In 1997, authors of The Fourth Turning made two bold predictions:
- Around 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a crisis mood and social/political/economic trust will implode.
- Before 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history (like the American Revolution & Civil War)
Looking back now, how do you rate these predictions?
Is The Fourth Turning over? Did it even happen?
We missed you.
I recently read a news from Indian media and it suggested that America is definitely going to be bankrupt for the debt is now 200%.
KR!!! So nice to see back on SN.
Hope all is good.
I enjoyed the book and do think the generational cycles make sense but don’t consider it the great predictor many do.
Good to be back! Still working my way through the book, I'm finding it forces me to stop reading and think pretty often, so even if the predictions aren't precise, it's a thought-provoking book.
Man if Trump did not turn his head that prediction would have been spot on!👀
That's a good point, could have been some real chaos.
The fourth turning is astrology for doomers. It was supposed to have happened decades ago.
Welcome back!
Honestly, those predictions don’t seem that impressive. They’re pretty vague, so you can read into them what you want.
2005 wasn’t that long after the book and it’s not all that close to a major event, relative to the distance from 1997.
Obviously, it’s too soon to say if we’re going through a major historical moment right now. If so, the authors will deserve a lot of credit.
Thanks! Yeah that's fair, vague predictions are hard to disprove, but I'm impressed that they went as far to predict the timing of "The Fourth Turning" rather than to just say "sometime in the future".
I'm not sure they got it right, but would be cool to hear from Neil today.
I do find the Fourth Turning idea interesting and I think there's something to it.
The point with these historic cylces is that they can only be interpreted in hindsight. We have to wait and look back in another 20 years. According to the theory of the authors a Fourth Turning happens roughly every 80 years. Assuming the last one ended in 1945 or 1946, and given the accelerating pace of global developments, future historians could interpret this as a Fourth Turning I think.
Sort of. The 2008 financial crisis is definitely something that turned the world order on its head and sparked a decade of money printing while simultaneously eroding the public trust in institutions and in the expert class.
In 2024 Donald trump was re-elected in a landslide in a truly historic election, in which many called him a nazi and an insurrectionist. This could qualify as a great gate in history... or perhaps that gate is still to come...
Perhaps the 2024 election could become one of those great gates in history, guess we'll need to wait and see how drastic his changes are.
Interesting…now, I will be ruminating on this all day…
Well, the total war portion they have -- at least so far -- gotten wrong.
Welcome back! Your ~charts_and_numbers territory has been conquered! 🤠
Welcome back!
I feel that the erosion in trust has been gradual rather than drastic, as the authors seem to have predicted. Nonetheless, like some other commenters here, the ascension of Trump into presidency surfaced in my mind as a pivotal moment.
Hope everything’s going fabulous in your new job
Thanks! Yeah I agree if there have been any big changes in the last decade or so, they've mostly been gradual. I see some level of economic breakdown, and a lack of trust developing in our institutions, but overall that trend seems to be gradual, and not that severe (yet).
Social/Political/Economic trust will break down at present. But crypto prices and cryptocurrency markets Will prosper massively.
This book is looking more and more prophetic everytime I see the news. I just hope this fourth turning is not as bad as the last few. Too bloody to be welcomed.
Rooke is that you!!! Welcome back!
Thanks!
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