end of the season I will sweep into Bitcoin. I am going to be the Microstrategy of degen sports gambling.

1254 sats \ 7 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 10 Sep

You also inspired me to join. I deposited $30 and have won ~$500 using the $200 in bonus bets. Got lucky with some parlays on the PHI GB matchup.

This is my first experience on one of these apps so I’m still learning a lot

Edit: to clarify, I only wagered $5 of my own money to get the bonus bets, then withdrew the rest. I’ve withdrawn my original deposit and am playing with house money only now

71 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep

That's amazing!

I also withdrew my original deposit at freebitcoin and am now playing with house money. It's a nice spot to be in.

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep

Wow you won quite a bit.

40 sats \ 4 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 10 Sep

Yea I am shocked lol

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep

Apparently you are the MSTR of degen sports gambling and I am a knock off like Metaplanet. I was feeling good about my 85 dollars profit in five days and you are sitting at $470.

40 sats \ 2 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 10 Sep

Don’t worry, my hot streak won’t last, perhaps already ended. Many small wagers lost on Sunday

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 10 Sep

I am going to try to be very shrewd about what I am betting. I want to exploit as much of the free stuff, boosts etc they give me.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 10 Sep

Me too, that’s my goal. Make the most out of the opportunity with no financial cost to me. It also just makes more games more interesting, which is neat

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76 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep

I vaguely recall that freebitcoin didn't have NFL games right away last year either.

It's crazy that them and Nitro are basically the best we've got (cc: @ek).

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 10 Sep

It's too bad that other lightning project doesn't seem to be going anywhere. That looked promising. Maybe @ek should take over that project. How much do you need sir?

71 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 10 Sep

All I need is time and focus, unfortunately not buyable with sats yet 👀

87 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek 10 Sep

These NFL games you're talking about, would that basically just be "Will team X win game Y?"? So I could just create a market on delphi.market, and people can bet on yes or no with the price determined by an automated market maker? Asking, because that's what I am getting close to. I've added charts to markets recently.

87 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep

That's the place to start, but there's no limit to how many outcomes degenerates will want to wager on.

76 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 10 Sep

Fortunately LMSR scales to infinite outcomes

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 10 Sep

It amazes me to see the options on platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings. So many things to wager on.

90 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 11 Sep

I like your plan. I'm steering clear of fan duel, because I tend to get obsessive and I want to keep paying the electric bill. If you're more in control of yourself, you can do well with all of their promotions, according to a friend of mine. (Although I think he's a closet degen)

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 11 Sep

I can definitely see how easily they get people hooked they are always offering you some new promotion or some free spin to encourage you to go into the app every day.

48 sats \ 0 replies \ @HardMoney 13 Sep

In Texas you can only play daily fantasy. Sleeper app is actually one of the best for parlay betting on player stats. Between that and playing some Best ball on draft kings / drafters it’s fun to throw around $20 cuck bucks a week

92 sats \ 10 replies \ @ken 10 Sep

I'm working on a machine learning model to forecast the win probability of NFL games. These are my predictions for this week. This is totally a work in progress and should NOT be used to make bets!

Team 1	Team 1, Model Odds	Team 2	Team 2, Model Odds
Buffalo Bills	-117	Miami Dolphins	+117
Los Angeles Chargers	-257	Carolina Panthers	+257
Dallas Cowboys	-270	New Orleans Saints	+270
Detroit Lions	-300	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+300
Green Bay Packers	-113	Indianapolis Colts	+113
Cleveland Browns	-163	Jacksonville Jaguars	+163
San Francisco 49ers	-426	Minnesota Vikings	+426
Seattle Seahawks	-355	New England Patriots	+355
New York Jets	-122	Tennessee Titans	+122
Baltimore Ravens	-355	Las Vegas Raiders	+355
New York Giants	-150	Washington Commanders	+150
Los Angeles Rams	-426	Arizona Cardinals	+426
Pittsburgh Steelers	-194	Denver Broncos	+194
Cincinnati Bengals	-100	Kansas City Chiefs	+100
Houston Texans	-194	Chicago Bears	+194
Philadelphia Eagles	-233	Atlanta Falcons	+233

21 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep

Interesting. You do have a few divergences from the odds.

