That's what would normally happen in an establishment approved incumbent's election year. However, I've been sensing a desire to ditch Biden for a while. I think there have been several trial balloons over the course of his first term to do so and the corporate press is not nearly as sycophantic as you would expect.

That leads me to expect that the Fed will not take aggressive measures to bail out the economy. I think they're still very concerned about inflation, too.

The wrinkle that I haven't thought about enough is what role this new war in the Middle East might play.

To answer your questions more directly, I expect rates will be pretty similar come election time and the economy will be crashing severely. I'm not a macro guy though, so don't be surprised if that's not at all what happens.