Lyn Alden AMA \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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102.9k sats \ 137 comments \ @lynaldencontact 29 Aug 2022 bitcoin

Hi everyone,

My name is Lyn Alden and I’m doing an AMA for the next hour.

For people that don’t follow my work, I was originally an electronics engineer by trade, moved into engineering management, and then shifted focus towards macroeconomics and investment analysis. A lot of my work focuses on what’s happening with the money system, equities, and commodities.

For the past 2.5 years I’ve been involved with bitcoin as well. Most of my work has involved analyzing the network for a mainstream audience. I’m also an independent board director for Swan Bitcoin, and an advisor to ego death capital, which is a bitcoin-only VC firm.

Happy to answer questions if anyone has any!

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365 sats \ 4 replies \ @blocktock 29 Aug 2022

Which countries do you think will be most stable & well equipped during this tumultuous period?

Bearing in mind strength of currency, resources, debts, trade deficits - are there any jurisdictions you are actively considering diversifying to (outside the U.S)? Ones where perhaps you think stagflationary trends will be felt the least?

110 sats \ 3 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I think the United States and Canada and Australia and Singapore and Norway are pretty well-positioned. I also think Japan is in less-bad shape than many people think. Basically I like for countries with decent energy/commodity exposure, or that are well-positioned in terms of trade with low levels of political polarization.

For emerging markets, Brazil and India and Mexico have a decent shot. I like the broader southeast Asian region as well- Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @south_korea_ln 5 Sep

I also think Japan is in less-bad shape than many people think.

2 years later now...

9 sats \ 1 reply \ @blocktock 29 Aug 2022

deleted by author

54 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I think Uruguay is another good one, yes.

211 sats \ 1 reply \ @ken 29 Aug 2022

Lyn Alden is on stacker.news This will surely gain some views I have one question, if you so choose: Do you think Bitcoin can survive on transaction fees alone? Or is it all a big ruse?

98 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I think it's a question of adoption.

If bitcoin stagnates and stays at its current level of users, then in 15-20 years, I would be concerned about its ability to remain censorship resistant. The cost to censor or otherwise disrupt the network would likely be quite low.

However, if bulls are right and bitcoin has 5x, 10x, 20x or more people using it in 15-20 years, then I don't see any problems with a fee-only model. There isn't enough blockspace for everyone to be on-chain, and so if the network is in demand, there will be a cost to use it.

211 sats \ 2 replies \ @davidw 29 Aug 2022

Thanks for sharing all your work & research Lyn. It’s been incredibly valuable these past few years and your paid newsletter is pure ~~gold~~ corn.

Not sure if you’ve given it much thought but curious…

What sort of world in the 2030s do you envisage will be facilitated by the Lightning network / L2s?
What will entrepreneurship look like do you think with Bitcoin?

196 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I think we have to get through 5-year periods at a time; it's always hard to look out 10 years or 15 years with technology.

In general, I think BTC/LN can bring more financial access to unbanked people, can give people more access to hard money or censorship-resistant payments, etc. I think the proliferation of bitcoin (and stablecoins for a period of time) will make it harder for some of the smallest and most poorly-run currencies to survive, because people will choose bitcoins and dollars instead. There doesn't need to be 200 currencies in the world; that's a very inefficient system that hurts people who try to save in the weakest currencies. If base layer fees get high, it can also encourage more usage of other L2s as well.

I think just like how the internet lowered the hurdle for running a small business, I think BTC/LN can also help with that. It's another piece that lowers the frictions between an entrepreneur and their potential customers.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @StanKozlovski 2 Sep 2022

Great point on LN reducing the hurdle. The website we're on is the prime example of that - facilitating value transfer between people at the speed of light(ning) without any major regulatory hurdles!

112 sats \ 2 replies \ @chris 29 Aug 2022 freebie

Hi Lyn - thanks for all you do - I'm a big fan!

My question - did you see Ross Steven (of NYDIG)'s announcement the other day, about the accelerator for Lightning called Wolf, based in Manhattan? How excited about that are you, if at all?

293 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I saw it, yes. I'm optimistic about it- lots of capital and organization can certainly help propel Lightning development.

I've met Ross a number of times and I think he is one of the most under-appreciated people in the space. He purposely keeps a low profile, but NYDIG is one of the top bitcoin-focused companies by scale. I would default towards bullishness on anything Ross does, personally.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @chris 29 Aug 2022 freebie

I just saw it said 0 Sats, sorry, I'm new to this, not being tight! :-)

211 sats \ 1 reply \ @satimoto 29 Aug 2022 freebie

Hi @lynaldencontact,

If you were stuck in an elevator with the EU Commissioner for Energy, what would be your best pitch to them that Bitcoin mining can help balance a flexible renewable power grid?

