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17 sats \ 1 reply \ @standardcrypto 7h \ parent \ on: Waiting Jack Dorsey answer with calm and patience bitcoin
Before we start fighting, let me de escalate by trying to be more precise.
None of the economically important parts of bitcoin -- economically important enough to control development -- needs lightning.
I need lightning, for dicking around on stacker news. As an investor, long term I need lightning for bitcoin to succeed. But short term, it's ok for lightning to be a bit drifted and vulnerable to corporate capture.
Nobody with real skin in the game really feels the pain from corporate capture, or potential corporate capture, of lightning. That's my point.
reportedly trump is looking into this strategy to mitigate the budget crisis. Unfortunately it was determined that even if all registered democrat federal workers got their pensions revoked, this would barely make a dent in the total outflow.
Total global debt is (lmmv) around $100 trillion, I went a bit further down this rabithole.
The LMMV is "this is from an LLM so YMMV.
FWIW I regenerated the response several times and each time the numbers shuffled around a bit, while the overall pattern was somewhat stable.
So fuck knows how accurate this is, but I'd say at least the question is posed properly and there is some hope that we are in the right ballpark.
LLMRESPONSE
Global Debt Breakdown (LMMV, GROK)
| Category | Amount (trillion USD) |
|---|---|
| Medium term, high quality | 25.5 |
| Medium term, medium quality | 20.6 |
| Long term, high quality | 20.4 |
| Long term, medium quality | 12.4 |
| Short term, medium quality | 8.2 |
| Short term, high quality | 5.1 |
| Short term, low quality | 3.1 |
| Medium term, low quality | 3.1 |
| Long term, low quality | 1.6 |
| Total | 100 |
Definitions:
- Short term: under 1 year
- Medium term: 1 to 10 years
- Long term: over 10 years
- Low quality: countries with credit ratings BB+ and below (e.g., Venezuela, Argentina)
- Medium quality: countries with credit ratings A+ to BBB- (e.g., Greece, Italy)
- High quality: countries with credit ratings AAA to AA- (e.g., US, Switzerland)
LLMQUERY
Please help me produce a table.
title is "Global Debt Breakdown (LMMV, GROK)"
format is markdown, suitable for pasting into an internet forum.
(Note to self, plan is to paste to
https://stacker.news/items/1196045
"To What Extent Is Bitcoin Responsible for Spiking Bond Yields?)
3 Columns: Term, Quality, MarketCap (USD Trilion)
There should be nine rows. This is a combination of tuples:
(short term, medium term, long term)
(low quality, medium quality, high quality)
eg
short term is under a year, medium term is 1 to 10 years, long term is over 10 years.
low quality is shitty countries like venezuela that no one trusts, medium term is countries like greece that are like bad but maybe they will pay, high quality is countries like the US and switzerland, where it's like, yeah if it's not the zombie apocalypse they will pay.
both segmentations should add up to 100%.
ie, low + medium + long term should add up to all the debt, and low + medium + high quality should also add up to all the debt. so with the segmentation, the 9 rows should add up to all the debt.
You can define the terms differently if that makes this task easier, but give the definition below the table so it's clear (either way -- ie, even if you don't define it differently, give it under the chart.)
It should be reverse sorted by amount. (so highest amount at the top)
And there should be a total at the bottom.
Bonus Rabbithole...
LLM QUERY
It's kind of a weird coincidence that the total is exactly $100 trillion.
Does this make you doubt the result in any way?
Can you think of anything to sanity check the analysis so far?
Don't actually do the sanity check, just brainstorm things you could potentially sanity check.
response omitted.
lmmv:
Q "what is total marketcap of long bonds (over 10 years) of g20 countries, in dollars?Just a quick ballpark answer, no analysis."
A "$ 20 trillion"
bitcoin marketcap is $ 2 trillion, give or take, so 10%.
So if investors are selling well rated "high quality" long bonds for bitcoin, sure there could certainly be some impact. And I do in fact believe this is happening. The degree to which it is happening is debatable. But, the bigger bitcoin gets, the more it is happening -- that seems like a safe bet. Because just numerically, the bigger bitcoin is the more selling and switchover it can absorb.
It's further complicated by the unfortunate reality that we are in a "stealth capital controls" world, ie there are many holders of these "high quality" bonds that are trapped, they are legally required to hold them and can't sell for various reasons. Insurance companies, banks. Basel 2 and 3 "high quality liquid assets" for more on this.
But whatever, a trapped rat will chew off its leg to escape if it is desperate enough. So we'll see.
future headline: "Supermax (local grocery chain) trusted their AI, now there is no more refrigerated meat in San Juan PR."
The solution is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capability-based_security
We'll get there eventually but a lot of people could die along the way.
the pussification of Bitcoin continues
next you will have to die your hair blue for BOLTs GitHub access.
🏳️🌈 🫏
luckily nobody actually needs lightning (yet). Low, low, lowwww sat/vbyte tx fees.
when (not if) this changes, this tempest in a teapot my dong is longer than your schlong virtue signaling bullshit will end right quick, bet on that.
Bitcoin isn't a panacea.
It's just the least bad, least unfair form of money.
Most rich families blow it all within a few generations.
They are replaced by hard working aspirants from below, whose descendents in turn will grow grow lazy and weak from privilege. Circle of life.
Essay raises valid concerns but is also a bit of a concern troll.
tldr
big companies will sell products and services for Bitcoin, when the Bitcoin they project they will need is not available on exchanges in the amount they want at the price they are willing to pay.
ie: you want to run your air conditioner more hours next month? fiat not accepted above x hours, find some Bitcoin or use the fan.
Yeah people aren't going to like this, but I think maybe that's how it could go.
relax yo!
when the ETFs and Coinbase are hacked or seized by the desperate government, more people will self custody and blocks will fill up again.
yes, let the free market find the price. it will anyway so why fight it like a retard communist central planner.
this is crypto.
this is stablecoins.
this is the real story here.
Jerome Powell / Scott bessent are basically in the same position as Michael carturan.
same problem / same psychology
similar ending.
(note that carturan is the kidnapee here / victim)
"Carturan described his expertise operating anonymous online trollbots and “running psyops” — in other words, using social-media bots to hype meme-coin projects, making them appear more popular than they actually were"
crypto karma.
#1063241
Natural Metals and Altmetals
how much monthly aws credits would it take to make it 51%?
that's about 10k double elcheapo ec2 instances running pruned from my 2 minute napkin math.
how do we know you don't have 1000 user names and post "bounties" all over the internet like this?
not a personal attack. actually posing the question.
imho there is no really good answers but the best answers start with web of trust (breadcrumb: wikipedia).
watch the movie dirty coin (Alana mediaville, I think it'S on amazon, anyway not hard to find)
fwiw this argument is winnable but it takes effort and preparation and if you are the odd guy in a crowd of people who dislike you for tribal reasons, it might be better to be be a wallflower and just listen and resist the urge to engage.
if you don't feel ready to debate the Bitcoin is bad crowd, you can just politely say "I don't think Bitcoin is climate negative or anyway uniquely climate negative any more than say washing machines or any other tech, but I'm not ready to defend that position with facts and arguments at the present time. I am still learning about it."
if you must argue, when you get "as much electricity as Argentina" try "how much is that in percent of that total?" (fwiw it's like 0.2% but the really point is neither you nor the other person probably actually knows)