U.S. Job Market Signals Looming Recession \ stacker news ~news

U.S. Job Market Signals Looming Recession

1027 sats \ 86 comments \ @TomK 2 Aug news

The U.S. job market is showing clear signs of weakening, signaling a potential recession on the horizon. Nonfarm payrolls in July reported a significant drop to 114,000 from the previous 206,000, falling short of the estimated 176,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.1%, missing expectations. Stay prepared for the economic downturn.

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176 sats \ 41 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug

Looks like it was a swing and miss with the soft landing! Whats worse is there still are several numbers that would typically say to keep the rates the same. Huge catch 22 for Powell and we are seeing it in the EU right now. They cut and inflation the next reading went up more than expected.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

Recession and on short inflation will be exploding higher. US can save itself by turning back to normal energy politics. EU is going down with its climate bs

0 sats \ 39 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug

You think this is caused from trumps presidency, or bidens?

20 sats \ 37 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

I'd take a little from column A and a little from column B.

32 sats \ 36 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug

Or do you think it was bound to happen no matter what?

67 sats \ 34 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

Economic cycles are about clearing out the misallocations that have accumulated over time. Obama was largely president during a correction, which doesn't mean there were no misallocations, but most of the misallocations we're dealing with were caused by Trump and Biden era policies.

I wouldn't say it was bound to happen, because if they hadn't been such economic interventionists there wouldn't be much to correct.

42 sats \ 29 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug

I wonder if the next president will have to deal with a worse economic cycle?

20 sats \ 28 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

They're going to deal with a major correction. How bad the next cycle is is still TBD.

21 sats \ 27 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug

Major correction or a major depression?

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21 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug

Trump's policies prior to COIVD I dont think would have resulted in the huge issue we have had to deal with. The COVID response was going to be expensive but the biggest issue to me is that the Biden Admin has not allowed for billions in unspent COVID spending to be clawed back. Not to mention the PPP loan program was filled with fraud and while Trump signed the initial part into law in April 2020 Biden has been in charge and taken a lot of credit for the program "success" even as it failed realistically.

47 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

The Covid stimulus was the larger part, but his restrictionist trade policies were also causing misallocations and made the supply chain less able to respond to Covid. To his credit, allowing more energy development was helping unwind some prior misallocations.

Maybe it was a wash, pre-Covid, but certainly not after.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 2 Aug

Oh yeah once COVID hit everything went out the window. Without COVID I think the US and China would have been able to really get into the trade stuff and "fix it" but COVID ended up driving that off the road because we needed things that only China had/made. I think long term we will be happier with those trade moves though because it really kick-started bringing back pretty fundamental things to the US or allied nations.

During COVID not a single person knew what was going on or how to react and it was a lose-lose situation for whoever was in office. I think some of the stuff being delayed from China though ended up saving lives as well. For instance, ventilators were thought to be good to help people recover only to kill a bunch of them.

Overall it was just crap timing with COVID hitting. Without that I think it all would have worked out and the issued we had with China in particular, would have been a whole lot smoother.

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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug

I think I answered your question in the other post but let me know if I didn't!

47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug

There are two ways to look at it. If Biden gets all of the economic positive credit that started because of policies Trump laid down then I think Biden gets all of the inflation credit as well. It has been spun as if Trump caused the inflation but Biden saved the economy and I mean that just doesn't work.

I look at it more so from the COVID pandemic, which required a surge of government dollars to keep everything from collapsing. However, the rollout and implementation of it wasn't good hence the whole fraud issue. On top of that in Biden's 4 years his admin and Dem Members in Congress have prevented a lot of the unused funds from being clawed back. This would help lower the cost of everything since there are billions and billion in unused funds just sitting there. Using this money that is just sitting around would help slow down the money-printing machines in the US.

All of that it say is Trump caused some but it was required to prevent an economic collapse. The Biden Admin fumbled Trumps already enacted plans and then refused to take back unused money along with spending hundreds of billions more getting us in this situation.

69 sats \ 6 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

The U.S. labor market faces increasing strain as the U6 unemployment rate, a comprehensive measure of underemployment, climbs to 7.8% in July from 7.4% in June 2024. The U6 index offers a realistic snapshot of the job market by including those who have stopped searching for work and those returning from studies, reflecting a broader and more accurate picture of employment challenges.

https://m.stacker.news/43020

47 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

It's especially important to get the most holistic picture, right now. So many people are working part time jobs and many are working two jobs (which looks like two employed people in most of the metrics).

92 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

And then there's the gov job creation machine to fake numbers

47 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

Exactly. I know the Mises guys keep their own GDP and money supply analogues. Do you know if anyone maintains a more rigorous unemployment series?