334 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Bitcoin mining is a flexible demand source that can improve the marginal economics of intermittent power supplies (eg solar, wind), or always-on power supplies (eg hydro, nuclear), and help stabilize the grid.

However, it's not a magic bullet; it's just one potential tool among many for building a good energy system. The energy problems that Europe has right now require more production.

194 sats \ 3 replies \ @fireflynine 30 Aug 2022

2 questions on the viability of bitcoin long term:

What happens when energy is effectively free with nuclear fusion?
What happens when a very small number of people effectively have all bitcoin?

98 sats \ 2 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

Energy in aggregate will never be completely free. Nobody will spend billions of dollars for zero return on capital. Energy, if utilized correctly in the optimistic sense, will be a small part of global GDP due to its efficiency. It'll be cheap, but not free. Bitcoin has difficulty adjustments; it doesn't care how expensive or cheap energy is. If fusion becomes commonplace, then miners will be competing with each other in terms of fusion marketshare in regard to mining bitcoin.
They don't produce enough value to maintain their lifestyles, or the lifestyles of their descendants, and thus they become net sellers, passing bitcoin back into circulation. Only someone who produces more than she or he consumes, and thus has an in come, can maintain their current bitcoin stack. Otherwise, they need to start drawing down their assets to pay expenses.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @fireflynine 30 Aug 2022

Thank you for the reply.

I understand that if you believe it's an impossibility for fusion power to achieve limitless energy at a cost that is essentially free, but "if" energy was magically free - would miners have a progressively diminishing incentive to operate?
If a very small number of people effectively own all the bitcoin, wouldn't derivative markets emerge where the vast majority of people would essentially own "stock" representative of bitcoin that few hold but not directly own bitcoin itself?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @StanKozlovski 2 Sep 2022

How and why would the derivative example in 2) depend on how many people own all the bitcoin?

You can have derivatives today?

BTC is self-custody friendly, so you could just own this share of BTC directly from those few hands. I don't see the need for "paper bitcoin" in this example

211 sats \ 3 replies \ @m00ninite 29 Aug 2022

Because stablecoins are so popular on ethereum, big issuers like Tether and Circle have an outsized impact on consensus. A stablecoin cannot be redeemed for fiat on both forks of a chain, so they get to decide what the “real” chain is, and the rest of the ecosystem is likely to follow.

This makes me deeply concerned about stablecoins on lightning becoming very popular and these same entities having similar control over bitcoin forks. Do you have any feelings or concerns about this attack vector?

91 sats \ 2 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

It's something to monitor, but the difference is that Ethereum is primarily meant for apps to build on top of it, while Bitcoin is primarily meant for hard money and by extension apps can build on top of it. Stablecoins on Lightning would have to reach tens of billions of dollars in value before I'd consider any concern in terms of its impact on forks. Even then I doubt it would be an issue due to bitcoin's small nodes and pleb culture. Bitcoiner's won't make any network sacrifices for stablecoins.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @StanKozlovski 2 Sep 2022

While you're right that until we're in the $Bn of value locked it isn't a concern -- it is a big stretch to believe that the pleb culture will scale if stablecoin adoption grows substantially on LN.

By definition, if we get more mainstream adoption we will get less small-node/pleb culture.

Focus on the overarching human qualities - greed and fear; This itself heavily incentivizes choosing the chain with the stablecoins.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @HumayunMhmadi 20 Nov

Thanks very very good

160 sats \ 1 reply \ @andyleroy 29 Aug 2022

What is your research and writing process like? How are you able to synthesize your research and information in new areas and overlay it with all of your other work so efficiently (while also balancing podcasts, speaking engagements, and running your business)?

342 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

-I work on multiple pieces simultaneously, and keep returning to them when I'm in the mood for that piece or if that deadline is approaching. This way, each piece I do is "in the oven" for quite a while which allows me to keep coming back to it and shaping it until it's published.

-The total balance is very hard. I've had to reduce podcast appearances and turn down a lot of speaking engagements, just to make sure I have time for my core analysis and life.

110 sats \ 2 replies \ @lv99_slacker 29 Aug 2022

Do you play any video games? If so, what are some of your all time favorites?

Are you a music fan? If so, what are some of your favorite albums/songs to come out in the last five years?

227 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I grew up on a lot of Nintendo and PlayStation games. Zelda, Starfox, Mario, Goldeneye, Final Fantasy, etc. I was frankly quite good at Super Smash Bros. The series of Super Smash Bros is my favorite overall. I then got pretty into Overwatch for a while.

I generally like hard rock and melodic metal. Metallica, Disturbed, Five Finger Death Punch, Linkin Park, Nothing More, 10 Years, Chevelle, Within Temptation. My favorite recent band is The Warning.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @lv99_slacker 29 Aug 2022

Dope. Thanks for the reply. 🤘

121 sats \ 1 reply \ @sommerfeld 29 Aug 2022 freebie

What is your process to check your biases and know if you are in an echo chamber?

