I'm making this post after reading Marty Bent's article:
Marty is a smart guy who gives good advice, but I think bitcoin noobs, particularly those who don't have too much experience investing in traditional markets, might experience extreme stress and panic during a major market crash when bitcoin doesn't "go to the moon." This may cause them to sell at the exact worst time. It might be a move they regret for the rest of their lives.
Battle Scars
I'm not an expert investor by any means. I speak from experience. As a very young lawyer just starting my career I suffered through the stock market crash of 1987, which wiped out a good chunk of my piddly savings at the time. During the dot com crash, I got lucky because I had to sell most of my high flying internet stocks for a down payment on our first house before the bubble burst. By then, I was a libertarian and a gold bug. Like most people who discovered the Austrians and libertarianism, I embraced gold as a safe haven hedge. During the dot com crash I assumed gold would fly. What I didn't know was that in the middle of a panic, there are no safe havens. I also didn't know that panics can last longer than you can imagine.
We have all heard bitcoin described as the new gold. A great store of value. It's certainly true, but don't assume it will save you during a major financial upheaval. If anything, it will likely provide the buying opportunity of a lifetime, like it did in the "covid crash."
Here are some articles describing the behavior of the gold price during market crashes:
1987
Dotcom Crash
2008 Financial Crisis
Although we know bitcoin is better than gold, there are plenty of bitcoin "investors" buying microstrategy and bitcoin ETFs who see bitcoin as just another asset. What's worse, unlike gold, they still see it as a risk asset, regardless of what they say publically. During a panic, bitcoin will get flushed along with everything else, and maybe even more severely.
Then the talking heads on MSM will mock the very idea that bitcoin is a store of value. You won't be immune to that FUD.
After wondering why my beloved gold didn't rocket to the moon in 2008 and 2009, I learned the virtues of patience. I think even more patience will be required for bitcoin.
Marty's TLDR:
TLDR: Major monetary changes happen fast - don't wait to stack sats.
That's good advice. Just don't panic if bitcoin plummets when those big changes hit. At least try not to panic. Even seasoned pros panic. It won't be easy. Maybe the quote from the philosopher Mike Tyson is overused, but it applies here: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
Maybe keep some of your bitcoin hard to reach so you can't hit that sell button. Because it will be scary and shake your confidence. And, by all means, keep some powder dry to scoop up some sats during what might be the sale of a lifetime.