The day has come to finalize your bets on the number of days after the first comment of the legendary snail (because using dates would be too easy).
I have discussed the details of our bet with @grayruby and @Undisciplined in this thread. We have come to the conclusion to do the following:
Everyone has a buy in but the buy in post and update posts as people are eliminated will earn zaps and rewards so just add those into the pot.
That's exactly what I would suggest. Make the buy in relatively small (5k or so), but then keep adding post and comment zaps received by @oracle to the pot. For reference, the NBA survivor pool has received over 20k in zaps and we've only been doing it for about a month.
So I would say let's do 1k sats as the buy in to not price anyone out. We're doing this mostly for fun, right? :)

Therefore, the terms of participation in the $100k bitcoin bet are as follows:

  1. Pay @oracle 1k sats via LN address since this allows you to add a comment to the payment:
On my end, this will look like this:
  1. Reply with "paid" (or something) to this post so I can confirm that your payment has been received by replying to you. I will include your number in the reply so we can confirm that this is your number now. If everything checks out at this point, you are 100% locked in. No number changes, no sat returns. You can delete your comment, but you cannot delete my comment, lol :)
This means you can still change your number if you really want to by putting a new number than before in the sender comment. I will not make sure that no one changed their number since part 1 or before. But others might, lol :)
  1. I will regularly post updates about the bet. For example, I will post when people were eliminated and what the current pot size is since this might change over time by new people joining or because of 4.
  2. Zap @oracle since the wallet of @oracle will be the pot size! You don't even have to participate to do that. Any @anon can zap @oracle.
  3. If bitcoin does reach $100k at a day which was not picked by someone, then the closest number wins.
  4. If there are multiple numbers with the same closeness, the pot will be divided evenly.
  5. Your number must be at least 90 days in the future.
  6. If you lose, that's it, you're eliminated and your elimination will be used to increase the pot via elimination posts.
  7. If you win, payout will be the same as the buy in: a transaction between two SN users (essentially SN's node paying itself). No payment of lightning invoices of other nodes, no onchain stuff.
Let me know if I forgot something or anything is unclear.
Now let's get serious!
And I will make sure now I don't lose access to this account, lol
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Just put an entry! Paid!
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Rey Mysterio's finisher move checked in! You will be included in the next update.
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Haha, thanks!
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @486DX2 2 Jan
Paid. Good luck all!
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Sorry that it took me so long but can confirm now that your number is 486
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608 locked in! Seems like a lot of people are betting on 6XX ...
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Can confirm, 570 locked in.
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Paid.
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427 received! Close to @ekzyis' pick of 420. This might get interesting.
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paid! 100k lessssgo
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Interestingly, SN thinks your nym is not @mango. It's probably related to you changing your nym since you last logged out. But no worries, fortunately you entered your nym in the message :)
359 locked in!
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For reference,
The pot size is currently ~120k sats
The day is currently 252
Have fun.
__@_'-'
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60 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek 23 Dec 2023
friendly snail just passing through __@_'-'
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I should get used to replying as @oracle on here.
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Btw, I will just count your generosity for locking in 260 (EOY) :)
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Paid.
Thanks for organizing this @ekzyis! Wishing everyone luck and let's have some fun!
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you were the first to pay up. 666 locked in!
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Paid. Yes, I upped my estimate to 587. Am I locked in now :)
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You are!
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Finally put an entry in! Paid!
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Thanks for participating! @oracle will respond soon.
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paid
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Sorry for the delay, 584 locked in!
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ek 11 Apr
  1. If you win, payout will be the same as the buy in: a transaction between two SN users (essentially SN's node paying itself). No payment of lightning invoices of other nodes, no onchain stuff.
We need to relax this rule since the pot got too big and there are deposit limits on SN accounts now (250k currently).
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Paid. Ekzyi peazy 🫛 thanks for coordinating @ekzyis!
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564 received and no worries, @ekzyis is having fun!
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Are you sure? Did you zap the post? I see no invoice with your nym in my wallet history.
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I zapped the post. Did I screw up? I guess it's a donation! I should have read more carefully
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Haha, it's okay, was about time that someone screws up :)
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Paid
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522 check!
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Paid… gonna be a hell of a day when it pops! Will the price break before the snail does?
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I see, someone changed their mind ... 501 it is! Good luck! :)
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I wasn’t going to… but you did call me out.
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Paid. And zapping this post 1k sats to spice up the pot.
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655, even closer to @gnilma's pick than @Undisciplined. Is there some insider trading going on here?
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I made that pick many months ago. I just based it on a normal bull cycle where the peak would be hit some time around Q3 or Q4 of 2025 so I figured we would be reaching the previous ATH sometime in Q4 2024 and then getting to 100k in early 2025. If I were to reassess now I would probably move it up a bit as I think with the halving, etfs, fed pivot all coinciding with very little supply available it could move up the timeline. But you never know. We might get to 80k and the US gov decides now is a good time to sell all our Bitcoin and stop this freight train or the Mt Gox bitcoin payouts happen and people sell because the price is up. All kinds of exciting things could happen.
It's not out of the realm of possibility we don't hit 100k this cycle and no one wins. We could also see something crazy where bitcoin shoots from 45k to 100k a couple weeks after the etfs launch if demand is significantly higher than expected.
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When I made my pick initially @grayruby had the highest pick and I was just trying to undercut him. It's even better now that @gnilma is overcutting him too.
I just made my pick based on the number of the devil because we are playing a fiat number game and fiat is evil. I didn't even know what the other guys picked. All a coincidence...
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653, close to @gnilma's pick.
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