What are your thoughts on the net effect of social media? Good or bad for humanity?

110 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I follow people I disagree with and make sure I can articulate their views well (a process known as "steelmanning" an argument"

I think social media is a net good but not a perfect good. Allowing people to interact more from around the world is good. It democratizes communication. However, it also detaches people from the social cues that we rely on to modulate our way of communication, which results in more aggression and impersonal behavior than would occur in person. I think it's something we need to understand and adapt more to over time, but it's inevitable either way.

110 sats \ 2 replies \ @sami 29 Aug 2022

Hey Lyn! Many macro investors have been discussing a potential food shortage and the increasing cost of commodities/food. We've also heard about the energy crisis and the impact that can have on food/agriculture.

I've been intersted in a long term investment position that is betting on increasing cost of food in the next 5 years. (MacroVoices podcast #337 was a great discussion on this investment thesis).

Would holding an agriculture index ETF ($RJA) basically accomplish this? I feel like I'm missing something. It seems too easy.

129 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

I generally expect agricultural products to rise in price, albeit in a volatile way. Unlike metals and oils which take years to produce, agriculture can be fixed within a couple seasons if policymakers get serious, and thus I focus on it a bit less.

I play this trend a bit with fertilizers (NTR). I also think ADM is worth a look. I havne't analyzed RJA deeply.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @StanKozlovski 2 Sep 2022

If you had the time to do the due diligence, would land be a good value capture for this play?

"Mortgages" for land (levered land) may be even better.

To answer myself - it might be.

Food prices going up means farmers should be in higher profit (altho fertilizer cost may be driving that) - they're able to afford more for renting your land

112 sats \ 1 reply \ @tenuous 29 Aug 2022

Hi Lyn, thanks so much for all your work.

Your diplomatic and measured communication style is so critical in not offending or excluding those on the fence about our world here.

How do we take communication and PR to the next level?

47 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I think each person has their own background and type of audience they are best at speaking too.

In general, being open and inviting and happily willing to explain how bitcoin works, and being able to politely explain why certain FUD isn't true, goes a long way.

110 sats \ 2 replies \ @alonviten 29 Aug 2022

Hi Lyn - big fan, you are a beacon of hope and chivalry with your kind respectful demeanor yet unmatched logic, reason and knowledge. Thank you.

You mention that the US has no other course of action left but to essentially have a “soft” bankruptcy by inflating away its debt. Wouldn’t it take a long time for this to happen at the current rate of inflation?

How will this be possible if the fed is fighting inflation with increasing rates?

When do you foresee this bankruptcy occurring?

56 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

-Yes I think it'll take a long time. It doesn't have to take a long time (Israel's hyperinflation is an example of this), but the base case is that it does take a long time.

-The Fed can fight inflation as long as other entities buy Treasury bonds. When foreigners and domestic banks stop buying bonds, while the Treasury is trying to issue more, that's when the Fed has to step in. Otherwise, they can stand aside and watch things happen.

Over the past few years, cash and Treasuries have been devalued by inflation. I expect that to continue in the years ahead, but with volatility.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @StanKozlovski 2 Sep 2022

The key difference here @alonviten is that they don't necessarily need high CPI inflation in order to sustain this.

Do they even need to "inflate it away", or is kicking the can enough?

If they continue monetary inflation (e.g QE) whose new supply goes into assets (asset price inflation), they can create a new endless stream of money toward treasuries. Obviously, if your stock portfolio went up 3x, you will diversify a bit more into treasuries (as well as pay extra taxes)

As you can see, it worked pretty fine from 2010-2020 - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN / https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S. Debt-to-GDP increased from 80% to 100%, but total debt increased from $11T to $23T! (100%)

112 sats \ 2 replies \ @andyleroy 29 Aug 2022

Hi Lyn, thanks for taking time for an AMA. I would love to hear about any background you are able to share about how you started your business?

What was it like in your early days of moving from aviation engineering to your investment strategy work?

How were you able to build distribution of your work as you got your investment business off the ground?

282 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Initially it was a side hustle. I had a website, did some basic search engine optimization for it, republished my content on Seeking Alpha, wrote some guest posts, etc.

Eventually I found Twitter and began using that more. I met other content creators and would get invited onto their podcasts, which helped things go kind of viral.

Only when my research business began to rival the time and income of my engineering work, did I make the full shift over. For a while I was basically working two full-time jobs.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @andyleroy 29 Aug 2022

Thanks for all of your background and insight - it's very helpful and inspirational.

111 sats \ 1 reply \ @gmd 29 Aug 2022

Favorite non-bitcoin podcasts or books?

Are you still blocked by Udi? I actually enjoy his schtick but he was acting like a huge D-bag to you on twitter.

