The U.S. job market is showing clear signs of weakening, signaling a potential recession on the horizon. Nonfarm payrolls in July reported a significant drop to 114,000 from the previous 206,000, falling short of the estimated 176,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.1%, missing expectations. Stay prepared for the economic downturn.
pull down to refresh
176 sats \ 41 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug 2024
Looks like it was a swing and miss with the soft landing! Whats worse is there still are several numbers that would typically say to keep the rates the same. Huge catch 22 for Powell and we are seeing it in the EU right now. They cut and inflation the next reading went up more than expected.
reply
100 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
Recession and on short inflation will be exploding higher. US can save itself by turning back to normal energy politics. EU is going down with its climate bs
reply
0 sats \ 39 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug 2024
You think this is caused from trumps presidency, or bidens?
reply
20 sats \ 37 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug 2024
I'd take a little from column A and a little from column B.
reply
32 sats \ 36 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug 2024
Or do you think it was bound to happen no matter what?
reply
67 sats \ 34 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug 2024
Economic cycles are about clearing out the misallocations that have accumulated over time. Obama was largely president during a correction, which doesn't mean there were no misallocations, but most of the misallocations we're dealing with were caused by Trump and Biden era policies.
I wouldn't say it was bound to happen, because if they hadn't been such economic interventionists there wouldn't be much to correct.
reply
42 sats \ 29 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug 2024
I wonder if the next president will have to deal with a worse economic cycle?
view all 29 replies
21 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug 2024
Trump's policies prior to COIVD I dont think would have resulted in the huge issue we have had to deal with. The COVID response was going to be expensive but the biggest issue to me is that the Biden Admin has not allowed for billions in unspent COVID spending to be clawed back. Not to mention the PPP loan program was filled with fraud and while Trump signed the initial part into law in April 2020 Biden has been in charge and taken a lot of credit for the program "success" even as it failed realistically.
view all 3 replies
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug 2024
I think I answered your question in the other post but let me know if I didn't!
reply
47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug 2024
There are two ways to look at it. If Biden gets all of the economic positive credit that started because of policies Trump laid down then I think Biden gets all of the inflation credit as well. It has been spun as if Trump caused the inflation but Biden saved the economy and I mean that just doesn't work.
I look at it more so from the COVID pandemic, which required a surge of government dollars to keep everything from collapsing. However, the rollout and implementation of it wasn't good hence the whole fraud issue. On top of that in Biden's 4 years his admin and Dem Members in Congress have prevented a lot of the unused funds from being clawed back. This would help lower the cost of everything since there are billions and billion in unused funds just sitting there. Using this money that is just sitting around would help slow down the money-printing machines in the US.
All of that it say is Trump caused some but it was required to prevent an economic collapse. The Biden Admin fumbled Trumps already enacted plans and then refused to take back unused money along with spending hundreds of billions more getting us in this situation.
reply
69 sats \ 6 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
The U.S. labor market faces increasing strain as the U6 unemployment rate, a comprehensive measure of underemployment, climbs to 7.8% in July from 7.4% in June 2024. The U6 index offers a realistic snapshot of the job market by including those who have stopped searching for work and those returning from studies, reflecting a broader and more accurate picture of employment challenges.
https://m.stacker.news/43020
reply
47 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug 2024
It's especially important to get the most holistic picture, right now. So many people are working part time jobs and many are working two jobs (which looks like two employed people in most of the metrics).
reply
92 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
And then there's the gov job creation machine to fake numbers
reply
47 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug 2024
Exactly. I know the Mises guys keep their own GDP and money supply analogues. Do you know if anyone maintains a more rigorous unemployment series?
reply
42 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
Sorry. I have no idea
reply
47 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug 2024
That might be an interesting thing to put together. As a starting point, I'm thinking it should basically be U4 plus government employment.
view all 1 replies
80 sats \ 1 reply \ @Athena 2 Aug 2024
If recession comes to U.S. then the world should also be prepared.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
i see large parts of the private sector as having been in recession for a long time. the massive effort that the state has made with its artificial demand has so far only covered this up. and now the truth is slowly coming to light
reply
89 sats \ 1 reply \ @BitcoinAbhi 2 Aug 2024
the New York Fed's recession probability model suggests there is still a 55 chance of a U.S. recession sometime in the next 12 months.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
these number games are completely obsolete anyway. if we subtract the massive government spending programs, which are financed with the printing press and bring nothing, the economy has been in recession for a long time. the same applies even more extremely to the eurozone.
