EU and UK's High-Stakes Gambit: Banking on Ukraine's Victory \ stacker news ~econ

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EU and UK's High-Stakes Gambit: Banking on Ukraine's Victory

502 sats \ 53 comments \ @TomK 10 Oct econ

The EU and UK have plunged deep into Ukraine's financial quagmire, doubling down on a risky strategy. Both are betting on a Ukrainian triumph over Russia (max stupidity), hoping potential war reparations could offset a looming financial crisis. The European Court of Auditors has sounded the alarm as EU aid to Ukraine surged to €33.7 billion in 2023. A new €33 billion loan facility through 2027 adds to the fiscal tightrope walk. As these Western powers push their chips to the center, the question looms: Are they setting themselves up for a windfall, or a catastrophic bust?

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47 sats \ 26 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Oct

If Russia loses, I doubt there would be enough wealth to extract and come out ahead. This seems more like warmongering for the sake of distracting from domestic problems.

75 sats \ 3 replies \ @TomK OP 10 Oct

IMO this will be a great deal. And: they will crush Russia into dozens of states

101 sats \ 0 replies \ @gmd 10 Oct

Russia also played a stupid and dangerous game... I think their interest rate is at 19%? Sounds unsustainable...

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @000w2 10 Oct

Seems like a stretch to go from pushing Russia back to 2020 borders, to breaking Russia up without getting nuked.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Oct

Blink twice if you're under duress.

10 sats \ 21 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Oct

Did Hitler stop at Poland? If Russia wins then it will not stop at Ukraine. This is a proxy war between USA and China. https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-china-unveil-a-pact-against-america-and-the-west

60 sats \ 10 replies \ @TomK OP 10 Oct

Yes, it's a proxy and a credit accelerating scheme too. But to compare Putin to Hitler is exactly what the UK needs to accelerate this war. They will be in deep trouble if Ukraine defaults

0 sats \ 9 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Oct

Xi is who has enabled this war, not Putin. The pact made between Russia and China 2 weeks prior to the invasion is a matter of fact. https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-china-unveil-a-pact-against-america-and-the-west Putin is simply Xis war crimes proxy. Russia is now entirely dependent upon China. Equally Iran and its proxies would not be viable without Chinas ongoing support. Buying their oil exports and supplying their manufactured goods requirements. If you think this war is limited to Putin you don't know what a proxy is. This war is between China and the 'liberal democratic' west. If Putin wins in Ukraine the war will not stop there.

41 sats \ 6 replies \ @SimpleStacker 11 Oct

I understand where you're coming from.

But what would you define as success in Ukraine? What is "the West"'s strategic goal?

Is it to let Ukraine retake all the land that it's already lost? Because that seems far fetched unless western countries are willing to commit their own troops on the ground.

Is it to wait for regime change in Russia? I wouldn't hold my breath.

Is it to wear down Russia and hope that they expend more resources than we do? If so, I'd hardly call that "winning" for Ukraine. Sounds like we're just using Ukraine to take our punches for us. And if that's indeed the strategic objective, then I can understand why no one will say it out loud.

Or, is it that there's no objective, and that this doesn't matter as long as military contractors and suppliers keep getting paid?

30 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 11 Oct

Ukraine is the sacrificial punching bag

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11 Oct

Success would be Putin and his invasion being firmly and unequivocally repelled.

If it is not- if there is gain, rather than loss for Putin and his Chinese sponsor, then the invasions and incursions will not cease.

China with Iran, Russia and N.Korea are testing the resolve and unity of the west and if the west does not show firm resolve they will not stop at Ukraine.

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @openyoureyes 11 Oct

Nonsense. They want to stop the war next to their border. A demilitarised ukraine without laws against everything russian. Ukraine will be the bufferzone and the trade with europe will end. Russia does not need europe. But europe needs russia. Buying fracking gas from US is a financial and economical desaster and it is only one of many. The world is big and europe is only a very small part of it without any resources but with a lot of social problems.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11 Oct

Putin could not have invaded Ukraine without Chinas support. Russias GDP is 1/10 of Chinas and without China buying his oil and gas and supplying manufactured goods Putin is finished. Putin is a despot - Europe does not need him. Putin is begging China to hurry up and build the second oil pipeline to China- China is in no hurry as Russia is now their property anyway.