Huge fan... Thanks for doing this!!

282 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I like various macro podcasts. Macro Voices, Market Huddle, Forward Guidance, etc.

I like books on financial history, and I also read some fantasy/sci-fi. I often mention "Lessons from History" as a recommended book- it's basically a summary of 5000 years of human history in 100 pages. The authors often analyze something from one direction, and then reverse it and look at it from the opposing view.

Udi unblocked me within the same day he blocked me. I don't know what his deal is.

110 sats \ 1 reply \ @myles_snider 29 Aug 2022

There’s a debate happening in the bitcoin community around stablecoins on Lightning, via USDT/USDC on Taro or other means.

Do you have an opinion on whether or not this is a good thing for Bitcoin?

231 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

All else being equal I think it is a good thing. Aside from bitcoin, stablecoins have been an area that I've been bullish on for a couple years.

A lot of bitcoiners in developed markets say people shouldn't be interested in stablecoins, but when you ask people in developing countries with big double-digit inflation, they are more likely to want dollar stablecoins as part of their mix. They want something that can be held for 3 months without a ton of volatility.

I think Taro, and Lightning wallets that offer both stablecoin and bitcoin functionality, would be good for the network if implemented well.

110 sats \ 1 reply \ @faithandcredit 29 Aug 2022

Do you think Bitcoin is losing its relevance in the world? It seems the massive awareness campaign in the early 2020's has kind of backfired, at least if you look at price, I mean in terms of getting attention it was a massive success, but what remains seems like a blockchain that is barely being used and many people lost alot of money so far. So what is the path forward from here you think?

232 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I think that could be the description of it each time it reaches a bubble level. That's how the 2017 peak looked too. This drawdown cleared out a lot of bad leverage.

Also, I view holding it as using it. One of the purposes of money is to be held. Non-custodial portable money is a good thing to have as a nonzero portion of someone's net worth. It represents the stored-up ability to use it later if needed or wanted.

I think Lightning is reaching critical mass over the past couple years too, and especially if combined with stablecoins (Taro), that could kick things up a notch from here. There is a demand throughout countries with high inflation for dollars (something they can hold for a few months with relative stability), and all else being equal, I think offering them Lightning wallets that have the ability to hold/send both bitcoin and stablecoins can increase adoption of bitcoin.

110 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr 29 Aug 2022

If you could only hold one asset for the next decade and it couldn’t be Bitcoin, which asset would you pick?

169 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Probably an ETF that focuses on the energy sector or value sector.

101 sats \ 1 reply \ @0324df4697 29 Aug 2022

Have you read any of Peter Zeihan’s work, such as Disunited Nations and his latest The End of the World is Just the Beginning? I find his geopolitical take on world history and the “long peace” of the post world war 2 era through US efforts make a lot of sense in a way I never understood before. I would love to hear your take on his perspective though. He is very much against Bitcoin, doesn’t seem to see any value proposition to it that would be relevant in a post global trade era. I find it difficult to square my own interest in bitcoin as sound money with Zeihan’s perspective that appears to be that politics and government power will always be greater than the potential power of bitcoin, and so the dollar/fiat will continue to rule despite everything wrong that may be said about it.

103 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

I've seen his podcasts and discussions, not read his books.

My observation is that he is strong on geography (indeed a very important variable favoring the US) but is not strong on monetary realpolitik and monetary technology.

101 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr 29 Aug 2022

What daily habit has most positively impacted your life?

171 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Daily exercise, often bike riding or something like that.

101 sats \ 1 reply \ @patternn 29 Aug 2022

taking into account the current panorama of world over-indebtedness. Do you consider that the current system is sustainable in the long term? If not, what measures do you think the different economies should take to avoid a collapse?

70 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I don't think the current system is very sustainable; I think it's getting into the later stages of its lifespan. Every 50-100 years, usually the order of the global financial system shifts around a bit. New geopolitics, new technology, ends up turning things in another direction.

Transitions don't always have to be awful, though. If countries focus on making sure they have energy and food, they can avoid the worst problems.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @fiatjaf 30 Aug 2022

In a scenario in which money-printing is impossible, Can the government create a boom-and-bust malinvestment cycle by taxing the entire economy a little more and spending the extra money in one specific industry, thus making profits higher on that industry and attracting more capital and resources to that?

89 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

Potentially, sure.

It's all transparent. People might reject high taxes if they are more obvious, rather than part of taxation effectively occurring through debasement.

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @dustwig 29 Aug 2022

There's a narrative that BTC is a hedge against inflation, it's seems true but really depends on when you bought it. If you compare BTC against the US inflation rate YOY (57.41%), BTC is the clear loser (-43.83%) as of today Aug 29, 2022, in fact if you bought anytime after June 2019 you would've lost to inflation.

