194 sats \ 5 replies \ @Arceris 7h \ on: Debt Wager: U.S. National Debt Over 40trn by Independence Day Next Year? bitcoin
Regarding the election odds, I’m a bit confused about the payout.
I dropped 5000 sats on 10/13, on the Who Wins the NY race. I recall the odds were atupid that the Democrats would win (like only 50-60%). Looking at the timestamp, I’m one of the earliest bets, so it should have been in that insane range.
But I only realized 5630 (after the vig) which seems a bit low for winning a wager in that range. Shouldn”t it have been closer to 8k or 9k? It would be helpful if the betting record recorded the implied probability of the bets.
It doesn't. The implied probability of the bet is for that moment, means nothing for later payout (as I'm starting to learn).
It's just the sum of the pots divided across winner and loser (minus fee)
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Yeah we're working on an LMSR version where you have fixed odds when you place a bet, and you'll be able to exit your position if the event outcome looks unlikely (hopefully out by EOY or early next year). We went with the parimutuel system because it was simple to develop, but it's by far not the best for incentivizing early bettors or for long-term event forecasting.
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exactly. Good to just try these things out with smaller amounts
I would have made lots more money from the Trump election bet had I known about this and wasn't concerned with the counterparty/payout problems that someone (@south_korea_ln ?) listed above
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