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@optimism
stacking since: #879734longest cowboy streak: 31
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 10 Mar \ parent \ on: Market Prices Are Truth: What is BTC/USD Telling Us? bitcoin
I personally don't see NgU as a first principle. Its a potential (and likely, and thus far proven-ish) effect of programmatically sidelining the peeps at the monetary controls with a consensus enforced fixed supply.
Because its consensus enforced it only works if Bitcoiners are willing to defend it (the supply limit). This answers your question:
Bitcoiners.
This is not a battle of exchange rate, its a battle of merit to having something the Fed doesn't control. They definitely control the exchange rate with the dollar tho, because that's half of the trade pair. So NgU vs the dollar will have to be in the face of adversity. After all they can shred and they can print. Manipulate both ways
The ultimate question is: what appeal does the orange pill have? And perhaps that answer is sovereignty more than NgU at this moment. At least that's what I personally pitch: freedom.
Everybody know of bitcoin (it's hard not too), nobody just have a clue what it is and don't really care?
I subscribe to this. The "what it is" part is obscured by: Exchange narratives, "crypto" narratives, Greenpeace narratives, ETF narratives, Sen. Warren narratives and now SBR narrative.
The number one thing I deal with in talking about Bitcoin with people is that the raison d'être isn't even known. In the normie mindset I mostly encounter is that its a speculative virtual casino thing. I can't remember a single normie ever telling me that Bitcoin fixes something.
It's literally something many companies do that ships physical products (especially electronics) and you're often forced to by your supply chain. Real life example:
I was consulting a company that designed and manufactured parking meters and those were powered by a little board running Windows CE 5. Unfortunately this board could not run Windows CE 6 (which did not exist at the time the product was designed) and at some point MS stopped supporting CE 5 so there were no more updates. This was pretty bad because (a) vulnerabilities weren't fixed anymore and (b) when the US changed the DST rules in 2007, all these things were tracking the wrong internal time for a couple of weeks per year.
So learning from that, the product manager decided that the lifecycle of a parking meter would now be limited by the rated OS of the main board's support cycle and 2 years before the end of a cycle a new model had to be ready for production. Most often "upgrade solutions" included upgrade kits where the customer would basically buy new guts for the device, but in the end, yes, this is planned obsolescence and it is standard practice.
Yes there is. Do not buy crap quality products and focus on tools, not stuff. MAINTAIN YOUR TOOLS.
And ffs stop being a dumbass consumer drone. Just get married and have your wife be a consumer in terms of shoes and dresses and vicariously enjoy the consumerism through her if you have to.
Assuming they aren't lying, you'll either want:
- a near-future version of this text to reflect these promised savings, or
- USD inflation to match the promised savings (as the budget and the savings are both expressed in that)
- The whole of the savings to be returned to the taxpayer (like a dividend) which will likely cause option 2 or worse.
So if Elon claims that $2tn was saved and yet $7tn was still spent, then inflation (including wages) shall rise to ~40%.
(edit: took the wrong baseline number)
I feel like you're neatly making all the counterarguments yourself there.
There's an intra-generational divide, too, that many people have missed: generations aren't singular units with combined agency and experience. They contain individuals that have a variety of life outcomes
I think this is important, so I'll admit on reflection: respect is earned, including respect for your elders. They had more time to earn the respect, so it's already biased towards them anyway. I guess we can just measure everyone against whatever values we deem important and save ourselves the prejudice.
on and on the endless circle of resent and inequity goes.
I look at it like this: if there are no problems to solve, people get complacent, so it's good to have some inequity between people that already had the chance over time versus those that haven't even had the opportunities to engage with yet. It's also better to not be complacent when you're young, because you'll get these opportunities in a time where it's relatively inexpensive to make mistakes. As you grow older, mistakes become more expensive: you'll have less time to recover.
Bottom line some people will solve the problems thrown at them, others will not. Some will even do it without scamming everyone else and I think that's what ultimately makes the difference to me: the
how is important and the how much is really irrelevant: You have gazillions? Good for you. Now pretty please fuck off to your island and get out of the way.Places that don't do daylight saving like AZ and much of the Caribbean / Central America are awesome, but only as long as you're not dealing with colleagues/customers on the US coasts. They'll just screw up your schedule even when your time didn't change.
Budget neutral means that you just don't spend the money you had congress authorize for printing 2 weeks ago on the CFPB because Mr. Musk just fired these guys but instead you buy some sats. You do this right after both Mr. Sachs has instructed his nephew and your son has opened his liberty llc wallet to do 50x leveraged longs and you simply empty the entire orderbook's sell side of whatever CEX Mr. Sun told you to use.
he clearly didn't learn what bitcoin is, or what it's about before he was sucked in
Yes. In this case it was a clear information failure and ultimately I wonder: can we pre-empt the scammers? How do we get high quality information to every anon on the planet that is just running their local business, is not on SN, or X, probably not FB either?
Can we get a reasonable coverage? What's the message? And how do we not make it a religion because that will just put people off?
Which is an inconceivable screwup if true.
A decade ago I've replaced tx processing systems 2 orders of magnitude smaller than this in terms of money flowing through them that were 20 years old (i.e. older than the ECB was at that time), most often clustered across many servers, everything triple redundant per site and have at least a fully sync'd hot site for fallback in case an entire datacenter gets EMP'd.
So "hardware failure" is either a lie (most likely), or the competence is nowhere to be found (still kinda likely.)
Here's the good news:
This is where decentralization truly shines. Even with current pool centralization concerns.
Scenario: Foundry (the currently biggest pool at ~ 32%) goes down for a day across the board. (This fwiw would be about 100x as incompetent as the ECB as there's Foundry's money and reputation at stake, the ECB is a monopoly.)
The block time will expand with a few minutes and the backlog may grow.
However, most mining operations also don't like losing revenue, so assuming that Foundry would immediately shut down their stratum servers upon not being able to actually produce blocks, miners will switch to another pool either instantly (configured fallback pool) or within the hour (manually) and block spacing will no longer be affected.
In any case, the deviation will be short lived and totally within normal block spacing distribution: no transactor will likely even notice, except when looking at pool stats because a discrepancy would show: "Foundry did not produce any blocks that day, wth?" and of course the endless FUD on the bird app / half of IBIT being sold because the Investoors Sans Technology shall shit their pants.