We're in an overtly inflationary environment, BTC's moment to shine as a hedge against inflation has been now and it hasn't been a good hedge, it's been the opposite. It hasn’t proved itself a good store of value beyond June 2019 compared to the dollar and it’s not a good medium for exchange which begs the question, what is the near term and long term use case for Bitcoin?

Factoring in the recent fed comments, the rising dollar, and it pretty much a done deal as far as rising interest rates until inflation hits the fed target, why would anyone convert USD to BTC before the fed is done hiking rates?

96 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

Bitcoin did very well against money supply inflation. As money supply expanded in 2020/2021, bitcoin with its fixed did very well.

In 2022, those money supply increases are really affecting prices. Price increases happen on a lag. This is despite the fact that US money supply literally hasn't grown in 2022.

Bitcoin did very well exactly when you'd expect it to: when the supply of dollars has been increasing rapidly. It did poorly when dollars stopped expanding. Year-to-date in 2022, dollar supply has been less inflationary than bitcoin. Bitcoin also had leverage in it from LUNA, 3AC, and other entities.

IMO, bitcoin will do well in dollar terms when the dollar supply starts expanding again.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @StanKozlovski 2 Sep 2022

Where is this 57.41% number coming from?

Over-levered and overcrowded inflation hedges do not guarantee short-term hedging against inflation.

See Japan's real estate sector. Everybody agrees that real estate is a hedge against inflation -- nobody ever puts that into question somehow.

But if you had bought Japanese real estate anywhere from 1987-2003 (16 years!) you would NOT be up today. This means that in the worst case (1987 buy), you would have underperformed inflation for 35 years.

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @bitcoingraffiti 29 Aug 2022

Hi Lyn, What's your favorite SciFi/Fantasy novel?

125 sats \ 2 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Hard to pick one.

I like the original Mistborn trilogy. I also like the author's broader Cosmere work including Stormlight Archives.

I like Kingkiller Chronicles but the delay on the third book is messing that up.

I like The Lies of Locke Lamora quite a bit.

It's weird and I didn't think I would like it, but Kushiel's Dart was surprisingly good if one is not too squeamish. Honestly that might be my favorite- basically there's a kinky high-end courtesan who works with nobles and is actually a spy on them, using them for access to gather information, and she tries to protect her country from a crazy war. It's polarizing due to its graphic content.

A lot of the sci fi I've read is older stuff, like Asimov. I also like the works of Alastair Reynolds.

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @Risky 30 Aug 2022

So glad to see another Sanderson fan. Mistborn and the the Stormlight Archives are incredible works!! I Just finished The Wise Man's Fear for the first time and feel fortunate I haven't had to wait a decade for the next book. Rumors are around that book 3 will be released this year!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitcoingraffiti 30 Aug 2022

The Hugo winners are great. I read Foundation two weeks ago and now Dune. It's still brilliant after so many decades.

My favourite show is still Babylon5, which to me is still the master piece that encapsulates most of the material I read.

Thank you for the fantasy recommendations. I all don't know them. Will move more into the genre after I'm through my scifi list.

100 sats \ 4 replies \ @SimpleStacker 29 Aug 2022

Hi Lyn, thanks for this AMA. I have been a fan ever since I read your piece on the history of the petrodollar.

What's your view of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin? They have two very different use cases, with Bitcoin being decentralized hard money and Ethereum trying to be a decentralized cloud computer. But there's a lot of debate over the degree to which Ethereum can truly be decentralized, and the degree to which Ethereum's drivers are interested in number-go-up versus real decentralization. What are your thoughts?

69 sats \ 3 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Well with the difficulty bomb, Ethereum has never been decentralized. That bomb prevents nodes from being in control. And if nodes are hard to run, and with proof of stake, even without the difficulty bomb I don't think it will be very decentralized. The MEV issue also opens it up to centralization because only a handful of sophisticated entities will be the best at ordering blocks.

I mainly classify smart contract ecosystems as equities. They're pretty centralized and they live or die by how much they can get users to use their network rather than competitors. I think stablecoins have a use-case, and I think DeFi, NFTs, and crypto games will probably be around for a while in some form.

I think it's unwise for smart contract platforms to advertise themselves as ultra sound money and try to compete with bitcoin for that particular use case.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @bryanlinton2 29 Aug 2022

Can you elaborate on why you think it’s unwise for a smart contract platform to advertise themselves as ultra sound money?

330 sats \ 1 reply \ @m00ninite 29 Aug 2022

Let’s set aside the fact that “ultra sound money” is a ridiculous term.

Sound money doesn’t keep adjusting its issuance/burn rate based on whatever they feel like in that moment. Its consensus is also not centralized like ETH is.

Bitcoin is sound money because no entity controls it, and its monetary policy cannot ever change.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @StanKozlovski 2 Sep 2022

EXACTLY.