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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 11 Oct

We should analyse the Maidan event again and put the whole conflict on the geopolitical chessboard. IMO UK/USA are simply following their own playbook to strengthen their position. China/Russia in a way are just acting more and more like them

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11 Oct

Yes that is true. Its a simple choice really though isn't it - would you prefer a world dominated by China, or the US? Because that is what Ukraine (and the middle east conflict) is about. For me the balance still tips toward the US, maybe I'm biased toward freedom of speech, democracy (flawed as it certainly is in the west but not as flawed as Russia or China) and free market capitalism. Suspect most westerners would feel substantially disoriented under a Chinese led world order. Strange as fuck how so many Bitcoiners seem to think it (Chinese Autocracy)would ok...but hey maybe if so many westerners would welcome a Chinese hegemony over them and don't want to fight for their ongoing global dominance it will happen and we will learn what most other nations and cultures have experienced over the last 500 years...

37 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 11 Oct

Putin is not Hitler

You lose points for the dumb comparison and reading New Yorker

68 sats \ 8 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Oct

Do people not realize there are historical figures other than Hitler?

If Hitler were representative of other rulers, then he wouldn't be the uniquely terrible figure that he is.

24 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 11 Oct

very lazy example

Hitler comparisons mean your clip is empty

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Oct

Point is most of Europe convinced themselves Hitler would stop at Czekoslovakia, then Austria, then Poland etc....

Or to look at it in another way from inside the Nazi regime-

'First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
     Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.'

In Britain most politicians were in favour of appeasement of Hitler- because it would be easier that fighting him. It was only because Churchill dared to fight that Hitler was defeated- when Britain entered the war it was against huge odds. If Churchill had not dared to fight against the odds, where would you and your liberal democracies, rights and freedoms be now?

When thugs gain ground through aggression they seldom stop, until they are stopped. Putin is a thug and a despot and he is backed by China who have much wider ambitions.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @000w2 10 Oct

Nuclear weapons didn't exist when he did that. Technology changes the logic of violence. Bitcoiners should understand that better than anyone.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Oct

True but some things don't change. When thugs gain ground through aggression they seldom stop, until they are stopped.

Bitcoin and freedom of speech and markets are not and will not be tolerated by autocratic undemocratic despots like Putin and Xi - Bitcoiners should understand that.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nym 10 Oct

Good point.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 10 Oct

How about all of the examples where nothing like that happened?

You're just cherry picking historical events and pretending it's evidence of something.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Oct

You think appeasement will work with China and its war crimes proxy, Russia?

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 11 Oct

another buzzword: appeasement

28 sats \ 10 replies \ @SimpleStacker 10 Oct

No Western leader can even say what a Ukraine victory looks like. I guess Game Theory would suggest that they shouldn't say what their bottom line is, even if they know it internally. Still, as a citizen it is incredibly frustrating.

To me, Ukraine should be happy to just take a truce that doesn't involve total disarmament and becoming a Russian puppet state.

68 sats \ 8 replies \ @xz 10 Oct

Agree. A truce is where Ukraine should be. And from there, work out that the precarious geographic situation means negotiating with neighbours. Plural. This might be a reasonable response and a mature POV.

A western leader with a spine could at least admit to draining a nations future wealth and life already, reach for an accord and not finance each other's demise.

But we all know this.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 11 Oct

Ukraine is open to a ceasefire but they rely on NATO for aid including money and post reconstruction

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Oct

Disagree.

You do not seem to comprehend what is at stake here or even the concept of what war is.

China via its proxy dependency Russia, is challenging the current world order.

A western leader who accommodates war criminals, bullys and military despots, like Putin, is not a good leader and is only sowing the seeds of further conflict and erosion of liberal western democratic values and rule of law.