reply
47 sats \ 1 reply \ @TheMorningStar 3 Aug 2024
I know it's more than 4.3%. Governments hide here 2% on an average.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 3 Aug 2024
Or even more
reply
47 sats \ 5 replies \ @Coinsreporter 2 Aug 2024
Oh! Now I see why government was trying to produce more jobs in government sector. They already knew it that the job matket will be weaker in coming days and they didn't wanna risk their election campaign.
reply
11 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 3 Aug 2024
Correct. The government has tried to save itself by crossing the finish line here until November. apparently that doesn't work so well after all
reply
58 sats \ 3 replies \ @Coinsreporter 3 Aug 2024
Obviously, they have just opened some thousand positions. I doubt if they complete the hiring before November. This government should be ashamed of trying to cheat people on it.
reply
11 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 3 Aug 2024
And they are financing this stupid charade with tax payer's money and inflationary tokens
reply
58 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter 3 Aug 2024
They are gonna lose thes elections for sure! You see the wind is blowing in the direction of a change everywhere. No government will repeat in developed world. And I'm a bit optimistic that new government will think of people's welfare.
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 3 Aug 2024
But thanks to mass media propaganda, made for a totally retarded public, Kamala is catching up now....
https://m.stacker.news/43172
reply on another page
47 sats \ 1 reply \ @JesseJames 2 Aug 2024
C'mon now, July-August everyone is on vacation, economy included... lol We will be right back to "not so soft landing " in September, just watch.... if you look hard enough and long enough it will get better... Keep your chin up.
reply
21 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
Especially here on the EUSSR!
reply
47 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satoshi__Nakamoto 2 Aug 2024
This will be bad situation for US unemployment rate is increasing day by day.
I think Ai is one of the major reasons for lack of job
WHAT you guys think about this please comment down
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
Is a factor, yes. But this recession os systemic and structural
reply
47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Kontext 2 Aug 2024
SAHM RULE TRIGGERED
https://m.stacker.news/43030
https://media1.tenor.com/m/mUzD8XHmgpEAAAAC/movie-time-movie.gifreply
47 sats \ 1 reply \ @Msd0457890 2 Aug 2024
Can someone explain to me how the country with one of the largest economies in Latin America is heading straight for recession and rising unemployment rates?
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
Lol
reply
47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug 2024
Its been weakening for a while.
Unemployment is super high, too.
This job market is weird, they take so much time to hire people.
Its like they arent serious.
reply
47 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 2 Aug 2024
https://m.stacker.news/43017
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-openings-edge-lower-june-2024-07-30/reply
47 sats \ 11 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug 2024
I'm listening to a guy on CNBC blaming Powell for not cutting sooner. No talk of target inflation rate.
reply
43 sats \ 10 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug 2024
Aw crap I just turned to it who was it?! My fav guy is on rn with Rick Santelli
reply
47 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug 2024
Full disclosure. He did come back on and talked about inflation target. He basically said ignore it.
reply
43 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 2 Aug 2024
https://m.stacker.news/43023
What inflation...
It'll come back soon. But not now
reply
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug 2024
I'm hearing arguments both ways. Deflation, or 70s style stagflation in the US over the next year or two. We'll see.
reply
47 sats \ 6 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug 2024
I don't know. I have never seen him before. He's not a regular. Santelli is the best they have, other than Joe,
and he has a good take.
reply
43 sats \ 5 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug 2024
He really is! He speaks his mind no matter how it is going to make people feel and pretty freakin often hits the nail on the head! He will battle Andrew Sorkin as well along with Joe Kernen!
reply
10 sats \ 4 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug 2024
Joe is the resident stacker😀
reply
43 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug 2024
Joe is what I want to be in life... Having zero cares calling it like he sees is and roasting Andrew at every opportunity that he can!
view all 3 replies
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 3 Aug 2024
I feel like I missed most of the conversations on here because I fell asleep.
reply
47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Octopus 2 Aug 2024 outlawed
stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.
47 sats \ 1 reply \ @77edb424fc 2 Aug 2024 outlawed
stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.