I have been pounding the table on this forever with all the hype-crazed .eth maxis.

It literally doesn't matter what Ethereum does, it can literally never be a better sound/hard money than Bitcoin. It's impossible, because it's core focus and core competency is elsewhere.

One sentence rebuttal that lasts forever: If Ethereum needs to add 10% inflation in order to outcompete Solana, it will always choose to do so.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @JakobAbf 29 Aug 2022

Hi Lyn, I am a big fan of your work. My question is the following: If a nation would adopt Bitcoin or a Bitcoin-backed currency as its prime money, how would the price formation of goods and services work? In my mind it would mostly depend on how much Bitcoin or currency is circulating inside that economy, Bitcoins foreign exchange rate would only matter secondarily. What's your view?

46 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I think that while it is small like it is now, it will be a secondary currency in those types of countries. People will still price things in dollars or other fiat, since those are the bigger network effects currently, that is what people earn in, that is what peoples' liabilities are denominated in, etc.

If bitcoin grows large enough and becomes far more widely held, then its volatility can decrease, and then price formation starts to look similar to how it did on a gold/silver standard. Some prices are pretty global, while other prices are pretty local. Natural gas right now in this specific city, can be priced very differently than natural gas right now in another specific city, for example. A Big Mac in one city can cost very different amounts than a Big Mac in another city, due to differences in labor rates, material costs, real estate costs, etc.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @notgeld 29 Aug 2022

Do you think synthetic assets on Lightning have any future? Do you think handling some way Bitcoin volatility is important for short term adoption?

46 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

We'll see what happens. I think stablecoins on Lightning potentially have a pretty big market opportunity.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @jp 29 Aug 2022

Lyn, By far you are my favorite person to follow. What are some other economists that you personally enjoy following?

Also, what is one of your favorite books?

Thanks again and keep up the great work.

117 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

I like analysts such as Luke Gromen, Russel Napier, Vincent Deluard, and many others.

For books, I often recommend Lessons of History. My guilty pleasure books are fantasy and sci fi novels, like Brian Sanderson books.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @kendallweihe 29 Aug 2022

What long term role do you think Bitcoin could play in the global credit markets? Not merely as a hedge against the existing fiat credit markets, but the network technology and its ability to settle value.

46 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

That still remains to be seen, but the bigger it gets, the more it could be use as a global settlement network. Strike and Bottlepay are using it for that purpose. Taro could improve it for that purpose.

Bitcoin's base layer can process about as many annual settlements as Fedwire, and can do so in a decentralized way that anyone can connect to rather than being a closed sysetm. I think that's a pretty big deal.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @lawndough 29 Aug 2022 freebie

Hi Lyn, thanks for doing this AMA! What Lightning Projects are you most excited about?

57 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Lots of lightning projects interest me.

-Any development that could improve privacy.

-New apps to improve the user experience for non-custodial users.

-Things like Greenlight that improve the options people have when figuring out how custodial they want to be. There's quite a big spectrum on Lightning for how hands-on or hands-off someone wants to be, and I think the more options, the better.

-Lightning infrastructure- all sorts of liquidity providers and so forth.

-I like Fedi; I think it could help improve privacy for the network and give a more private way to incorporate custody as well.

-Taro to bring stablecoins to Lightning seems like a good fit to me.

76 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 29 Aug 2022

If you could magically add something to bitcoin what would it be?

514 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Better privacy/fungibility.

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @davidw 29 Aug 2022

Can we help hook you up to accept Bitcoin on your website, for your premium newsletter?

88 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

Right now there's small demand for it and I'd need to update the backend. Next time I do a backend update, I want to incorporate bitcoin.

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @davidw 29 Aug 2022

Ok awesome. Figured someone reading this would be willing and able to lend a hand if needed

31 sats \ 3 replies \ @super_testnet 29 Aug 2022

I can't tell if you are a boy or a girl. Will you elaborate?

627 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

Neither a "boy" or a "girl", I'm a woman in her thirties, happily married to her husband.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @shyfire 31 Aug 2022

deleted by author

458 sats \ 0 replies \ @bitcoingraffiti 29 Aug 2022

I can elaborate you're a 100% dickhead!

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @BTCLNAT 29 Aug

Dear Lyn Alden. First of all, I would like to congratulate you on the work you do in promoting education and future adoption of Bitcoin. You have mentioned the possibility that Bitcoin Lightning offers to unbanked people, but in the trilemma of the crypto world, security in this layer is the weakness.

I ask you, is there a possibility that this weakness can be strengthened?

