Yes, I agree with you! Based on expections, in May 2024 the FED will make a pivot on the interest rates. About how aggressively...I think will be extremelly aggressive...I expect a down under 2%. Btw...this period coincide with election, and the Bitcoin halving...maybe they will search a reason to cut more aggressively. My opinion is, that once the pivot will be active, a dump is more than possible... BUT... I think it will be a very short term dump, maximum 1-2 weeks...maybe a crash is not excluded...or a black swan? IDK (I have no cristal globe), but we will see ;)

That's what would normally happen in an establishment approved incumbent's election year. However, I've been sensing a desire to ditch Biden for a while. I think there have been several trial balloons over the course of his first term to do so and the corporate press is not nearly as sycophantic as you would expect.

That leads me to expect that the Fed will not take aggressive measures to bail out the economy. I think they're still very concerned about inflation, too.

The wrinkle that I haven't thought about enough is what role this new war in the Middle East might play.

To answer your questions more directly, I expect rates will be pretty similar come election time and the economy will be crashing severely. I'm not a macro guy though, so don't be surprised if that's not at all what happens.

In certain types of repeated games, cooperation can only be sustained until one player perceives the end as approaching. From that point on, the strategy switches to grabbing as much for yourself as possible.

In recent years, I've felt like the western "elites" made an analogous strategic shift and it's made me wonder if it's because they saw the end coming.