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I can totally relate this with @Undisciplined buying No shares for 1.4M SN items and Yes shares for 1.5M items. I can't get his strategy. Is it rocket science that the lower number will have to be Yes to reach to the higher??
He just wants to troll @grayruby with no 49er exposure
@Undisciplined hedged out all his NO shares via bets on betplay. He knows the 49ers are winning the Super Bowl.
More that I think they’re likely enough to wind that I’m scared of being completely exposed
I’d do a 2x leveraged etf of 9ers no if I could
Want fully unhedged exposure
Yes. If the cards aren’t 3-0 after facing Rattler, Young, and Jones I might consider abandoning my fandom altogether
Yes, I don't understand what's bit their minds! very stupid tbh. Why put 500k sats to get 50k?? I'm not putting my sats on them, not until they're down to 4-5%.
It’s more satisfying buying No shares. Plus what if some wild card team out of nowhere wins the SB
Could be but they have to make the playoffs first
Well 1-0 in the division is a good start. Second half of the season schedule is very easy. If they get through week 8 with a 4-4 record and kittle, purdy, aiyuk, mustafa are all back you better hope Kyler is playing at an MVP level or Stafford suddenly has the back of a 30 year old. Of course 10 other guys could be injured between now and then and you might be right they might miss the playoffs.
It's even worse than that. Traditional sports books have the 49ers around 5% chance to win the Super Bowl. So what they are arbing is the difference between what the odds should be 5% and what they are 12%. So in gross terms they will earn 10-12% but one net when you calculate the 5% potential risk of loss they are only earning 5-7%. And the funniest part is they think they are so smart for doing it.
They are too dumb to do that. They are happy to lock up hundreds of thousands of sats for 5 months to make 10% even though they could have made that 10x over betting other markets between now and then.