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Venezuela seems different because Maduro was basically sold out by his underlings, as I understand it. That means there was something in place for after his removal.

Do we know for sure Khamanei wasn't sold out too?

I read that US handed Israel a no-kill list of people within the regime. Which suggests the possibility that there is a US friendly contingent, maybe able to take power.

I also read that Khameni left the military with standing orders to retaliate on their own if the chain of command were to break.

I think these two facts are pretty plausible explanations of the observable data, including rocket attacks on Arab neighbors that don't seem to have much strategic purpose.

If both claims are true, it would suggest that there is a power struggle internally, and whoever comes out on top will determine the course of the war and of Iran.

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Do we know for sure Khamanei wasn't sold out too?

I don't know that he wasn't, but this already went much less smoothly than Venezuela.

My understanding is that the Iranian military is structurally decentralized and that it answered to someone else, anyway.

It seems to me like they're striking at neighbors who are collaborators with the US/Israel.

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It seems to me like they're striking at neighbors who are collaborators with the US/Israel.

Right, but it's the lack of strategic purpose that suggests certain elements may be rogue. Like the attack on Turkey, for example.

But you're right, this is already way messier than Venezuela, and for how much the MAGA base hates refugee-driven immigration, this is going to create another swell of that.

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50 sats \ 2 replies \ @Akg10s3 5h

I agree with you!

Now we just have to wait and see what will happen politically in that country, since right now the government's power is in a sort of limbo...

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How have things been for regular people since the removal?

I know it wasn't great in the immediate aftermath.

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58 sats \ 0 replies \ @Akg10s3 4h

There is still no real, tangible improvement.

And I would say that the main obstacle for those still living in Venezuela to move towards a better future is the parasitic and state-dependent mindset left by more than 25 years of socialism.

Without a doubt, socialism is a cancer!

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