The question is why many of those who today use this layer that allows speed, low fees and ease of use, probably cannot use the main Bitcoin network due to certain conditions, especially due to the quantities.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @BTCLNAT 29 Aug

I was asking about how to improve security on the Lightning network and it is clear that the answer is to have your own node, which involves having hardware for that purpose. Now a solution emerges with GetAlby Hub. It has a free and a paid solution. It would be an option to explore. Let's hope it is really useful.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @fgiveme 30 Aug 2022

What do you think of synthetic USD (issued by exchanges)?

https://stablesats.com

13 sats \ 1 reply \ @RussSamuels 29 Aug 2022 freebie

Have you read the book "The Prize" by Daniel Yergin on the history of the oil industry? If so, is the book considered broadly accurate?

46 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

I started to skim it at one point but haven't finished it in detail. It's a credible source to look into for sure.

10 sats \ 4 replies \ @jimmysong 29 Aug 2022

What's your favorite hobby?

1199 sats \ 3 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

This changes over time.

When I was a kid and teenager, it was mixed martial arts. I spent 12 years doing increasingly competitive mixed martial arts, became a second-degree black belt in my particular federation of schools, and became an assistant instructor as my first job. I watch some UFC with my husband because it's the only sport I understand at a pretty deep level.

I was also into trading card games, mainly Magic the Gathering. And still am, but it comes and goes in waves.

Although I haven't played any in two years due to work overload, video games have been a lifelong hobby of mine. From Nintendo and Playstation, to Starcraft, to Overwatch, etc. I've been so busy in the past 2-3 years because the macro environment has been absolutely crazy, and diving into the bitcoin rabbit hole has been another full time job. My work has therefore also been my hobby, at least for this period of time. All in.

Watching movies or shows with my husband, and discussing/debating with him about their content and execution.

Learning in general is a hobby of mine. I went through a phase where I read every major religious text, and a phase where I went through all the major world philosophies. I like to understand how people think in terms of what their highest ideals and frameworks are, and how they differ, and what their commonalities are. Back when internet forums were more of a thing, I was an admin on a religion/philosophy forum.

13 sats \ 2 replies \ @jimmysong 30 Aug 2022

That's some serious geek cred!

Your thoughts on whether Tony Ferguson is done?

46 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 31 Aug 2022

No strong opinion but it doesn't look positive.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @jp 2 Sep 2022

Jumping on this question thread:

IIRC you practice BJJ? If so what's your favorite submission and do you prefer Gi or Nogi?

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Dez 29 Aug 2022

Thank you for your tireless work that you put in! The valuable information you provide is amazing. It really is appreciated!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Brunswick 3 Sep 2022

Hi Lyn, you are an asset to the community. Thank you for all you do!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @jack 1 Sep 2022

I might be late to the party -- but I've always enjoyed getting your newsletters in my inbox. You're a rational and systemic writer with a direct voice, and I take inspiration from your writing style and methods as I start my career.

I have a few questions if you see them and have time to answer:

When you talk about being bullish on lightning growth in developing markets based on local volatility, what sources or specific cases are you seeing that leads you to make that claim?
Can you imagine realistic situations where investing long in total-market US and global index funds (ala bogleheads) not yield regular long-term (8-20y) returns or be more risky than smaller indexes like the S&P 500 or Russel 3000?
What newsletters or periodic writers do you enjoy outside of investing/finance?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @lukeonchain 31 Aug 2022

Given the macro and the geopolitical situation, what's your guess for the next BTC all time high? Is it 2024? 😁

P.S Appreciate all your hard work ✊

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 31 Aug 2022

What’s the story of the painting behind you in all your podcasts?

146 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 31 Aug 2022

I actually changed the painting behind me recently because I moved to a new place and it fit better somewhere else. I have two smaller paintings behind me now.

I wish there was a cool story with them but there isn't really. I just bought paintings that I felt matched the area. =/

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @andre 30 Aug 2022

Lyn Alden🥳What skills and jobs would you recommend to someone who's young and interested in bitcoin

56 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 31 Aug 2022

I think you should focus on what you find personally interesting and rewarding and that also fits with your skillset. Like, are you a people person, a quantitative person, both?

The bitcoin ecosystem can benefit from programmers, designers, business/finance people, sales people, technicians, and all sorts of professions and skillsets.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @andre 1 Sep 2022

Thank you Lyn🙏🏾

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @moneroshill 30 Aug 2022

What do you think about monero-chan and why do you think monero is a superior cryptocurrency to bitcoin?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @alvaraaltopelti 30 Aug 2022

What’s your opinion on the whole woke cancel culture thing?

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @theswissroadtocrypto 30 Aug 2022

China's gdp and china's debt has risen tremendously over the last 30 years. do you think that would have been possible with out fractional reserve banking?

56 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 31 Aug 2022

Well, it's basically impossible to reach debt levels this high with full reserve banking.

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @21bitcoinApp 30 Aug 2022

Huge fan of your work, Lyn!! @lynaldencontact.

