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We'll want @grayruby to weigh in, but I'd say something like "The Colorado Rockies will set the MLB record for losses in a season."
We have to determine if we are going with the all time record of 134 or the modern record of 121.
Multi-market?
Which futility record will the Rockes break?
That's interesting but if they set the all time record both would need to resolve yes in that case.
They've done that kind of market before.
Yes, its technically known as Set Markets, where we can have multiple YES resolved (looks exactly like multi-markets).
Market: Which futility record will the Rockes break?
Please give me all the options.
I forgot the "set market" term. I knew it was something specific. I'm sure @grayruby can get you an interesting set of historical futility marks.
How about just straightforward
Under 122 losses
122 loses or more (modern loss record)
135 loses or more (all time loss record)
Yeah, its kinda too much to remember.
Quick refresher:
YES/NO -> Binary markets
Multi-option like Super Bowl - with single winner -> Range markets
Multi-option like What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025 - with multiple winner -> Set Markets.
Have you written much about prediction markets like this before? I'd love to read a concise, well written prediction markets by example or prediction markets by type series. I run across stuff that's either super abstract or excessively in the weeds when I think I mostly want many, varied examples that are concrete and simple (and perhaps progressively complex).
Or maybe such a resource already exists that you could recommend?
I remember thinking this Robin Hanson video was a pretty good intro, with some neat examples of different market types.
That's a nice thought, no I have not written anything much like that before and I don't think there are much resources like that out there.
I will start working on writing it. It will be a great educational resource for our users too.
Thanks for the great advice.
Pls help me frame this market.