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @xz 10 Oct

To disagree is healthy. That's what I learned about life and communism. It's not really life. That said, what do you think is the current world order that is being challenged?

A challenge to the current world order is not one of any considerable merit. Is not honorable and doesn't have any systemic improvement. But the current world order is hegemonic and the challenging power will replace that with another hegemony. No such thing as peaceful ascendance. Just power that abhors vaccums.

Tell me, where is the good leader? Genuinely curious.

As for the 'liberal' values and rule of law. I see less difference between political systems day by day.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Oct

You make good points - the current US led global hegemony is FAR from perfect- it is built upon centuries of global imperialism that has trashed almost all other than European christian cultures. But, in the current context IMO the west with its huge flaws and hypocrisies is still arguably better than China and Iran and Russia and N.Korea who are currently challenging it. Am open to persuasion on this point but from what I can see Putins Russia in particular is a very nasty piece of work. There is no freedom of speech - opponents are murdered...it is a police state and rife with corruption and oligarchs...not freedom of speech or markets which the west at least partially though far from perfectly, achieves. The nature of life is that organisms and groups of organisms will fight for supremacy and access to resources. As for where are the good leaders- IMO we get the leaders we deserve- the cynical attitude of Libertarians to politics and government may not help in this- IMO we are all part of the government- I make my own contribution and many others do as well- democracy is fragile and fails when too few people are prepared to contribute- the corrption of our democracies has occurred with corporate sponsors coming to own our governments- we need to rise up and fight and remove these rentseeking corporate parasites- Bitcoin is a great tool in that difficult struggle.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @xz 11 Oct

I agree. Sometimes it's hard to say to what extent. Mostly, I can say I've seen evidence with most of what you said. For example, if I was to assess N.Korean current state of fairs, I have little first hand knowledge, having not seen it with my own eyes.

But largely I agree.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @xz 11 Oct

Perhaps if the west's gullible psychopathic liars, as there might be some exceptions (evidenced by the populist opposition to currect insane US, UK and EU policies and the fact that leaders of the east are not all saint by a large margin) presented a better model, proxy wars would not be such a freqent occurance.

That's just to bring balance to the shite governance models of East and West.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 11 Oct

Putin is not an existential threat to the west!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11 Oct

No but he is Xis proxy war bitch and he is one useful and significant prong of a deliberate and serious challenge to US/western hegemony.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @openyoureyes 11 Oct

Better than a armed US puppet state with a ongoing civil war and no elections.

20 sats \ 10 replies \ @Satosora 10 Oct

Its not max stupidity is ukraine promises them more that what russia does.

21 sats \ 9 replies \ @openyoureyes 11 Oct

Promises are maximal stupid if you know they are impossible. And a promise is nothing worth if you are lying. 8years of militarising ukraine while playing peace talks is something russia will never forget. The trust towards the western world is nearly zero.

0 sats \ 8 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11 Oct

You trust Putin???

21 sats \ 7 replies \ @TomK OP 11 Oct

You shouldn't trust any member of the parasitic caste. Never

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11 Oct

How do you define 'the parasite caste'?

21 sats \ 5 replies \ @TomK OP 11 Oct

Anyone who isn't contributing to a society of free voluntary exchange of goods or services but is stealing economic energy from the productive class by force

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 11 Oct

You consider all politicians as doing that?

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @TomK OP 11 Oct

Do You know even one of the so called 'representatives of the people' that's working, serving for free and actively reducing the state bureaucracy? That's what I would expect from a useful part-time parasite to serve its people and not to govern and educate them

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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 11 Oct

These loans are a joke. Ukraine can't repay any loans lol

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Golu 10 Oct

I only wonder how the people are very silent to all of this. Have they accepted the Modern Democratic Slavery there?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 10 Oct

I've listened that they have already given away some €30 billion to Ukrraine in 2024 and they have some plans to give something like €20 B more in this year itself. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/9/eu-members-approve-38bn-loan-for-ukraine-backed-by-russian-assets

Is this another installment or some other fund?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 10 Oct

Most of Europe caved in to Hitler- Some of Europe has learned from that.