The New Zealand parliamentary system is designed for coalition forming and not single party rule. However in the most recent 2020 election there was an unprecedented majority win from the ruling party. This, coupled with an unorganised and weak opposition, the early uncertainty around covid, and a pandering media sector meant New Zealand entered a kind of political freefall in 2020. There were no checks and balances or even any brakes. New laws were able to be easily pushed through under the guise of 'covid' during this period.

The outcome? Insane money printing upwards of $60 billion, horrendous covid restrictions and propaganda, and now rampant inflation. There has also been a chilling effect on free speech, massive division in society, and general reluctance to criticise the government.

The mainstream media bias has been a constant issue (as it has been in many countries). Given the small size of NZ and the limited number of media outlets this has been magnified to effectively create a single "public opinion" on most issues.

Though covid restrictions have been lifted, the economic effects are here to stay. The impact on families and low-income earners is huge. There has been ongoing efforts to further destabilise the economy including clamping down on farmers, disrupting energy sovereignty, etc.

I think we can all appreciate that CBDCs present a fundamental risk to human rights, democracy, and free speech.

The centralised ability for a government to specify how and when money can be used is incredibly dangerous. The Canadian Truckers having their bank accounts shut down is often given as an example of this, however even more everyday examples of this are still problematic. Smoking is bad for you? You can no longer buy cigarettes (this has already happened in NZ). Diesel fuel is bad for the environment, your card will not be able to process that transaction, sorry.

Once that power has been made available it will be very difficult to walk it back and the paradigm will already be set in stone (See GST/VAT, Passports, and taking your shoes off @ Airports).

Unfortunately, together with the influence of the media I believe it would not be difficult to convince the public of the benefits of a "NZ Digital Dollar" CBDC.

In many ways NZ is the perfect place to run this experiment. NZ has a small population, is already almost completely cashless, and there are only a small number of banks and institutions. Indeed discussions around development of a CBDC have emerged recently from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

There is currently a proposal for a National Public Transport Card (can be used on any bus or train, currently this is regionally different). I can see that as a potential way to indirectly introduce a CBDC. For example, to be able to get free public transport you must opt-in to use the public transport card, which is connected to the CBDC system.

Furthermore, with inflation impacting cost of living, the carrot of a pseudo-UBI could be brought in through this National Public Transport Card so that it can be used in supermarkets and other places to get discounted groceries, etc.

Whatever happens here, I believe that the challenge will be that people who try to push back against this will be cancelled. Just as with the covid saga where anyone who opposed lockdowns was seen as an evil anti-vaxer, anyone who opposes the rollout of the CBDC may be similarly targeted.

This has already been telegraphed in the media, with the NZ government putting out a piece on how to identify a 'terrorist', which boils down to anyone who does not agree with the government and the way they are doing things..

Seeing how fast NZ has gone off the rails since 2020 has been shocking. At this point even a change of government may do little to divert the course we are on.

One way to avoid this dystopian future I believe is if NZ is able to get through another 2 or 3 years without any major blows being struck at Bitcoin locally. Of course globally Bitcoin does not care if it is "banned" in New Zealand, but being a small country, and having seen how quickly something like the right to medical choice was able to be weaponised during the covid era here, I have no doubt that the freedom that Bitcoin offers could be similarly targeted.

However the good news is that time is on our side. Ultimately I am not sure about the government's ability to execute upon the CBDC technically and politically. They were able to rollout the Vaccine passport system in a matter of months, but the CBDC is several orders of magnitudes more complex and I think the infrastructure required is at least a few years away still.

In a world without Bitcoin they could take as long as they want, but with Bitcoin in the picture I believe we have the advantage.

If we can simply get through to 2024 and beyond with more and more "clean cut" adoption by individuals and institutions and more general acceptance I believe we will be in a strong position to challenge and present an alternative to any potential CBDC when the time comes.