It’s becoming clear that MicroStrategy has no plans to stop buying Bitcoin, and is able to source plenty of dollars from investors to increase their holdings. It’s also clear that they’re accelerating their purchases and are piling on to the incredible ETF demand we’ve been seeing lately, pushing Bitcoin prices higher (thus dollar prices lower).
Now there is chatter that Bitcoin’s price rise may be interfering with inflation targets at the Fed, lowering the likelihood of rate cuts this year.
Surely there are lots of dollar holders and government officials who are unhappy about this, and want to paint Bitcoiners as the villains in the battle to return to 2% inflation.
We all know this line of reasoning is wrong, but that has never stopped people from attacking Bitcoin in the past.
So… let’s entertain a hypothetical situation here. Imagine you are a government official tasked with stopping MicroStrategy, Tesla, BlackRock, and others from buying more Bitcoin because you’ve realized it’s hurting the dollar.
How might you approach this challenge without putting the financial system or the smooth functioning of capital markets in danger?
Bonus sats for creative answers!
Under the pretext of financial stability, outlaw/hinder taking out dollar loans to buy Bitcoin and using Bitcoin as collateral for dollar loans.
Pressure the Fed to specifically mention the elevated price of Bitcoin as a reason why interest rates cannot be cut.
Nil capital gains taxes for Bitcoin held for less than six months with a caveat that if Bitcoin is repurchased within a year this exemption does not apply.
The more I think about this, the more it seems that a government clampdown will fail!
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 14 Mar
good ideas, i appreciate you taking an honest crack at this question!
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I'm thinking about some kind of civil asset forfeiture program. Issue legal orders seizing any bitcoin that are alleged to have been used in the commission of a crime. Then bitcoin holders would have to prove their specific bitcoin were not used in commission of a crime.
For small holders it wouldn't do much, since no one is declaring their bitcoin. However, the SEC could require public companies to only hold or transfer "clean" bitcoin. That would make it much less attractive to buy or hold bitcoin.
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COMPLIANCE is what will kill Bitcoin. Companies and individuals should simply stop complying.
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45 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 14 Mar
interesting idea, would probably get more effective over time as Coinbase’s BTC under management are growing every day (and they have full KYC on all their customers)
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This could be done very selectively, too. Imagine the feds identify an illegal bitcoin transaction, they could follow the transactions forward and see if any ended up with MicroStrategy. Then they issue orders for MicroStrategy to relinquish the bitcoin. On the other hand, if it had ended up with a politically favored corporation they could just drop the investigation.
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Congress and the clown in chief haven't really tried to stop bitcoin yet. Not really. Look at what they are trying to do to Tik Tok now. For those that believe in the Constitution's ability to stop stuff how's that working for ya?
I would not be surprised to see a bill come before Congress to address this growing threat to the dollar. I don't think it will pass. Here's why. With the approval of the ETFs this type of legislation would interfere with pension funds across the US that are already buying or are considering buying. These are union pensions. I don't see the types of politicians that would seek these voters wanting to go up against the unions.
Gonna be interesting to watch it all play out.
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Back to taxes
The Biden administration is trying to tax miners at 30%
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Will be interesting to see how that goes in court if it ever actually happens. I fully expect it go be fought and defeated. Seems ridiculous on the face.
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I agree! One thing governments do is pick winners and losers. Clearly someone in the administration doesn’t like the bitcoin mining industry. If they did it would rain subsidies like solar tech does
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Exactly right. I don't know what the endgame is here, but BlackRock isn't buying all this bitcoin without the US government's implicit okay.
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tik tok legislation is wide enough to attack bitcoin
maybe that's the real goal
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I doubt that is the goal. They aren't that bright.
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the goal isn't protecting kids from tiktok, we know that much
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if you were tasked with writing a bill that would pass, how would you do it?
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I'm too smart to step in front of a hurricane. I wouldn't try to pass a law that would make me look like a fool.
Also, if nominated I would not run. If elected I would not serve. :)
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ok, but let’s play this hypothetical game and imagine you have no choice.
your career depends on maintaining the dollar’s strength, and you view Bitcoin as an immediate threat to your job and your country.
how do you stop Bitcoin and live to fight another day?
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I need to think about this more. Maybe restrict home much bitcoin can be purchased on exchanges. Maybe go after Coinbase. Maybe go after Saylor's speaking about bitcoin while buying as some sort of made up financial wrong. I'm not an attorney. Would be curious what @siggy47 thinks.