42 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

Sorry. I have no idea

47 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

That might be an interesting thing to put together. As a starting point, I'm thinking it should basically be U4 plus government employment.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

Good point

80 sats \ 1 reply \ @Athena 2 Aug

If recession comes to U.S. then the world should also be prepared.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

i see large parts of the private sector as having been in recession for a long time. the massive effort that the state has made with its artificial demand has so far only covered this up. and now the truth is slowly coming to light

89 sats \ 1 reply \ @BitcoinAbhi 2 Aug

the New York Fed's recession probability model suggests there is still a 55 chance of a U.S. recession sometime in the next 12 months.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

these number games are completely obsolete anyway. if we subtract the massive government spending programs, which are financed with the printing press and bring nothing, the economy has been in recession for a long time. the same applies even more extremely to the eurozone.

47 sats \ 1 reply \ @TheMorningStar 3 Aug

I know it's more than 4.3%. Governments hide here 2% on an average.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 3 Aug

Or even more

47 sats \ 5 replies \ @Coinsreporter 2 Aug

Oh! Now I see why government was trying to produce more jobs in government sector. They already knew it that the job matket will be weaker in coming days and they didn't wanna risk their election campaign.

11 sats \ 4 replies \ @TomK OP 3 Aug

Correct. The government has tried to save itself by crossing the finish line here until November. apparently that doesn't work so well after all

58 sats \ 3 replies \ @Coinsreporter 3 Aug

Obviously, they have just opened some thousand positions. I doubt if they complete the hiring before November. This government should be ashamed of trying to cheat people on it.

11 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 3 Aug

And they are financing this stupid charade with tax payer's money and inflationary tokens

58 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter 3 Aug

They are gonna lose thes elections for sure! You see the wind is blowing in the direction of a change everywhere. No government will repeat in developed world. And I'm a bit optimistic that new government will think of people's welfare.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 3 Aug

But thanks to mass media propaganda, made for a totally retarded public, Kamala is catching up now....

https://m.stacker.news/43172

47 sats \ 1 reply \ @JesseJames 2 Aug

C'mon now, July-August everyone is on vacation, economy included... lol We will be right back to "not so soft landing " in September, just watch.... if you look hard enough and long enough it will get better... Keep your chin up.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

Especially here on the EUSSR!

47 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satoshi__Nakamoto 2 Aug

This will be bad situation for US unemployment rate is increasing day by day. I think Ai is one of the major reasons for lack of job WHAT you guys think about this please comment down

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

Is a factor, yes. But this recession os systemic and structural

47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Kontext 2 Aug

SAHM RULE TRIGGERED https://m.stacker.news/43030 https://media1.tenor.com/m/mUzD8XHmgpEAAAAC/movie-time-movie.gif

47 sats \ 1 reply \ @Msd0457890 2 Aug

Can someone explain to me how the country with one of the largest economies in Latin America is heading straight for recession and rising unemployment rates?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

Lol

47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug

Its been weakening for a while. Unemployment is super high, too. This job market is weird, they take so much time to hire people. Its like they arent serious.

47 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 2 Aug

https://m.stacker.news/43017 https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-openings-edge-lower-june-2024-07-30/

47 sats \ 11 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug

I'm listening to a guy on CNBC blaming Powell for not cutting sooner. No talk of target inflation rate.

43 sats \ 10 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug

Aw crap I just turned to it who was it?! My fav guy is on rn with Rick Santelli

47 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug

Full disclosure. He did come back on and talked about inflation target. He basically said ignore it.

43 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 2 Aug

https://m.stacker.news/43023

What inflation... It'll come back soon. But not now

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug

I'm hearing arguments both ways. Deflation, or 70s style stagflation in the US over the next year or two. We'll see.

47 sats \ 6 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug

I don't know. I have never seen him before. He's not a regular. Santelli is the best they have, other than Joe, and he has a good take.

43 sats \ 5 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug

He really is! He speaks his mind no matter how it is going to make people feel and pretty freakin often hits the nail on the head! He will battle Andrew Sorkin as well along with Joe Kernen!

10 sats \ 4 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug

Joe is the resident stacker😀

43 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 2 Aug

Joe is what I want to be in life... Having zero cares calling it like he sees is and roasting Andrew at every opportunity that he can!

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 2 Aug

I used to watch Squawk Box every morning as far back as I can remember. I remember when Joe and Faber were the hosts. Since I discovered bitcoin I only tune in for big macro days

43 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 2 Aug

Ah I love David Faber as well! That was a really solid combo for general morning market news

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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 3 Aug

I feel like I missed most of the conversations on here because I fell asleep.

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