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haha exactly, i see you found the fun in prediction markets, haha
ok, let's get serious: this post was created 2023-12-03T08:30:58.478+00:00
So I have time until 2023-12-04T08:30:58.478+00:00 before I have to delete my account :)
procrastination intensifies
so how it works for others - do nothing and watch? 👀
Since the MVP is not out yet, we could do this verbally here. :)
Since I am betting that I will make it, you have to bet against (or find someone else to bet against) if you want to bet with real sats.
For example, I could say I will bet 10k sats and I am 99% sure that I will make it on time.
So I would be willing to risk 10k sats to win 10k*(1-0.99) = 100 sats
So if you would risk 100 sats to potentially gain 10k sats if I don't make the announcement on time, then we have a deal :)
The MVP makes exactly these trades easier. Will only work for questions which can be answered with YES or NO for now however.
Since I am betting that I will make it, you have to bet against (or find someone else to bet against) if you want to bet with real sats.
but I want you to make it on time too, otherwise no more @ekzyis here 🧐 I care less about 10k sats 😂😂😂
The MVP makes exactly these trades easier. Will only work for questions which can be answered with YES or NO for now however.
I see, maybe this also could be a way to encourage people get things done, like this https://gofuckingdoit.com/
I see, maybe this also could be a way to encourage people get things done, like this https://gofuckingdoit.com/
Ahh, didn't know this site, interesting! And yes, exactly, "game-able" prediction markets can be used as incentives
I basically did what gofuckingdoit.com does with @shurikencutter as my supervisor: I told him I'd pay him 50€ if I don't release my MVP in November. He can pay me a single symbolic sat if I win. But as history has shown, that didn't work. So I have to pay him 50€ now lol - btw, we can make it 150k sats :)
But I like thinking about this value aspect: Why didn't I say 100€? Or why not 25€? You really start questioning your own confidence when you're putting money on the line. So 50€ felt appropriate. Not too much to lose, not too little to lose.
could we start with this - will @ekzyis announcing the MVP on SN in the next 24 hours? if not, he will delete his SN account.😂
but then how that would work for the people who think you would announce it within today?