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I don't know how they could try to stop it without it looking like a tacit admission that the dollar is fragile. Also, a weakening dollar eases US debt service, slows inflation worldwide, and boosts US exports. Is it possible (?) this is all welcome? I really haven't thought it through, but I still don't believe allowing spot ETFs was an accident that caught the US off guard.
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63 sats \ 3 replies \ @kr OP 14 Mar
i could see Coinbase being a good target, especially since they hold the BTC for most of the ETFs (and MSTR i believe).
would you force Coinbase to sell Bitcoin on behalf of clients by claiming some sort of national security threat?
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I think that would be to much. The risk with these leeches is that they make to many aware of what they are really doing. The key is to say unnoticed by the masses. If they push to hard they get push back. They don't want that. Their main goal is re-election.
I think making it harder and slower is far more likely. More regulations. Circuit breakers. Make it more like the rigged stock market.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 14 Mar
yeah i think this sounds much more reasonable.
limiting gains to 5% a day, enforcing strict regulations on who can buy, and maybe even requiring Bitcoin holders to pay some sort of recurring tax in the interests of “national security”… after all, Coinbase knows exactly who bought the Bitcoin they are holding.
clog the internet tubes
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That would bring the economy to a halt
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wouldn't be the first time. remember covid?
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30 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 14 Mar
yup, needs to be sneakier than that to be effective
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i think the most efficient way might honestly be the direction it seems our governments are heading now. bitcoin historically has a usability problem. things have gotten much better very fast, but there is still alot of work to be done in that regard. most of the limitations are technological even if they are for good reasons. people tend to gravitate toward easier solutions; things that make their life simpler or more convenient.
if it was me, i would accelerate an easier to use alternative and integrate it into our daily lives. most would say something like a CBDC which makes alot of sense. however, with twitter being so integral to many peoples' lives and this seems to be increasing and we already have contacts over there to help, i'd try to make this application that already has a giant network effect into an everything app. you can make payments super easy through it. just connect your bank account, like venmo, and boom! businesses can easily receive payments through it. integrate a pos system like square and bam! even better if we can then get people to pay for the privilege of this convenience.
why use bitcoin when i can easily send my favorite creator tips in a currency i already understand through an app i already have that makes it quick and painless?
now i think we are on to something, but in an effort to minimize the headache of telling people where to find you, we should give it a super short name. something single letter but cool. maybe Q or Z? we can come up with something later, but i think this would work well.
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134 sats \ 5 replies \ @kr OP 14 Mar
interesting idea, not sure if i agree here though:
why use bitcoin when i can easily send my favorite creator tips in a currency i already understand through an app i already have that makes it quick and painless?
MicroStrategy isn’t buying a bunch of Bitcoin so they can send it to creators, they’re buying it to hold it… how does a CBDC slow down their Bitcoin purchases?
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the idea isn't to slow their purchase. the idea is to make buying bitcoin as a speculative asset a bad investment. microstrategy is buying to sell later, more than likely. i'm not convinced of saylor's intentions to buy and use it later. meaning he's depending on there being a market for it later. shrink the interest in that market, and they stop buying because they can't sell in the future.
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Saylor has been clear he is not selling though.
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you're probably right. billionaire CEOs of corporations unaffiliated with what they are shilling are well-known for truth telling.
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What would be the hidden goal then, personal greed? He's just going to be the largest bitcoin holdings company, maybe become a bank, whatever possibilities that entails.
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lots could happen. buying up so much can be seen as manipulation of the price. pumps the price which causes others to hop on. do it for long enough then dump. owning so much gives alot of power if bitcoin ever does become an accepted currency in a place like the states. becoming a bank is interesting. also comes with alot of power.
regardless of what happens, my trust isn't earned by buying up so much of an asset, holding it, and giving back nothing in return outside of empty platitudes such as "there is no second best." i'm not saying he has to give back anything. however, i also don't have to trust his spoken intentions with no actions behind them.
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Buy bitcoin.
In the short term it would probably have a net positive effect on its price. Maybe it would scare some people and push them out of the market. Offer no taxes for anyone who sells to the government.
If price goes up, government makes money. If price goes down, they can continue to buy more. The total market cap of bitcoin is 14% of the budget biden just proposed so it is not like it would be hard to start amassing it.
I hope this does not happen.
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interesting ideas!
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How might you approach this challenge without putting the financial system or the smooth functioning of capital markets in danger?
Not sure that's possible to do it smoothly.
