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1501 sats \ 20 replies \ @ek 3 Dec 2023 \ parent \ on: Stacker Saloon

👀

https://m.stacker.news/6558

MVP 3 days late but now really almost done; literally only need to implement this confirm button*. If I don't create a post announcing the MVP on SN in the next 24 hours, I will delete my account, lol.

Wasn't active on SN for a week since it can be quite distracting and I did not want to show up on SN without a MVP for the prediction market, lol

I've mentioned prediction markets on lightning for the first time early this year but started talking about it more and more recently such that it got more and more embarrassing that I have no prototype to show or anything despite my apparent excitement about prediction markets.

But I think I initially got the idea from @orthwyrm when we did bets on which day @orthwyrm can stop.

/cc @Undisciplined @grayruby for some reason I associate you two a lot with prediction markets on SN, lol

* and maybe some last testing of everything - oof pls no delays again

112 sats \ 5 replies \ @orthwyrm 3 Dec 2023

I am looking forward to this!

51 sats \ 4 replies \ @ek 3 Dec 2023

excited and scared but also excited noises

25 sats \ 3 replies \ @Natalia 3 Dec 2023

what scared you?

51 sats \ 2 replies \ @ek 3 Dec 2023

people going to judge my market haha

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Natalia 3 Dec 2023

or see it different ways - people gonna help you to improve your products, and you are free to choose what to listen to.

51 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 3 Dec 2023

yes, that's the exciting part :)

121 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 3 Dec 2023

Congrats my friend. Can't wait to try the MVP.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek 3 Dec 2023

found the big zapper 👀

and i think you can wait like you did all this time haha

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 3 Dec 2023

I was feeling an itchy zapper finger when I saw it was almost ready to go.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @davidw 3 Dec 2023

Congrats on getting so close. The announcement of the announcement that I’m here for.

I predict a riot tomorrow. You best do an AMA at launch

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @ek 3 Dec 2023

Congrats on getting so close. The announcement of the announcement that I’m here for.

Thanks :) And you're right, didn't realize I just announced the announcement, haha

You best do an AMA at launch

Oof, AMA, peak anxiety levels, haha

I can only imagine doing an AMA like this:

I just procrastinated my prediction market for 7 months, AMA

And btw, don't worry guys, I like making fun of myself :)

It's just hard to find the border for myself and others, haha

26 sats \ 8 replies \ @Natalia 3 Dec 2023 freebie

could we start with this - will @ekzyis announcing the MVP on SN in the next 24 hours? if not, he will delete his SN account.😂

but then how that would work for the people who think you would announce it within today?

101 sats \ 7 replies \ @ek 3 Dec 2023 freebie

haha exactly, i see you found the fun in prediction markets, haha

ok, let's get serious: this post was created 2023-12-03T08:30:58.478+00:00

So I have time until 2023-12-04T08:30:58.478+00:00 before I have to delete my account :)

procrastination intensifies

100 sats \ 6 replies \ @Natalia 3 Dec 2023

so how it works for others - do nothing and watch? 👀

1 sat \ 5 replies \ @ek 3 Dec 2023

Since the MVP is not out yet, we could do this verbally here. :)

Since I am betting that I will make it, you have to bet against (or find someone else to bet against) if you want to bet with real sats.

For example, I could say I will bet 10k sats and I am 99% sure that I will make it on time.

So I would be willing to risk 10k sats to win 10k*(1-0.99) = 100 sats

So if you would risk 100 sats to potentially gain 10k sats if I don't make the announcement on time, then we have a deal :)

The MVP makes exactly these trades easier. Will only work for questions which can be answered with YES or NO for now however.

101 sats \ 4 replies \ @Natalia 3 Dec 2023

Since I am betting that I will make it, you have to bet against (or find someone else to bet against) if you want to bet with real sats.

but I want you to make it on time too, otherwise no more @ekzyis here 🧐 I care less about 10k sats 😂😂😂

The MVP makes exactly these trades easier. Will only work for questions which can be answered with YES or NO for now however.

I see, maybe this also could be a way to encourage people get things done, like this https://gofuckingdoit.com/

1 sat \ 3 replies \ @ek 3 Dec 2023 freebie

I see, maybe this also could be a way to encourage people get things done, like this https://gofuckingdoit.com/

Ahh, didn't know this site, interesting! And yes, exactly, "game-able" prediction markets can be used as incentives

I basically did what gofuckingdoit.com does with @shurikencutter as my supervisor: I told him I'd pay him 50€ if I don't release my MVP in November. He can pay me a single symbolic sat if I win. But as history has shown, that didn't work. So I have to pay him 50€ now lol - btw, we can make it 150k sats :)

But I like thinking about this value aspect: Why didn't I say 100€? Or why not 25€? You really start questioning your own confidence when you're putting money on the line. So 50€ felt appropriate. Not too much to lose, not too little to lose.