What If We Don't Sell Our Bitcoin? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

2838 sats \ 57 comments \ @siggy47 27 Nov 2023 bitcoin

It seems clear that BlackRock and other funds will soon get approval for a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. in the near future.

There are approximately 1.5 million bitcoin remaining to be mined.

The percentage of bitcoin being held by long term hodlers is higher than ever, reflecting our low time preference commitment to bitcoin.

Bitcoin's price volatility can at least partially be explained by the lack of liquidity: Short term holders, trading on custodial exchanges, moving relatively small amounts of bitcoin causes extreme fiat price moves.

BlackRock Needs Our Bitcoin

It is axiomatic in the world of business and finance that everything is for sale. The only issue is price. This has shown to be historically true, but there are exceptions. Recently, the young GameStop and AMC degens held firm to cause serious losses for at least one hedge fund.

My point is this. What if the vast majority of bitcoiners don't sell the majority of their stack, regardless of how ridiculously high the fiat price gets? Sure, some of us will be tempted, and others will need the fiat to take care of their families and improve their life. But, what if the vast majority of the bitcoin remains in self custody with long term holders?

I know this wouldn't even be an issue for those of us like @DarthCoin, but I assume many of us will not have his fortitude.

What Would This Look Like?

Of course this is my utopian outcome. Is this scenario realistic? Many of us talk a good game, but none of us really know how we will react when confronted with the opportunity for massive fiat wealth. Do you think it's possible, and what would it mean for bitcoin? Would this hasten hyperbitcoinization?

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438 sats \ 3 replies \ @BlokchainB 27 Nov 2023

I think people who are savers will finally get rewarded for saving and will only spend on things that are worthwhile.

Bitcoin was designed to protect purchasing power into the future . This is what the world currently seeks out. That is the reason why the treasury market is so big.

But this type of saving behavior is the main fear of a consumption economy where everyone saves no one spends thus the economy collapses.

232 sats \ 1 reply \ @heyalmoo 27 Nov 2023

It's some kind of communist thinking, as if people all over the world will suddenly become a herd that needs nothing.

They're not. People will always have needs, dreams, desires.

And people will always have different levels of wealth, even in bitcoin. Those who have more bitcoins will buy goods before others.

The only difference is that a relatively poor person will be just as capable of saving up for something very valuable. And that's a good thing.

But the economy will never stand still.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 OP 30 Nov 2023

There is no state compulsion. This isn't communism. This is a voluntary decision. People are free to do as they please with their bitcoin.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @DarthCoin 27 Nov 2023

wise words

315 sats \ 6 replies \ @DarthCoin 27 Nov 2023

The weak point stays in those merchants that after they accept our sats for goods and services, are going to sell them instantly on CEX, where Blackrocks and other sharks like Saylor are waiting...

The most important thing, yes, is not to sell those BTC to Blackrock, but also convince the merchants not to sell their BTC and keep them, use them to pay employees, suppliers etc.

CREATE THAT DAMN BITCOIN CIRCULAR ECONOMY ! Only like that we can go forward, not going back to fiat.

94 sats \ 4 replies \ @Natalia 27 Nov 2023

until more people realizing that the money in their bank is not even theirs.

73 sats \ 3 replies \ @DarthCoin 27 Nov 2023

dark times are coming... for sure

54 sats \ 2 replies \ @Natalia 27 Nov 2023

But there are always somewhere bright even during the dark time, need to be there:)

53 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 27 Nov 2023

That light comes from inside of each of us... Each bitcoiner, each nocoiner, each shitcoiner MUST let that light out if really want a better world.

Will not come from govs, laws, politicians Will not come from blackrock, saylor, institutions Will not come from any ETF Will not come from Bitcoin itself (devs, nodes etc)

... you understand what I mean.

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @Natalia 27 Nov 2023

yes - Bitcoin won't fix the world, but by Bitcoiners.

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @beorange 27 Nov 2023

CREATE THAT DAMN BITCOIN CIRCULAR ECONOMY ! Only like that we can go forward, not going back to fiat.

Exactly

315 sats \ 6 replies \ @nemo 27 Nov 2023

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155 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

Yes. I was going to talk about how holding would prevent a hard fork, but your hypothetical would be a "de facto" hard fork that would serve the same purpose. It is possible. That's why @DarthCoin's solution of a circular economy really is the answer.

64 sats \ 2 replies \ @DarthCoin 27 Nov 2023

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

I almost always agree with you, and I did here also. My point was that starving these ETF's of bitcoin would be beneficial in the long run. It just doesn't seem possible here in 2023. Maybe if this was happening a few years from now it would be easier.

55 sats \ 0 replies \ @DarthCoin 27 Nov 2023

Blackrock only want now the money from those losers buying paper btc. In order to create their own wrapped BTC (whatever token based on BTC) they will have to own all BTC. But that is impossible and they know it

If they fork it will be like killing themselves. And they know also that.

I am not so worried about blackrock... The most dangerous is the people compliance into CBDC

85 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 27 Nov 2023

let blackrock to fork his mother if he want to fork...

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @nemo 27 Nov 2023

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168 sats \ 7 replies \ @carlosfandango 27 Nov 2023

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66 sats \ 1 reply \ @nemo 27 Nov 2023

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63 sats \ 0 replies \ @carlosfandango 27 Nov 2023

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46 sats \ 4 replies \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

The best case would be sudden, massive appreciation. Then, those who needed it could shave a little off their stack while retaining the bulk of their bitcoin. Unfortunately that's not how markets work. More likely scenario is a gradual rise and retracement.