Are you still bullish on #Bitcoin. If yes, why? If not, why not?
What could be the next catalyst for #Bitcoin adoption?
How high do you think interest rates will rise in the U.S. and Europe before our debt system collapses?
Is the Europe Union at the end? How should one provide for the future?

56 sats \ 3 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 31 Aug 2022

For the long run, yes. In the near term, it is rough because the Fed is tightening monetary policy into an economic slowdown, though.
I think a pivot in monetary policy and easing of liquidity can allow for the next leg up.
I think they'll stop raising rates if there are signs of severe credit market or Treasury market stress.
The Euro Area (the subset of the EU that uses the shared currency) is being stressed pretty hard here. It's the place in the developed world that I'm most concerned about. I think one needs to have scarce assets and some degree of self-sufficiency if possible.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @21bitcoinApp 31 Aug 2022

Thanks a lot for your response, Lyn! Could you elaborate on point 4. a bit? What kind of assets you have in mind? And what specifically you mean with self-sufficiency?

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @StanKozlovski 2 Sep 2022

Any kind of scarce assets really -- just not currency afaict.

re: self-sufficiency, you want to hedge against all manners of problems that can break out when a developed country goes through a hard period.

non-dependence on civil unrest second order effects like worker strikes (e.g truckers, etc), not being in a huge city where crime can really go up
possibly remote job to allow for relocation if shit hits the fan
electricity backup in case of high prices / grid downtime / blackouts.

etc

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @21bitcoinApp 2 Sep 2022

Indeed. Thanks for your reply. Really strange times we are living in. Glad we have #Bitcoin, it gives us at least a little bit of hope.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @faithandcredit 30 Aug 2022

Whats it like joining a decentralized movement and in a few years become one of the most influential people.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @NordlysLN 30 Aug 2022

The Lightning Network hasn't really seen a hockey stick like adoption from what I can tell. What do you think is holding Lightning network adoption back? Do you think the PoS integration Strike is launching could be a catalyst in this regard?

46 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 31 Aug 2022

Public capacity took off pretty significantly in 2021. Usability improved a lot too.

I think the ongoing work for integrations, better UX, and potentially taro can all help accelerate its growth.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @BeardedSaintRef 29 Aug 2022

How do you see Bitcoin becoming more adopted in America?

46 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

Payment systems in America are pretty good, so bitcoin likely needs another big bull run in price in order to catch another leg of adoption here.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @0391398253 29 Aug 2022

Do you foresee changes in the world order by the end of the decade?, Or the current status quo will remain?

56 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

I think the world will be more decentralized and/or multi-polar by the end of the decade, compared to now.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0391398253 30 Aug 2022

Thanks for your time!! BTW great fan of you!.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @cozy 29 Aug 2022

Have you ever read The Beginning of Infinity (or The Fabric of Reality)? What do you think of Deutsch's knowledge based definition of wealth? ("[non-parochially] as the repertoire of physical transformations that [people] would be capable of causing.")

46 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 30 Aug 2022

I went through a long period where I read a ton of physics books, but this one came out right after that period. I haven't had a chance to read it.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0391398253 30 Aug 2022

Not here.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @nout 29 Aug 2022

What technical Bitcoin/Lightning developments are you the most excited about?

148 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

-Anything that advances privacy. Lots of this on the Lightning network. Various ways to make the receiver more private, various ways to reduce what surveillance nodes can gather, and then Fedi can create some non-profit mixers in multiple jurisdictions using chaumian mint technology.

-I like what Muun is doing for wallet UX, and I like what Blockstream is doing with Greenlight, and I like what Breez is doing in general.

-Curious to see if Taro-enabled stablecoins take off as much as some of the proponents expect. I think it'll be a pretty big effect but we won't know until the code is shipped, the stablecoins are launched, and then see if adoption occurs. My default is quite bullish until proven otherwise.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @ashdraked 29 Aug 2022

If you saw nassim taleb in person would you punch him in the face?

46 sats \ 1 reply \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

No.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinosphere 29 Aug 2022

How about metaphorically, perhaps through debate? ;)

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 29 Aug 2022

As an advisor to Ego Death, which product or service categories do you find the most promising?

56 sats \ 0 replies \ @lynaldencontact OP 29 Aug 2022

We're quite interested in the Lightning network. All sorts of seed-stage companies. But happy to go to other parts of the bitcoin ecosystem as well.

I can't disclose too much but for example it is public record that ego death was a co-lead investor for Fedi.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @ltZ_key 29 Aug 2022 freebie

Lyn- Have you read the "Thoughts of Another" on the USAGold site? It's been an enjoyable read for me recently, and has further opened my eyes as a btc-er of the importance / role of gold in the years to come.

https://www.usagold.com/goldtrail/archives/another1.html

cheers..