I stood in the same spot as you, 8 months ago, cool how much the seasons change the vibe.

Nikko was probably my favorite part of Japan

A little part of me deep down hopes they keep ruining it, to force me to stop waisting my time in that hell hole.
Sucks for the small hobby related subreddits though.

I'd be lying if I said I am unfazed, but I genuenly feel like I didn't deserve the opertunity to buy at these prices again. I had tripped into the rabbit hole before the fall 2024 run up, but was probably still >50% fiat at that point. During 2025, I kicked myself a lot for that and I had basicaly resigned myself to not having the opertunity to buy sub 70k ever again.

We didn't really mint any new Bitcoiners like we did in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

Hey hey no need for the doom and gloom, there are some of us here experiencing our first major bear market!

Wait, you dont know all the intricate details of bitcoin mining stabilizing renewable energy power grids in Texas?!?! The horror! Lol /s

Haha, maybe I spend some time on it, but I hardly trust myself to do the work perfectly. Proofs are hard.

I missed that physics woo-woo post when you made it. It seems somewhat related to a thought I've had about the sheer number of "if P then Q" statements Jeff makes in his theories. I dont know if Jeff appreciates the significance of a logical statement like that, it can't be right most of the time to be valid, it needs to be right always. I've been tossing around the idea of making a post about it to get thoughts from our local math proof nerds and lawyers.

He made a slight criticism of her not owning bitcoin and not understanding his thesis, not much more context. I would assume he was referring to his "the natural state of the free market is deflation" thesis, and the arguments he builds off of that.
He apparently learned these things while speaking with her in person.

That does seem to be the case. I found it funny that Jeff called out Gloria for not understanding his thesis but missed the flip side of that, he doesn't seem to understand the technicals.
Im not even remotely an expert on bitcoin code, but my CS background and all the posts @Murch has made here, as well as others on X like Adam Back and core devs, has made me somewhat confident that bip110 doesn't successfully do what it sets out to do. I haven't seen good arguments from the knots side as to how their side solves the spam problem, in fact they seem think it doesn't either, but trying is what counts. Which pretty much sums up idealists.

Sigh.......ah yes Seb Bunney.... the person who I would actively try and hide from anyone I know getting into bitcoin, out of fear of them finding him talking about perpetual motion machines he saw on youtube. He seems like a lovely person and a true believer, but I dont know if he's helping XD.

Yeah its a pretty tough decision for me personally. On one hand the discount to NAV offers great upside, on the other hand, they trade down there for a reason. Typicaly the main business is dragging the company down. It's hard to predict the future and we have had it go both ways, positive example being Strive, negative being Semler.

In the dumpster! I guess it depends on what mnav calculation you are doing but their website was .25 - .3 last time I checked.

Given that they are a publicly traded US security, they should be audited to make sure they have the assets they say they have, so I doubt they are lying about their btc holdings. Not sure how I feel about 4/6 multisig self custody over the large exchange institutional custody. That being said, I've skimmed over their financial fillings a few times and things are a little rough, getting better, but still rough. NFA I can't be trusted to skim 10Ks lol.

Are there any advantages to this strategy, over just having IBIT in a brokerage acount with margin against it? Other than the big one of realizing a gain on old btc to get it into the etf. You give up custody either way right? In kind redemption on an ETF seems like it would be handy in this scenario, though I dont know if thats possible with any yet.

Lol, where do you think he buys back in, 90k+? Classic buy high, sell low.

I feal like I may be in the wrong for how glad I am to see him capitulate, i've disliked this guy for years. But then again he has done some pretty scumy stuff. I think I remember coffeezilla doing some coverage on a shitcoin ICO related to his channel.

@remindme in 1 year

Let's be real though, 1 year is to short a time frame to be looking at any of this stuff, going up or down.

That's fair.

Non, I agree with your assessment of your post. I'm just commenting on the trend on SN in general.

Only thing I would point out is, sata has a higher dividend than strc and are trading closer to par, and they seem to be doing just fine.

One of these days someone is going to need to make a "strategy is dead" obituary page full of SN posts predicting their demise. This is getting quite silly lol.

Scaling a business to keep up with the growth of bitcoin isn't exaclty straight forward. Same thing that happens on an individual level when someone's stack starts to make their 9-5 DCA irrelevant.

In theory, if the win/lose is 50/50 could you employ a martingale betting strategy to improve the odds? It seems like it would work with a 75% payout. Granted the martingale strategy has a chance of getting extremely out of hand since it doubles the bet on every loss, and i'd imagine you would run into liquidity issues on that market if the bet got too big.

Absolute degeneracy, great stuff.