For example 49ers show 360k sats but it seems like there is a lot more traded on the market. @Undisciplined alone has 634k no shares
For other teams too the numbers don’t really add up to me. I would think 49ers have the most activity
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Just hedge against the 49ers by buying Yes shares on other teams.
They are too dumb to do that. They are happy to lock up hundreds of thousands of sats for 5 months to make 10% even though they could have made that 10x over betting other markets between now and then.
I can totally relate this with @Undisciplined buying No shares for 1.4M SN items and Yes shares for 1.5M items. I can't get his strategy. Is it rocket science that the lower number will have to be Yes to reach to the higher??
He just wants to troll @grayruby with no 49er exposure
@Undisciplined hedged out all his NO shares via bets on betplay. He knows the 49ers are winning the Super Bowl.
More that I think they’re likely enough to wind that I’m scared of being completely exposed
I’d do a 2x leveraged etf of 9ers no if I could
Want fully unhedged exposure
Ok Colin Coward. I do think the Cardinals probably beat them next week with Brock, Kittle, Robinson and Aiyuk out. So you can laugh it up when the Cardinals are 3-0 atop the division and I will enjoy the last laugh after week 18.
Yes, I don't understand what's bit their minds! very stupid tbh. Why put 500k sats to get 50k?? I'm not putting my sats on them, not until they're down to 4-5%.
It’s more satisfying buying No shares. Plus what if some wild card team out of nowhere wins the SB
What if that wild card team is the 49ers. Haha. Bye bye sats. Lose 170k sats to try to make 17k.
Could be but they have to make the playoffs first
Well 1-0 in the division is a good start. Second half of the season schedule is very easy. If they get through week 8 with a 4-4 record and kittle, purdy, aiyuk, mustafa are all back you better hope Kyler is playing at an MVP level or Stafford suddenly has the back of a 30 year old. Of course 10 other guys could be injured between now and then and you might be right they might miss the playoffs.
It's even worse than that. Traditional sports books have the 49ers around 5% chance to win the Super Bowl. So what they are arbing is the difference between what the odds should be 5% and what they are 12%. So in gross terms they will earn 10-12% but one net when you calculate the 5% potential risk of loss they are only earning 5-7%. And the funniest part is they think they are so smart for doing it.
I’ve wondered about that too
Handpick761 is more bearish 9ers than me
I was wondering if @grayruby would hesitate to push them back up after that.
I can keep the 49ers elevated with my winnings on Predyx. Meanwhile you dummies have locked up hundreds of thousands of sats for months to try and make 10-12% that you could have made 10 times over between now and then betting the other markets.
How many sats have you locked up for a 95% chance of -100% return?
200k. I have won more than 200k sats on predyx so it's a bet I am perfectly happy to make. We will see with the injuries but I still think the 49ers have a way better than 5% chance to win the SB. I think they are the 3rd best team in the NFC by the end of the season and they have a history of winning in the playoffs whereas Green Bay has a history of shooting themselves in the foot in the playoffs.
That’s pretty cheap for the havoc you’re causing
I think you guys caught a break with the Kittle and Purdy injuries. There is a good chance they will drop at least a couple games over the next four weeks. They haven't put Brock on IR or signed another QB so I am guessing they think it is on the lower side of 2-5.
Because only one team is gonna win out of 32, your chances of winning are more than 95% but it's still stupid and you know it.
Not all 32 teams have an equal chance of winning. Some are absolutely terrible. There are really only 10 teams (and that's being generous) that could win.
I mean if we just don't go by the odds but by just number of teams. Also, I don't just go by Odds but by real time analysis or when the games are happening.
The market is waking up to the arb opportunity here for risk free sats
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