The Problem
I was listening to British Hodl the other day. He talked about the older, wealthier guys who need to be convinced to sell some of their real estate and stock portfolios and buy bitcoin.
It may be good advice, but it is very counterintuitive for people who have been investing for 30 or 40 years in an attempt to preserve and grow their wealth.
Nixon
After the Nixon Shock of 1972, investing part of your income was necessary to keep up with the debasement of the dollar. It was rarely articulated like this. It just became part of the culture for successful people who earned more than they needed.
Armchair Investing
Your average professional or business owner needed to learn wealth preserving techniques : Stocks, bonds, real estate. Investment gurus popped up. Diversification was preached. Rebalancing portfolios prevented any positions from getting too big.
"No one ever went broke selling a winner" was a cliche. This attitude afforded some protection, but few people got rich selling Apple, Amazon, Facebook, etc after a 20 or 30 percent gain. They would have been better off ignoring the gyrations and letting all three ride. That went against conventional wisdom, though.
Once the index funds showed up, everyone was encouraged to buy a little piece of hundreds of stocks in a basket. Great for the market, but difficult for the individual investor to grow wealth beyond the real inflation rate. John Bogle and his vanguard products were the main proponents of this method.
As an investor got older, dividend stocks and annuities were hawked as ways to ensure a retirement income.
To make things worse, the 60/40 stock bond split was pushed as a way to get the average guy to buy "risk free" US treasuries.
Turning Their World Upside Down
Now, these young kids, or not so young mavericks like Saylor or Greg Foss or Fred Kreuger come along and tell these successful, established guys to sell all their assets and buy this 15 year old magic internet money.
It might be the best investment advice they will ever get, but it will seem insane and reckless. That's probably where the FUD "it's a scam /ponzi scheme" comes from.
There needs to be a way to better educate this group. I doubt many of them will liquidate everything and let it all ride on bitcoin.
Who Cares?
I'm sure a bunch of you are thinking "who cares?" Have fun becoming poor.
We'll, first of all, that's cruel. What the hell is wrong with you people?
More selfishly for all of us, these guys are the same ones who WILL start buying a little microstrategy and Larry Fink's ETFs. Self custody will seem unsafe and reckless. These are the people for whom bitcoin will just become another asset in their portfolio. They'll allocate gradually, and listen to their advisors about the prudent percentage to own. Adoption as money? They already have their dollars, and good luck changing their mind.
I'm Pessimistic
I don't have any solutions and I'm worried that this is our future. Our hope lies in the young people, and influencers like Alex Gladstein, Joe Nakamoto, and Anita Poach. I hope we are all ready to engage this battle.