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Same energy:
It seems to me that this is all predicated on having a majority of hashrate. My frustration has been with an argument that goes: "We don't need a majority of hashrate because we will eventually get a majority of hashrate."
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Yes. The pre BIP-110 chain can always be wiped out again and again even if it gets ahead momentarily, while the BIP-110 chain cannot be wiped out when it falls behind.
To neuter this effect a counter-softfork would need to be deployed. Thence the lowest friction to a miner is to go with a soft fork.