But as the value of the Bitcoin networks starts assassinating any hopes of controlling dollar inflation, my suggestion as head of the fed is to raise interest rates to 20% thus squashing any leveraged plays on Bitcoin. Exactly what they did when gold prices soared in 1971.
Alternatively, the government can develop a mitigation strategy to fund any old rich politician that wants to run for office and wag their fingers and say things like, "Bitcoin is bad because criminals use it". And to find old out-of-touch people to go on cable news networks and complain and talk about how Bitcoin doesn't have any value at all because it doesn't produce anything.
This octogenarian approach will fail. But it'll be fun for us to ridicule them.
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84 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 15 Mar
yeah i think cranking up interest rates could put a damper on bitcoin buying activity - for a while at least
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Hypothetical situations are wasted masculine energy. Best to think that Bitcoin will be attacked and as Mises points out in Human Action any activity is rational because someone wants a result from that action.
As the Buddha points out action that is incorrect is wasted. Like raising a sledge hammer in the air to empty a swimming pool by encouraging bees to make sandwiches.
We appreciate your question and apologize for our undesirable answer.
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wow this is a waste of a response.
  1. have an original thought. stop offloading your thinking to others.
  2. it's ironic that you're opting for not thinking through an issue ahead of time by quoting people best known for all the thinking they did before coming to the quotes your spouting.
  3. the buddha is referencing specifically to think through your actions before acting on them for precisely the reason you quote.
  4. wtf is masculine about not preparing for the future by wargaming out scenarios and how to combat them?
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We love soup sandwiches!
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30 sats \ 6 replies \ @kr OP 14 Mar
Best to think that Bitcoin will be attacked
sure, but how?
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Bitcoin will be attacked by Fiat funded organizations. They will have to print more money to front run price discovery and they will ruin their currency. Bitcoin will not be attacked by people who work for free!
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18 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 14 Mar
that sounds like it would help Bitcoin rather than hurt it.
if governments start printing money to buy Bitcoin, the price will rip.
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Any FIAT currency is a superficial attack and Bitcoin is the first non arbitrary measure of monetary v value.
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Yes. It will be attacked. Every possible way.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 14 Mar
what is the most likely possible way?
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Imagine the US dollar as a beaten and abused wife....and you are asking "what will her husband do now protect her?" Why? He could have "protected her" all along, but chose to abuse her. They've always the power to protect the dollar but have failed to do it. Its clear that this is their desire.
They want to destroy the USD so they can implement their next plan.
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31 sats \ 4 replies \ @kr OP 14 Mar
They want to destroy the USD so they can implement their next plan.
what’s their next plan?
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I think there are competing plans by competing factions.
  • Lets steal and rob as much as possible
  • Lets do this so we can dismantle the constitution and enact a socialist paradise
  • Lets do this so we can end the nation state and move to WEF-style public/private partnership model
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We hear “borders are absurd” by more than a few stackers
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Boundaries are not absurd. The borders in our houses, or the border in a hypothetical gated community or small town of bitcoiners are definitely not absurd.
But the border of a nation-state? Maybe the border is not absurd. What is absurd is the idea of nation-state itself. Pretending that I belong with people that have very little in common with me and that often are working actively to destroy me.
You will soon have to decide what's more important to you: either people who share your "homeland" or people who share your values.
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Bitcoin.
Wait, maybe not.
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The only thing I want to see from this bullrun is a second Microstrategy company. Or a second El Salvador. Or other kind of prominent person/entity getting seriously orangepilled.
Litterally nothing else matters as much.
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i hope so too, it also reduces the risk of someone trying to go after MSTR or El Salvador.
today you only need to attack a single company or government, it’s much harder to attack a handful.
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Imagine you are a government official tasked with stopping MicroStrategy, Tesla, BlackRock,
Wrong assumption. Govs doesn't exist. Only those corporations exist. Govs will NEVER stop those corporations. Saying that a gov will try to stop corporations is like slapping yourself in your face (your hand is the gov) and your face is the corporation.
Let's be clear about this and focus in things that matter: MERCHANTS ADOPTION AND PEOPLE USING BTC AS MONEY DAILY.
FIAT DELENDA EST
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51 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 14 Mar
i understand your viewpoint, just want to entertain this hypothetical situation as a way of understanding how future attacks on Bitcoin might unfold
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ah ok, nothing wrong with that.
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There are a few ways to do this, but I'm not sure if they would be effective.
