I discovered Bitcoin mining in 2011. I was on my parent’s macbook pro and found this magical internet money that you could make by just running software on your computer. I loved the idea. Make money collecting magical internet coins by running a computer program and I can just play video games all day. Perfect. I downloaded some Bitcoin mining software and I was off to the races. Then my computer started heating up and slowing down. I couldn’t even move my mouse, much less play any games. I stopped the software and abandoned my hopes and dreams of passive income via computer coins and continued playing video games.
What I experienced was loss. Not actual physical loss, but I didn’t win the competition of Bitcoin mining—I lost. Mining is a winner-take-all contest by design. That means nearly all miners are losers (most of the time). Sometimes a miner wins, but mostly they lose. This loss is such a big problem for miners that mining pools were created to solve it. More technically, mining pools de-risked the variance of winning the block reward by enabling miners to aggregate their hashrate. It’s a great solution, the only problem is now they are critically centralized.
Four mining pools dominate over 75% of the network hashrate. Over 75% of Bitcoin blocks are published by Foundry, AntPool, ViaBTC, and F2Pool. The other 17 or so pools account for the rest of the hashrate. Why are they centralized? Well it’s to do with miner financing and pool payout schemes. Essentially, economies of scale enable bigger players to do better. More money makes more money.
The problem with mining pool centralization is that it threatens the censorship resistance of Bitcoin. America and China dominate 75% of Bitcoin network hashrate. If the CIA and/or the CCP want to start censoring Bitcoin transactions, they just need to have a friendly chat with the CEOs of Foundry, AntPool, ViaBTC, and F2Pool. Then transactions from sanctioned addresses aren’t included in their blocks. Of course, other mining pools can pick up those transactions, but the power of fear has a way of propagating itself. After Samurai devs got charged, Sparrow wallet dropped coinjoin capability. Will the small pools resist if the big pools bow down to the authority? What happens if the authority becomes angry and threatens violence?
StratumV2 can solve the censorship aspect of pools as it enables miners to choose the transactions they include in blocks. If the majority of miners were running StratumV2, the CIA would have a tough time censoring Bitcoin. The problem is that big pools are too slow to adopt the new technology. It’s also tough to convince a miner to redirect their hashrate to a small pool with higher variance and make them do the work to change their setup. Inertia means a miner in motion stays in motion, and will only move for more money. For more miners to mine in StratumV2 pools, they need to economically incentivized to do so. If the net reward they earn will be greater than if they mine in an FPPS pool, they will redirect their hashrate accordingly.
So we know mining pools are critically centralized, and we need to do something about it. Miners need a way to profitably mine in smaller StratumV2 pools with higher variance. That’s where we come in.
Bitcoin Prediction Market enables miners to bet on which pool mines the next block. They can bet against their own pool, or bet on dominant pools like Foundry, AntPool, ViaBTC, or F2Pool. Speculators can also bet and gain exposure to the entropy of the block rewards. By observing the hashrate distribution, and the market odds, clever investors can bet to balance the odds. Bitcoin Prediction Market offers permissionless Lightning native ROI and miner insurance.
Be part of this game-changing moment in Bitcoin's history! Join the revolution and learn more at bitcoinprediction.info
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