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Venezuela seems different because Maduro was basically sold out by his underlings, as I understand it. That means there was something in place for after his removal.
Do we know for sure Khamanei wasn't sold out too?
I read that US handed Israel a no-kill list of people within the regime. Which suggests the possibility that there is a US friendly contingent, maybe able to take power.
I also read that Khameni left the military with standing orders to retaliate on their own if the chain of command were to break.
I think these two facts are pretty plausible explanations of the observable data, including rocket attacks on Arab neighbors that don't seem to have much strategic purpose.
If both claims are true, it would suggest that there is a power struggle internally, and whoever comes out on top will determine the course of the war and of Iran.
Do we know for sure Khamanei wasn't sold out too?
I don't know that he wasn't, but this already went much less smoothly than Venezuela.
My understanding is that the Iranian military is structurally decentralized and that it answered to someone else, anyway.
It seems to me like they're striking at neighbors who are collaborators with the US/Israel.
It seems to me like they're striking at neighbors who are collaborators with the US/Israel.
Right, but it's the lack of strategic purpose that suggests certain elements may be rogue. Like the attack on Turkey, for example.
But you're right, this is already way messier than Venezuela, and for how much the MAGA base hates refugee-driven immigration, this is going to create another swell of that.
How have things been for regular people since the removal?
I know it wasn't great in the immediate aftermath.
There is still no real, tangible improvement.
And I would say that the main obstacle for those still living in Venezuela to move towards a better future is the parasitic and state-dependent mindset left by more than 25 years of socialism.
Without a doubt, socialism is a cancer!
There is so much to say about this that its hard to summarize, but to try:
Its basically impossible to imagine how "America gets something out of Iran" war. The idea that we are going to drop a few weeks of bombs and suddenly Iran is going to love Israel and the 2 will exist in some sort of lasting peace is beyond the limits of credulity.
It is, however, possible to imagine US gets something out of toppling Maduro.
If they want to obtain economic natural resources while simultaneously appearing to the general public as a kind of liberating nation...
That's a good move...
And I also say that peace between Iran and Israel is not going to happen; this rivalry or division has existed for centuries...
Without a doubt! Trump is wrong this time!
Although I do agree with what he did in Venezuela, since those poor people are mired in misery and there are millions of Venezuelan migrants!