Can we talk about Balaji? He is much more succesful than me, but his claim to fame was a pharmaceutical startup many moons ago, which he sold at the right time, for a couple hundred million dollars. Since then he hasnt really achived anything. He got on board as Coinbase chief technical officier afaik, but he soon quit, probably because he realized that had real responsibility and work. He has since then just been a twitter troll afaik, and this contribution is not that different imo.

812 sats \ 0 replies \ @k00b 18 Mar

Eh I wouldn't worship him, but you're short changing him.

He's been advising much of Silicon Valley since his exit 20 years ago (he was at a16z before most people even knew it existed). He has been quoting Sovereign Individual since 2013. He was CTO at Coinbase because his company Earn, which is a kind of grandfather to all bitcoin earning applications (lightning just didn't exist yet), was acquired by Coinbase.

Recently, he was way ahead on the significance and consequences of covid. (Yes, people who think covid is the flu think he's a hysteric; regardless, he predicted the gov response to covid months before governments even began responding to covid.)

Granted, he makes a lot of predictions and we are all prone to forgetting "the misses," but he's been early, precise, and right more than nearly anyone that I know of.

That said, this prediction seems bonkers to me too. The strongest thing it has going for it is he's closely connected to people collectively managing trillions of dollars.

He seems pretty sure that we're headed for a full-on megabank crisis that makes 2008 look like child's play.

EVEN IF HE'S RIGHT, his time horizon is unrealistic for that many people to come to understand & invest in bitcoin in time. - And never bet against the government's ability to propogandize the masses and make them somehow believe the crashes aren't that big of a deal for years, just like they did with the covid vaccine.

He gonna lose $2 m in 90 days. Hope I'm wrong, but I'd take his bet in a heartbeat.

I think he's absolutely insane, but I also think that bitcoin's extremely scare nature has the capability of making it blow the fuck up if mass adoption were to hit overnight. Even everyday plebs figuring out how to buy $100-$1000 on cashapp would cause a wild upward swing

Idkkk man, a lot can happen in three months, can’t underestimate this insane timeline we live in. Buying more bitcoin regardless.

Apocalyptic scenario if bitcoin is 1M in 3 months

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @gmd 18 Mar

Yup. Hoping he's wrong bigtime. Surprised he didn't given it 5 years- a lot of people still take that bet. 90 days is insane.

59 sats \ 3 replies \ @nout 18 Mar

I'm trying to parse what are the actual conditions of the bet? How much did he hedge?

Counterparties can bet that bitcoin's price will be less than $1m in 90 days with ~40:1 odds. Specifically, he bet 2 people bitcoin will be at $1m in 90 days. If he wins, they pay him 1 bitcoin. If they win, he pays them $1m.

0 sats \ 1 replies \ @ar 18 Mar

Did the other people KYC or is this a new boating accident strategy?

I think it’s people he knows

91 sats \ 1 replies \ @om 18 Mar

The worst thing about this bet is that Balaji isn't just going to beclown himself but also his network states. A pity, really, they deserve better.

If you ever wondered what "stay humble" means in the "Stay humble and stack sats" motto, this is the exact opposite of it.

HOWEVER: the actual condition of the bet is not 1 BTC > 1M USD, it's "US enters hyperinflation", whatever that means.

This was updated in a subsequent tweet. It is that 1 HTC > 1M USD

this inspired us to post a summary of the Bitcoin classic - "Gradually, Then Suddenly" by Parker Lewis.

Nothing else captures Balaji's thesis so succinctly.

If you know, you know.

as Selkis put it:

The three scariest words in the English language:

“Balaji was right.”

Listening to him with Breedlove on Twitter spaces rn

The bankers lied? That's like saying the milkman doesn't come around anymore. Where have you been? Who at this point doesn't know they lend all your money out 10x over? The money isn't in there. The money isn't in there. The money isn't in there. The money isn't in there. The money isn't in there. The money isn't in there. The money isn't in there. The money isn't in there. The money isn't in there.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @om 19 Mar

Who at this point doesn't know they lend all your money out 10x over?

The reserve requirement in US is 0% since 2020. The money isn't in there times infinity.

This isn't bet...its marketing spend.

For 1M Balaji creates a marketing campaign that will garner 10M+ worth of publicity

that a loooooong tweet. Balaji's fired up!


Lmao even


"I am not a bitcoin maximalist, but we are all bitcoin maximalists now.“ @balajis

I think that man is playing 3D chess.

I don't see Balaji's end game, but he's up to something.

If 1 BTC >= $1M then the US has entered hyperinflation. At that point, $1M could maybe get you a new Honda Civic of the lowest trim. I think he's going to lose $1M.

I wonder if he's trying to generate FOMO...

For this to occur, it probably requires 1.5T of capital flowing into Bitcoin in a short period of time with no long term holders willing to sell and almost everyone taking self custody so exchanges can't sell paper bitcoin. This is just an estimate assuming a ridiculous fomo event that pushed up the marketcap to realized price to around a 10x.

Probably requires a nation state printing money to buy bitcoin. I think a lot of coins would come to market once we hit 6 figures. There would have to be a real systemic shift and a broad narrative change around Bitcoin amongst the majority of people for that to occur. Things happen fast but this would not just be a black swan event, this would be the asteroid hitting earth event.

What are the chances that Balaji is trying to pump Bitcoin as much as possible and stupid Eth by proxy so he and his VC buddies can maximize their gains when they unstake and sell next month?

Cheers, GR

Scary. It would mean a global disaster.

It's easy to do! Create a Stable Coin to be made out of air like the Fed does. and put an order to buy all the coins off the market) Thes is already being produced... but other fiat currencies will have to be sacrificed. which ones? the oldest and most reliable ones. so 1,000,000 per coin is not the limit. and 90 days is not much 101 I give you...

Tweet it my guy!

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