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I would suggest that you first address the points @Scoresby raised in the OP, but beyond that for starters:
- You are wrong about the fork activating immediately upon reaching the threshold
- It makes no sense to claim that miners should signal late. If they support the proposal signaling early would help build momentum and be less risky.
- You misrepresent the potential downsides of being on the wrong side of the soft fork attempt
Scoresby's critique assumes that BIP-110 could fail to activate, but it can't. There's no timeout or "failed" state. Mandatory signaling forces lock-in at max_activation_height, regardless of organic support. The chain-split scenarios described rely on minority hashrate activation, but the 55% threshold prevents this.
Scoresby's critique assumes that BIP-110 could fail to activate, but it can't. There's no timeout or "failed" state. Mandatory signaling forces lock-in at max_activation_height, regardless of organic support. The chain-split scenarios described rely on minority hashrate activation, but the 55% threshold prevents this.
Uh… Your own article has table columns that are labeled “BIP 110 doesn’t activate”:
And you see, that’s where you lose me: when RDTS activates, all nodes running RDTS software will start to enforce it. If that covers only a minority of the hashrate, where does the additional hashrate suddenly come from to suddenly make the hashrate of the RDTS chaintip jump to 55%?
If e.g., 10% of the hashrate runs RDTS and participates in the mandatory signaling, the first block not signaling spawns a separate chaintip that with 90% of the hashrate builds block 9× as fast and just leaves the RDTS nodes behind.
I agree with you that it will certainly activate.
I'm wondering why you don't include the scenario where it activates with a minority of hash rate in your matrix.
How does a 55% threshold prevent a minority hashrate activation?
I'd be interested in hearing a bit more about why you decided to list the two paths in the matrix as "Activates 55%+ signal" and "Does not Activate." My understanding of the BIP is that it will activate in September for all nodes running it regardless of how many blocks signal (if it doesn't activate sooner).
I'd be happy to clarify any specific points you find untenable. My description of BIP-110 and its mechanics is grounded in game theory and the incentives at play within the network. If you have concerns, I'm open to discussing them with you in more detail.