87 sats \ 3 replies \ @ken 10 Sep

I will mention that I'm using 2023 end-of-season statistics to generate the odds (until I have at least a few weeks of 2024 data). So if the team went through significant change, the odds could be way off.

20 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep

Are you familiar with the Elo model 538 used to use? The way they handled that is by moving each team partway back towards the mean from where they ended the previous season.

48 sats \ 1 reply \ @ken 11 Sep

Elo model

Thanks, I've never heard of this! That's an interesting approach.

30 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 11 Sep

I know they added a bunch of bells and whistles to it over the years, but I liked the simplicity of the initial model. The problem with simplicity is that it performs really poorly around major personnel changes.

21 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep

What are your inputs for the model?

51 sats \ 3 replies \ @ken 10 Sep

Most of the inputs come from Pro Football Reference. I basically use a bunch of general performance indicators (win/loss ratio, total points scored, etc) along with offensive/defensive performance data (passing, rushing, penalities, etc) and do a binary classification.

I trained the model using statistics from every game since 2004.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep

Neat. I've been wanting to do something similar to this for basketball (and eventually baseball, hockey, soccer, etc.).

Was the data fairly accessible?

I didn't get very far in looking into it, but it seemed like the gamelogs were behind a paywall.

38 sats \ 1 reply \ @ken 11 Sep

I've built a similar model for NCAA basketball, and it looks like professional basketball data is available:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/

The basic data can be scraped from the tables for free. Deeper information might be behind a paywall, but I think you could create a basic model from the data that is freely available.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 11 Sep

Thanks. I only actually need the game logs and I'll eventually want to integrate college and international into the model.

45 sats \ 12 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep

I don't know how fantasy points are scored but clearly they should be scored by PFF grades.

78 sats \ 5 replies \ @Public_N_M_E 10 Sep

🤣🤣 you might wanna work that out for week 2. I enjoyed watching the head to head between you and @Undisciplined it seemed quite back and forth for a while before UD started to pull ahead.

41 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep

It was a fun first round. I was fortunate that SF's running game was so dominant and they didn't need Purdy to pass a ton.

64 sats \ 3 replies \ @Public_N_M_E 10 Sep

Or CMC to be in it shakes fist 🤣

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep

Short week. I wouldn't be surprised if they give CMC another week off since they have a road division game in week 3. Although I am not sure you can count LA as a road game since half the stadium is 49ers fans when they play there.

40 sats \ 1 reply \ @Public_N_M_E 10 Sep

And the other half are chargers fans 😜

Yeah I can see them resting him again. Mason filled in more than adequately, I wouldn't be in any rush to bring CMC back.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep

Yeah. They are thinking long term. They don't want to lose him for a large portion of the season. We will see. I think even if he does come back he might split snaps with Mason or even some two back sets where CMC might be a decoy or get used in the pass game while Mason takes on the power running and blocking duties.

61 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Sep

Yeah, what reliable metric wouldn't have Sam Darnold over Patrick Mahomes?

It's a poor craftsman who blames his tools.

45 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 10 Sep

Darnold was pretty good this week but it is funny to see. We will see what our friend Sam can do this week when @Public_N_M_E's Vikings play a real team.

55 sats \ 2 replies \ @Public_N_M_E 10 Sep

Slinging Sammy Darnold! Let's gooooo!

He looked good, calm, poised and confident. I think he makes a really serviceable bridge QB for this year and I hope he continues to perform at a decent level and get paid somewhere.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 10 Sep

He didn't play much as a backup with the 49ers last year but he was pretty good when he did play. I think the time in SF working with Brian Griese and the 49ers system was probably good for him. Not sure he is a viable #1 QB long term but a decent fill in. Let's see what he is made of this week.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Public_N_M_E 10 Sep

Yeah I think he's benefited from the 9ers coaching staff. And I think KOC is also a really good coach who's able to scheme to his QBs strengths and being out the best in them. I think Sam will have a fine season, but I'm not convinced he's the long term solution.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @Public_N_M_E 10 Sep

Oh PFF, their grading is so... Pinch of salt comes to mind.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satoshi__Nakamoto 11 Sep

Great keep updating us