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21 sats \ 41 replies \ @ek 18 Sep 2022 \ on: Daily discussion thread
How dumb is it to take out a credit to buy a big chunk of bitcoin soon-ish? I'll wait until the next FOMC meeting at least.
I know a lot of people say no, never go into debt to buy bitcoin but if I don't overleverage myself and keep the monthly payments reasonable, I start to believe it's a no-brainer if I'll never sell my bitcoin anyway?
Maybe I start to get too greedy. But it's also hilarious to think to use the current system based on debt to buy the hardest asset in the world, haha
I did something similar. Opened a 0% credit card and used that for my regular fiat purchases. The fiat I didn't spend because of the card has gone into buying Bitcoin. As the 0% gets close to expiring, if I haven't paid off the card, I'll open another 0% card and transfer the balance.
Got the idea from @DEEPFUCKINGHODL on Twitter. He's apparently done this multiple times. So far it's working well.
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I did this back in March 2020. When Bitcoin had that crash almost to $3k I took one of my credit cards and did a huge purchase then did a “DCA” over the next 12 months to pay it off with a 0% balance transfer with a one time 5% fee. When BTC went to $69k it was an amazing trade in fiat terms I could have easily sold the BTC to cover the credit card but I didn’t. I just used the cash flows from my fiat job to pay off the card and kept the sats in cold storage
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that for my regular fiat purchases
So you mean like food etc?
The fiat I didn't spend because of the card has gone into buying Bitcoin.
So you had a monthly limit on that card and the rest you didn't spend in that month went into bitcoin?
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Yes, anything that I normally would have bought with fiat, I put on the credit card instead. No monthly limit, just ensure you don't overspend more than you normally would. I paid on it occasionally with my Fold card, but I've stacked so much more Bitcoin doing this.
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The question is, how long could you tolerate a bear market, if you're buying Bitcoin on credit? If the price stayed like this for four more years, would you be toast?
Bitcoin is the hardest asset in the world, but it doesn't have to behave on our schedule. I believe the market will shake out all but the longest term holders.
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If the price stayed like this for four more years, would you be toast?
No, the price could drop to 0 and I wouldn't have a problem since I still earn fiat and have no other liabilities except a credit where I pay 25€ per month but I don't see this becoming a problem. The only problem I see would be if I lose my job, but that's a risk independent of bitcoin's price in my opinion. And I would have bigger problems then. I also feel pretty safe in my job (or easy to change jobs).
So I could tolerate the bear market indefinitely pretty much.
I basically just want to put my money where my mouth is without doing anything seriously stupid, haha
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Depends how much of Bitcoin Maxi you are...
If you buy BTC just as an "investment"... don't do it.
If you buy BTC to FUCK THE BANKS... DO IT.
People who start learning about how money works end up being bitcoin maximalists.
I am in Bitcoinlandia from 2012 and never stopped stacking sats.
In 2015 I took a loan from a bank and bought all the way BTC.
In 2016 I took out all the money I had in a pension fund and I bought all the way BTC.
In 2017 I emptied all my bank accounts and bought BTC, all the way.
If you have a way of life that you can afford to pay back that loan in shitcoin fiat, DO IT. If you do not have it, then leave it. Just sell your car, sell your house, live simple and stack more.
I NEVER REGRET THAT. Now I have ZERO money in a bank and closed 99% of them. Almost not even using a bank anymore.
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If you buy BTC to FUCK THE BANKS... DO IT.
Oh, I somehow missed reading that before
Haha, yes, that's exactly what I meant with
But it's also hilarious to think to use the current system based on debt to buy the hardest asset in the world, haha
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I would love to take out my pension fund to buy bitcoin but where I live, you have to exit your country first...
But thanks, that's what I wanted to hear: if other people did it as well
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You will have to fight for your money, not just comply with the BS they tell you...
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How do I fight for my money if I have no money?
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You are right, money in a bank are not yours anymore.
But if you still consider them your money, then:
- worth fighting for...,
- with No Surrender
- until Lightning will strike
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stacking sats is NOT "too greedy"... you will NEVER have enough sats.
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What interest rate would you have to pay?
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Examples (only researched a single bank yet):
1,500€ for 12 months, 1.99% interest per year (1.97% debit interest rate): 126.34€ per month
(However, my calculation of (1500 + (1500 * 0.0199)) / 12 gives me 127.49€; not sure where the difference comes from)
126.34€ per month is too high for me. Increasing it to 24 months:
1,500€ for 24 months, 4.49% interest per year (4.40% debit interest rate): 65.41€ per month
Now the interest rate is quite high imo.
However, the interest rate does not increase if I increase the term:
3,000€ for 60 months (5 years), 4.49% interest per year (4.40% debit interest rate): 55.81€ per month
Also not sure if "debit interest rate" is the correct translation. It's called "Sollzins" in German.
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I think it's pretty dumb. Bitcoin could drop 50% tomorrow. It's risky and gambling, but historically has paid off handsomely. History is not an accurate prediction of the future, however..
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Then I'll buy more with my next salary. I am confident enough to take the risk. I think I am going to do it. Just have to research my best options.
