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56 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 31 Aug 2022 \ parent \ on: Lyn Alden AMA bitcoin
I think you should focus on what you find personally interesting and rewarding and that also fits with your skillset. Like, are you a people person, a quantitative person, both?
The bitcoin ecosystem can benefit from programmers, designers, business/finance people, sales people, technicians, and all sorts of professions and skillsets.
I actually changed the painting behind me recently because I moved to a new place and it fit better somewhere else. I have two smaller paintings behind me now.
I wish there was a cool story with them but there isn't really. I just bought paintings that I felt matched the area. =/
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For the long run, yes. In the near term, it is rough because the Fed is tightening monetary policy into an economic slowdown, though.
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I think a pivot in monetary policy and easing of liquidity can allow for the next leg up.
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I think they'll stop raising rates if there are signs of severe credit market or Treasury market stress.
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The Euro Area (the subset of the EU that uses the shared currency) is being stressed pretty hard here. It's the place in the developed world that I'm most concerned about. I think one needs to have scarce assets and some degree of self-sufficiency if possible.
Public capacity took off pretty significantly in 2021. Usability improved a lot too.
I think the ongoing work for integrations, better UX, and potentially taro can all help accelerate its growth.
Potentially, sure.
It's all transparent. People might reject high taxes if they are more obvious, rather than part of taxation effectively occurring through debasement.
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Energy in aggregate will never be completely free. Nobody will spend billions of dollars for zero return on capital. Energy, if utilized correctly in the optimistic sense, will be a small part of global GDP due to its efficiency. It'll be cheap, but not free. Bitcoin has difficulty adjustments; it doesn't care how expensive or cheap energy is. If fusion becomes commonplace, then miners will be competing with each other in terms of fusion marketshare in regard to mining bitcoin.
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They don't produce enough value to maintain their lifestyles, or the lifestyles of their descendants, and thus they become net sellers, passing bitcoin back into circulation. Only someone who produces more than she or he consumes, and thus has an in come, can maintain their current bitcoin stack. Otherwise, they need to start drawing down their assets to pay expenses.
It's something to monitor, but the difference is that Ethereum is primarily meant for apps to build on top of it, while Bitcoin is primarily meant for hard money and by extension apps can build on top of it. Stablecoins on Lightning would have to reach tens of billions of dollars in value before I'd consider any concern in terms of its impact on forks. Even then I doubt it would be an issue due to bitcoin's small nodes and pleb culture. Bitcoiner's won't make any network sacrifices for stablecoins.
Payment systems in America are pretty good, so bitcoin likely needs another big bull run in price in order to catch another leg of adoption here.
I think the world will be more decentralized and/or multi-polar by the end of the decade, compared to now.
I went through a long period where I read a ton of physics books, but this one came out right after that period. I haven't had a chance to read it.
I started to skim it at one point but haven't finished it in detail. It's a credible source to look into for sure.
-Yes I think it'll take a long time. It doesn't have to take a long time (Israel's hyperinflation is an example of this), but the base case is that it does take a long time.
-The Fed can fight inflation as long as other entities buy Treasury bonds. When foreigners and domestic banks stop buying bonds, while the Treasury is trying to issue more, that's when the Fed has to step in. Otherwise, they can stand aside and watch things happen.
Over the past few years, cash and Treasuries have been devalued by inflation. I expect that to continue in the years ahead, but with volatility.
Bitcoin did very well against money supply inflation. As money supply expanded in 2020/2021, bitcoin with its fixed did very well.
In 2022, those money supply increases are really affecting prices. Price increases happen on a lag. This is despite the fact that US money supply literally hasn't grown in 2022.
Bitcoin did very well exactly when you'd expect it to: when the supply of dollars has been increasing rapidly. It did poorly when dollars stopped expanding. Year-to-date in 2022, dollar supply has been less inflationary than bitcoin. Bitcoin also had leverage in it from LUNA, 3AC, and other entities.
IMO, bitcoin will do well in dollar terms when the dollar supply starts expanding again.
I generally expect agricultural products to rise in price, albeit in a volatile way. Unlike metals and oils which take years to produce, agriculture can be fixed within a couple seasons if policymakers get serious, and thus I focus on it a bit less.
I play this trend a bit with fertilizers (NTR). I also think ADM is worth a look. I havne't analyzed RJA deeply.
I've seen his podcasts and discussions, not read his books.
My observation is that he is strong on geography (indeed a very important variable favoring the US) but is not strong on monetary realpolitik and monetary technology.
This changes over time.
When I was a kid and teenager, it was mixed martial arts. I spent 12 years doing increasingly competitive mixed martial arts, became a second-degree black belt in my particular federation of schools, and became an assistant instructor as my first job. I watch some UFC with my husband because it's the only sport I understand at a pretty deep level.
I was also into trading card games, mainly Magic the Gathering. And still am, but it comes and goes in waves.
Although I haven't played any in two years due to work overload, video games have been a lifelong hobby of mine. From Nintendo and Playstation, to Starcraft, to Overwatch, etc. I've been so busy in the past 2-3 years because the macro environment has been absolutely crazy, and diving into the bitcoin rabbit hole has been another full time job. My work has therefore also been my hobby, at least for this period of time. All in.
Watching movies or shows with my husband, and discussing/debating with him about their content and execution.
Learning in general is a hobby of mine. I went through a phase where I read every major religious text, and a phase where I went through all the major world philosophies. I like to understand how people think in terms of what their highest ideals and frameworks are, and how they differ, and what their commonalities are. Back when internet forums were more of a thing, I was an admin on a religion/philosophy forum.
-Anything that advances privacy. Lots of this on the Lightning network. Various ways to make the receiver more private, various ways to reduce what surveillance nodes can gather, and then Fedi can create some non-profit mixers in multiple jurisdictions using chaumian mint technology.
-I like what Muun is doing for wallet UX, and I like what Blockstream is doing with Greenlight, and I like what Breez is doing in general.
-Curious to see if Taro-enabled stablecoins take off as much as some of the proponents expect. I think it'll be a pretty big effect but we won't know until the code is shipped, the stablecoins are launched, and then see if adoption occurs. My default is quite bullish until proven otherwise.
Hard to pick one.
I like the original Mistborn trilogy. I also like the author's broader Cosmere work including Stormlight Archives.
I like Kingkiller Chronicles but the delay on the third book is messing that up.
I like The Lies of Locke Lamora quite a bit.
It's weird and I didn't think I would like it, but Kushiel's Dart was surprisingly good if one is not too squeamish. Honestly that might be my favorite- basically there's a kinky high-end courtesan who works with nobles and is actually a spy on them, using them for access to gather information, and she tries to protect her country from a crazy war. It's polarizing due to its graphic content.
A lot of the sci fi I've read is older stuff, like Asimov. I also like the works of Alastair Reynolds.