The Fourth Turning - 27 Years Later \ stacker news ~BooksAndArticles

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The Fourth Turning - 27 Years Later

3516 sats \ 22 comments \ @kr 28 Nov BooksAndArticles

In 1997, authors of The Fourth Turning made two bold predictions:

Around 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a crisis mood and social/political/economic trust will implode.
Before 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history (like the American Revolution & Civil War)

Looking back now, how do you rate these predictions?

Is The Fourth Turning over? Did it even happen?

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296 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 28 Nov

We missed you.

I recently read a news from Indian media and it suggested that America is definitely going to be bankrupt for the debt is now 200%.

The US debt has grown exponentially in recent decades, jumping from $5.7 trillion at the turn of the century to $23.2 trillion by 2020. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the country’s debt has surged by nearly $16 trillion, marking an unprecedented increase. Over the past 316 days alone, the debt has risen by $6.3 billion per day, or approximately Rs 5.32 billion. As a result, the average American citizen now shoulders a debt burden of about $108,000.

31 sats \ 1 reply \ @Chep 28 Nov

Man if Trump did not turn his head that prediction would have been spot on!👀

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 28 Nov freebie

That's a good point, could have been some real chaos.

43 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 28 Nov

KR!!! So nice to see back on SN.

Hope all is good.

I enjoyed the book and do think the generational cycles make sense but don’t consider it the great predictor many do.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 28 Nov freebie

Good to be back! Still working my way through the book, I'm finding it forces me to stop reading and think pretty often, so even if the predictions aren't precise, it's a thought-provoking book.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aardvark 28 Nov

The fourth turning is astrology for doomers. It was supposed to have happened decades ago.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @02a9a61fdc 28 Nov

The point with these historic cylces is that they can only be interpreted in hindsight. We have to wait and look back in another 20 years. According to the theory of the authors a Fourth Turning happens roughly every 80 years. Assuming the last one ended in 1945 or 1946, and given the accelerating pace of global developments, future historians could interpret this as a Fourth Turning I think.

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Nov

Welcome back!

Honestly, those predictions don’t seem that impressive. They’re pretty vague, so you can read into them what you want.

2005 wasn’t that long after the book and it’s not all that close to a major event, relative to the distance from 1997.

Obviously, it’s too soon to say if we’re going through a major historical moment right now. If so, the authors will deserve a lot of credit.

35 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 28 Nov freebie

Thanks! Yeah that's fair, vague predictions are hard to disprove, but I'm impressed that they went as far to predict the timing of "The Fourth Turning" rather than to just say "sometime in the future".

I'm not sure they got it right, but would be cool to hear from Neil today.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Nov

I do find the Fourth Turning idea interesting and I think there's something to it.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Roll 28 Nov

Trying to predict the future is impossible as Human being are able to flip the coin...

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @999b1368ba 28 Nov

Interesting…now, I will be ruminating on this all day…

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 28 Nov

Well, the total war portion they have -- at least so far -- gotten wrong.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 28 Nov

Welcome back! Your ~charts_and_numbers territory has been conquered! 🤠

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @cryotosensei 28 Nov

Welcome back!

I feel that the erosion in trust has been gradual rather than drastic, as the authors seem to have predicted. Nonetheless, like some other commenters here, the ascension of Trump into presidency surfaced in my mind as a pivotal moment.

Hope everything’s going fabulous in your new job

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 28 Nov freebie

Thanks! Yeah I agree if there have been any big changes in the last decade or so, they've mostly been gradual. I see some level of economic breakdown, and a lack of trust developing in our institutions, but overall that trend seems to be gradual, and not that severe (yet).

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 28 Nov

Sort of. The 2008 financial crisis is definitely something that turned the world order on its head and sparked a decade of money printing while simultaneously eroding the public trust in institutions and in the expert class.

In 2024 Donald trump was re-elected in a landslide in a truly historic election, in which many called him a nazi and an insurrectionist. This could qualify as a great gate in history... or perhaps that gate is still to come...

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 28 Nov freebie

Perhaps the 2024 election could become one of those great gates in history, guess we'll need to wait and see how drastic his changes are.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @JOSEPHBASKE 28 Nov

Social/Political/Economic trust will break down at present. But crypto prices and cryptocurrency markets Will prosper massively.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Rothbardian_fanatic 28 Nov

This book is looking more and more prophetic everytime I see the news. I just hope this fourth turning is not as bad as the last few. Too bloody to be welcomed.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB 28 Nov

Rooke is that you!!! Welcome back!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 28 Nov freebie

Thanks!