History is not an accurate prediction of the future, however..
Yes. But the fundamentals are still the same.
I think it's "risky and gambling" if you don't know what you are doing.
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The fundamentals are the same, but the fundamentals are worth ~$20k.
The fundamentals were worth $20k in December 2017, but were worth $3k in 2018/19/20.
It's risky and gambling because no one (including you) knows what the price will be tomorrow. Can you stomach a 50% drop for 1-3 years? I am a bull, but could see it dropping lower in the next year or two.
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As mentioned in another comment, yes I can. I am not thinking about 1-3 years. I am thinking about 5+ years.
Yes, I can see it drop lower, too. I still have to decide if I want to put it all in now or spread it out like I did with my monthly salary for the past 2 years. I have an appointment on Thursday: #71379
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How will you feel if you took out a loan to buy bitcoin at $20k when it is at $11k?
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Fine. As I said, I am serious about thinking long-term. I'll be glad to buy even cheaper. Are you testing my confidence? Haha.
But thanks for replying. You are asking good questions but I have thought about them.
If bitcoin doesn't work out, I'll be happy that I at least had the confidence.
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How will you be able to buy cheaper if you already blew your load at $20k?
I hope you understand what I'm getting at, which is that nobody knows the price tomorrow. Your best bet is to buy with money you already own, and it is you alone who must weigh the risks (and there are many) of taking out a loan to buy bitcoin.
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How will you be able to buy cheaper if you already blew your load at $20k?
With my regular income as before
I hope you understand what I'm getting at, which is that nobody knows the price tomorrow.
Yes I do. I think it's nice of you to care. I think I have calculated the risks and I am going to do it. If the bank allows it, haha
Confidence... the food of the wise man, but the liquor of the fool.
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If you are sure you can service the monthly payments without any problem, I think it's ok. But if it takes more than 15%-20% out of your paycheck, I wouldn't do it.
It's a speculative attack on the Euro in essence. I think it makes sense.
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If you are sure you can service the monthly payments without any problem, I think it's ok.
Yes. 50€ is like 5% of my regular income.
It's a speculative attack on the Euro in essence.
Not agreeing with "speculative" since my decisions are based on reasoning (I would call trying to get lucky as "speculation"), but yes it's an attack.
I have more confidence in the bitcoin blockchain pumping out a block every 10 minutes than the Euro to keep existing in the next 5-10 years.
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What if you lose your job? What if an emergency bill comes up?
I think bitcoin will continue adding blocks for a long while, but what makes you think the Euro will cease to exist in 5-10 years?
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5% of a salary is not that risky tbh
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Yes but it's good to think what I'll do if I lose my job.
I need to find out how much fiat I want to keep as an emergency.
Or where the best bridge is to sleep under haha
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If you lose your job, the state will provide you with a living wage, no?
The current situation between north and south Europe. Increasing pressure from political parties to exit the EU (see Brexit). I don't want to say I don't like the EU. But there are definitely some problems with it.
If I'll lose my job I'll be fucked for a while until I found a new job
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Damn. They want to meet me in person because I am a student but their website doesn't work to create an appointment, lol.
Update: Ah, worked now for some reason. I have an appointment for next Thursday. Let's see if they'll laugh at me for buying bitcoin, haha. Not sure if I even have to tell them that. I'll do some research
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They will probably ask it, but you could say it's for miscellanous expenses. E.g. buying a bicycle or smth. They don't need to know what it's for. Only that you can repay them.
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What if they find out later? My account is at a bank they bought some time ago.
And in some way I want to see their reaction if I tell them it's for buying bitcoin.
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They might reject your loan if you tell them. However, I think even Peter McCormack took out a loan years ago to buy btc and the bank knew what it was for. Some banks hate bitcoin and block tx to exhanges, others see no problem as long as you can service the debt.
I would just move the money to another bank first, for privacy reasons.
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So they can ask me to pay back the loan in full immediately?
I am not interested in playing games. I think in that case, I'll just tell them the truth. Their loss if they don't want to take my money
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No they can only demand the monthly payment.
Sure, let us know how it went. Good luck to you.
I would also advise to dca the amount over the coming months.
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Yes, I'll maybe do 500-1k of the loan per month or something. Don't want to underestimate the psychological effect of investing lump sums, hehe
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No. Never tell to the bank what you gonna do with your money.
Invent whatever any other reason / destination.
Will be interesting to see if they will give it to you in cash.
You should watch this nice spanish movie (EN subs) El concursante about a guy that won a lottery but the bank is not giving him cash, but a lot of "credit" to spend. Very good movie.
BTW, be aware, when you go to a bank for a loan, in the moment you sign the papers, that credit was already sold as a debt to others, so you actually pay for a debt that it doesn't exist anymore.
I know a case when the guy, get back to the bank and send them an official letter to prove the source of the money in their balance sheets from where they gave him that loan and what was the damage done if he will not pay it back.
After some letters fight back and forth, the guy won and never paid back the loan.
I will look into finding the video, is quite old, where the guy explained all the story.
In other words, they literally create new fictitious money with your signature.
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