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Ultimately, the 75k number is a little disappointing. From what I've seen, that's less than the number of federal workers who typically leave their job in an average year. So, that program is likely a long paid vacation for people who were quitting anyway.
From what I have heard.... I have not seen or read this anywhere but it is the rumor in DC the 75k was more than they were expecting. The people that also took it were those who were out of their probationary period and those people are so so so hard to fire. Even if you completely crap the bed a lot of careers are just unfireable and they are "reassigned" to analysts and essentially just sit there and do nothing.
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It's true that they're hard to fire, but they do change jobs at a rate of somewhere between 2-6%, from what I've seen. I doubt many people took it who weren't going to leave anyway.
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When you add on the freeze and the probationary people (typically 1 to 2 years) being fired it does cause a pretty significant hit to a pipeline to backfill the positions
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Don't those people usually get replaced though?
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Yes, but there's a hiring freeze on, so they wouldn't have this time.
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I imagine some people had to have taken the deal thst wouldn't have left otherwise.... but yea, it sounds less impactful than I had imagined
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Probably some, but my guess is that it will mostly have been people who were eligible for retirement (or soon to be).
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It's only been a month, let's just hope they stay aggressive with the cuts.
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I'm sure this won't be the last attempt at dislodging bureaucrats. It was just the opening salvo.