Lowest btc price in USD, 2025? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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Lowest btc price in USD, 2025?

860 sats \ 42 comments \ @elvismercury 25 Jan bitcoin

I wonder if you'd help me w/ a little experiment.

What do you think will be the lowest price of btc, in USD terms, in 2025? So far, looks like the yearly low was about $90k, on Jan 13th.

< $60k18.5%

between $60k and $70k6.2%

between $70k and $80k16.9%

between $80k and $90k18.5%

we have already seen the low ($90k)40.0%

65 votes \ poll ended

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216 sats \ 4 replies \ @dingding541 25 Jan

Based on historical cycles I can see a one off ultra low of something similar to previous lows, after the 2018 bull and 2020 bull.

But have we hit the bullseye aka top of the 2024 bull yet?

Based on 100k as the peak, a 30k low which isn't priced in but just a footnote for where the train is currently.

Let's say the 2018 bull was a 20x, the 2020 bull was 15x, if this bull is 10x from the bear, we're looking at a 160k peak, so a 50k low is my prediction.

I'm basing this on volatility petering out over halvings in a simplistic linear fashion.

Pure speculation

15 sats \ 0 replies \ @flat24 25 Jan

I agree that there is a good chance that we have not yet reached the top of this bull market. That target of 160 sounds reasonable!

15 sats \ 0 replies \ @Riberet 25 Jan

Good analysis, it might be plausible.

15 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 25 Jan

I appreciate the thoughtful analysis -- thanks for showing your thinking!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @dingding541 25 Jan

2016* apologies 😭

117 sats \ 3 replies \ @k00b 26 Jan

I recall Nic "Star" Carter saying on podcast that the best historical predictor of a bitcoin bottom is that miners have sold all their coins. He was so resolute that it's the only bitcoin price signal I've remembered hearing (I also haven't bother to look it up). Perhaps the top is when they start selling after not having done so for awhile?

I emotionally prepare myself for the exchange rate with some thought like "bitcoin's price will go down by a lot in the short term, will go up by a lot in the long term, and possibly go to zero in the very long term." It's pretty indistinguishable from the common advice of "if you hold for more than four years you can expect gains regardless of when you buy." I just more explicitly expect to lose money.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @random_ 26 Jan

bitcoin's price will go down by a lot in the short term, will go up by a lot in the long term, and possibly go to zero in the very long term.

#853859

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury OP 26 Jan

Is there a way to know, with modest reliability, about when miners sell anything? Does anyone purport to?

9 sats \ 0 replies \ @k00b 26 Jan

I think that’s what Nic’s company did before he was better known for VC/MMA/chokepoint2 - onchain and other analysis with CoinMetrics.

129 sats \ 3 replies \ @DarthCoin 25 Jan

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 26 Jan

hahaha

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @ChrisS 25 Jan

Lol, this is not a very Darth like reply on a post about price predictions but it made me laugh.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @DarthCoin 25 Jan

it's parody

108 sats \ 3 replies \ @flat24 25 Jan

I think it is still early to try to find a prediction of how far we could go back until it continues its upward path... we must wait for the market ceiling to be formed, and from then on we could try to guess what the minimum price would be that we might see in 2025.

However, to get into the game, I think that between 60 and 70 could be a very valid option.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury OP 25 Jan

Do you generally think in terms of cycles, e.g., cycle high, then some pct of that for the low?

108 sats \ 1 reply \ @flat24 25 Jan

Price is Fractal... I started studying this theory recently, a year or so ago. All of this led me to jump on the bandwagon at the break of 25k because there were signs of a reversal at that price level. And if I was right, those tests would lead me to understand that we would go to a new ATH without a doubt. I was building my Stack as much as I could this last year, looking at how everything I studied was going on the chart, guided by the monthly and weekly time frame and the theory of fractality.

A fractal is made up of three parts

1st impulse
pullback to a specific area.
2nd impulse or expansion.

Right now we are in the expansion of the last cycle, which once we find a ceiling, will become the new first impulse, to again see a setback (known as a bear market) to a specific area and reverse for the new second impulse or expansion that takes us above where this market ceiling is, that is, the next bull market.

👀 Don't trust, verify.

27 sats \ 0 replies \ @flat24 25 Jan

look at this...

150 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 25 Jan

I put very little stock in cyclical economic theories that are highly specific about timing, so I haven't looked much into what's expected from previous cycles.

If there's no major scandal, a la FTX, then I suspect we've already seen the low. Everything just looks super bullish and I think Bitcoin is an order of magnitude under valued.

In the event of a major scandal, then who knows how spooked people might get.

I probably give the least weight to the three intermediate ranges: either it crashes or it doesn't.

32 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 25 Jan

I second that.

26 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 25 Jan

I put very little stock in cyclical economic theories that are highly specific about timing, so I haven't looked much into what's expected from previous cycles.

I find the halving-based cycles interesting, but only very coarsely useful. Much more interesting is trying to understand how the macro story has changed, and what the causal implications should be, but that's not usually on offer.