620 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby 27 Nov 2023 \ on: Meta Econ Takeover Day 42 meta
What's your thought on the course of action the Fed will take leading into the election? I think they will cut but how aggressively? I guess a better way of framing it is what will fed funds be at election time?
My guess is they start cutting by late Q1 or early Q2 and get fed funds down under 4% by the election.
Yes, I agree with you!
Based on expections, in May 2024 the FED will make a pivot on the interest rates.
About how aggressively...I think will be extremelly aggressive...I expect a down under 2%.
Btw...this period coincide with election, and the Bitcoin halving...maybe they will search a reason to cut more aggressively.
My opinion is, that once the pivot will be active, a dump is more than possible... BUT... I think it will be a very short term dump, maximum 1-2 weeks...maybe a crash is not excluded...or a black swan? IDK (I have no cristal globe), but we will see ;)
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Wow under 2. Aggressive.
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Yes, it is very aggressive.
Check this site about interest rates expectations:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
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That's what would normally happen in an establishment approved incumbent's election year. However, I've been sensing a desire to ditch Biden for a while. I think there have been several trial balloons over the course of his first term to do so and the corporate press is not nearly as sycophantic as you would expect.
That leads me to expect that the Fed will not take aggressive measures to bail out the economy. I think they're still very concerned about inflation, too.
The wrinkle that I haven't thought about enough is what role this new war in the Middle East might play.
To answer your questions more directly, I expect rates will be pretty similar come election time and the economy will be crashing severely. I'm not a macro guy though, so don't be surprised if that's not at all what happens.
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Interesting. I am sure the fed will start cutting though as soon as Jamie Dimon goes on CNBC and says it is time or Bill Ackman is crying on CNBC again while putting on a 2B option bet like he did with covid.
I can't stand Ackman and the fact that he wants Dimon to be President sickens me even more. I don't want to think about how rotten and corrupt everything is. It's depressing. I am going to buy more bitcoin.
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Ditto on both of them. For years I watched Squawk Box every morning. The idea of a President Dimon is the stuff of nightmares.
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If we get those kinds of performances it will either mean I'm wrong about how the establishment views Biden or that they got him out of the way already.
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