One obvious way would be through stricter regulation, such as limiting the amount of bitcoin that institutions could hold.
Another way would be to continue using FUD to scare people away from bitcoin. This could lower the demand for bitcoin.
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85 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 14 Mar
wouldn’t an upfront limit on Bitcoin holdings just attract more companies to buy Bitcoin?
these kinds of upfront limits show weakness, it’s like a bank saying you can only withdraw $10/day, basically asking for a bank run.
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Fair enough, I hadn't thought of it that way.
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They must pick one: attack Bitcoin or save the financial system. There is no way to do both.
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Market sell the 200k bitcoin the US gov has. All the leveraged longs will get liquidated. Etf holders will panic and start selling. Price probably drops 25-30% over the course of a few days. Shorts pile on. Eventually the market finds it's footing but it takes many months to stabilize and start moving upwards again. That won't stop Saylor from buying but it will slow down the speculative fervor that hasn't even really started yet.
Unfortunately for the powers that be you can only pull this lever once. You could try to dampen Bitcoin's move by selling more slowly but that doesn't have the same impact and create panic.
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Good answer. I'm curious how much price movement that set of actions would induce. Like, if you punch the people who just got into the ETFs in the face really hard, how many of them spook? Seems like it would be a lot.
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I think there are three subsets of etf holders. People who already had bitcoin exposure who are adding bitcoin to their retirement accounts via ETFs. People who didn’t have bitcoin exposure until ETFs and Wall Street firms (hedge funds, large financial advisory firms, family offices). I think 1 and 3 won’t be easily shaken out but 2 would.
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If it were down to government (hypothetically I), I would suggest to implement an unified payment interface (As India is already doing). It will allow everyone to be proactively using Fiat money to buy goods and services rather just hoarding and investing.
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256 sats \ 0 replies \ @joda 14 Mar
While I agree that is where we will certainly end up, this doesn't affect Bitcoin much because it's already NOT useful for transactions. 99.99 percent of people haven't used it in a transaction, businesses don't accept it, and no one even really wants to use it (except Darth). Everyone wants to HODL. I already do instant payments from my phone with a credit card that gives me chargeback power and cash back rewards.
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I peg the dollar to Bitcoin instead of gold. The earnings would be: *Mining of toxic gold is minimized. *The ground is prepared for the transition of the monetary system to Bitcoin.
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Blackmail
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They've probably tried multiple times to honey-trap him and get some compromising footage. The Epstein operation obviously ended, but you know that wasn't the only operation set up to compromise high profile targets in order to control their behaviour.
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As of today the Govt can't control on what you spending your money on (in the most part). With CBDC they will have that control that's why they will push it every chance they get. The whole point of Bitcoin is to have an alternative that Govt can't control. Let's keep it this way. I like Saylor and what they do to spread the word of Bitcoin but I will not lose a single tear if they disappear tomorrow. I'm sure BlockRock and the likes would gladly buy their (MicroStrategy's) Bitcoin should they be forced to sell it. (doubtful) The Badger still doesn't care about inflation, MicroStrategy or the Govt....that's their's problems. tick-tack next block... I think MS is watching the Govt more attentively that the Govt watching MS, they have smarter lawyers i bet. They will be fine.
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The whole playbook with acquiring BTC with debt of Microstrategy is sickening. I can understand that "big players" always bought hard assets and hold them forever, but Bitcoin is a freaking electronic cash system and it was made to be used, not to be "held forever"! I don't thing we will ever have a healthy economy for as long as there are those crazy indebtments. Wasn't the whole point of Bitcoin to get rid of debt, and use hard money instead of fiat and debt? Isn't the theory which made Ammous famous (and Austrian economics) the one of starting to use hard money instead of fiat (and debt)? Btw I don't think this playbook will be stopped from the GOVt. As long as is so easy to get into debt this system will be abused...maybe one day, if holders stop accepting dollars or any other forms of bad money for btc, and we all start using btc only as medium of exchange...
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The key thing of this question is: where?
Any approach that is not taken on a world wide level, will just drive away the future of finance outside your country. Even in the US, which has the most regulatory power to fight bitcoin, there are strong forces in play that do not want that.
Bitcoin has already won.
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I will open a marketplace for every coin on the stock exchange of my country. Tax them 10% on gains accumulated and I do t think that anyone will have objection to this.
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Using global warming concerns, implement a carbon tax for holding bitcoin. Set a percentage of the dollar value of bitcoin as an "offset" and effectively squash any public holdings being profitable.
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