43 sats \ 3 replies \ @carlosfandango 27 Nov 2023

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37 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

Definitely. People who bought at the top and are happy to break even. Also, there must be people waiting for milestones, like 100k

66 sats \ 1 reply \ @nemo 27 Nov 2023

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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @carlosfandango 27 Nov 2023

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84 sats \ 3 replies \ @garyKrause_ 27 Nov 2023

Sats standard.

If I can do the following with 25mil sats, I will sell.

Pay off all debt (house and car)
Pay for tuition for my kids school for 3 years
Finish my basement
Put a shed on the back acre
Buy all the random shit my wife wants for inside the house.
Install concrete patio in the backyard.

Bitcoin is a savings technology.

74 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

Based on my experience, I think it's going to be tough to quantify #5. At times it seems an infinite number.

63 sats \ 0 replies \ @garyKrause_ 27 Nov 2023

The real challenge will be talking the wife down when she wants to sell the stack for any single one of these things. I should probably go over this plan with her soon now that it’s out of my head and into words.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @garyKrause_ 27 Nov 2023

😭 I know… 😂

427 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 27 Nov 2023

Deal.

416 sats \ 0 replies \ @sudonaka 27 Nov 2023

They will probably buy gbtc

408 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitByBit21 27 Nov 2023

406 sats \ 0 replies \ @ssaurel 28 Nov 2023

As always, you have two types of people in the market.

Those who understood the why of Bitcoin. They will not sell their Bitcoin to BlackRock or Fidelity, because they have understood that their interest lies elsewhere with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is our chance to take back power over money. A unique opportunity presents itself to us with Bitcoin in the future: that of building a circular economy based on the Bitcoin system. An alternative economy that will allow us to protect ourselves from governments and bankers.

Those who only see Bitcoin as another financial investment offering good returns in perspective. These people are likely to end up selling their BTC to BlackRock once the price exceeds $100K in order to make profits. Their greed will prevent them from seeing beyond the money to understand that there is no point in selling Bitcoin for weak money.

Unfortunately, I fear that the second category is largely in the majority. But I do not despair that as we propagate the deep values of the Bitcoin revolution, more and more people will open their eyes to join the first category.

This will clearly be the challenge for years to come for the mass adoption of Bitcoin which respects the interests of the people.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 27 Nov 2023

When the price goes up some people sell. There are a lot of traders who also hold bitcoin & will continue to do their thing. For the people that live & breath bitcoin it will be a test.

My stack is generally for my kids. Also merchants providing value will get some of that too through spending. It will not touch an exchange ever again.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @HardRich 27 Nov 2023

I, personally, have no plans to sell my bitcoin and get back into fiat. I will, however, at some point, feel "financially independent" and may scale back on my work. At that point, I might need to convert some of my stack to fiat only to pay for things that won't accept bitcoin.

I'm not using bitcoin as a way to have big buckets of fiat. But, I am using it as a nest egg that I would tap into at some point. I'll work as long as I can, but I also am working more than I'd like currently so at some point I would scale back but would like to have a similar lifestyle.

I'm hoping that by the time I do have to tap into my bitcoin that more places will accept it and then I won't have to "sell" the bitcoin at all. Maybe at that point I'll move down to El Salvador, or something.

42 sats \ 4 replies \ @rafaelasprilla334 27 Nov 2023

Black rock is accumulating Bitcoin to call your etf

For them it is important to hoard the largest amount of Bitcoin and have it for themselves and for your etfs

Just as Bitcoin protects our money from the rulers, black rock also seeks to shelter its wealth in bitcoin so the government will not be able to get its hands on your money under any circumstances.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

Only one problem. BlackRock is the government. Google Larry Fink.

406 sats \ 0 replies \ @sudonaka 27 Nov 2023

The monster is eating itself

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @rafaelasprilla334 27 Nov 2023

I'm already researching that. I know that black rock takes and sets precedents but I didn't know it was the government, if that's the case, until the government wants a part of Bitcoin, if that's the case, it would be inevitable.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

You won't find it written anywhere that BlackRock is part of the government. It's part of a system where big corporations control the government, not vice versa. The FDA is basically controlled by pharmaceutical companies. BlackRock heavily influences the U.S. Treasury. The military industrial companies dictate foreign policy.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @gfy 27 Nov 2023

Everyone don't sell you bitcoin and let's see what happens.

35 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

A similar thing was tried with some success with the GameStop short squeeze. There's a movie coming out about it called "Dumb Money." A reddit sub played a big role in organizing it. Ultimately the big guys won. If bitcoiners tried something like that, we might have more of a home court advantage. The GameStop degens had to play by Wall Street rules- regulated securities on highly regulated exchanges. I was impressed with their strength and ability to ignore fast gains, being more interested in disrupting the unfair system.

Of course that was a short squeeze, but we could use the same general idea.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @anon 27 Nov 2023

"My point is this. What if the vast majority of bitcoiners don't sell the majority of their stack, regardless of how ridiculously high the fiat price gets?" I'm never selling*.

Except if I can buy my house with half my stack.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nemo 27 Nov 2023

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76 sats \ 0 replies \ @f6287b82CC84bcbd 30 Mar

Im never selling either.. I'll be more than happy to spend it over lightning though to shoe my support.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @alamino 27 Nov 2023

I have already answered questions like that before. This is an impossible scenario. People are different. The want to get "money". They see a little profit and they take it. Many people will sell their BTC in a 100% profit. Not all bitcoiners are thinking exactly the same way...

People eventually need money and must sell their stack. Economy is a chaotic environment where one cannot predict all other moves...

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @danieltapa 27 Nov 2023

i agree.. that comes back to the subjectivity of "value".. it will always be a balance between the 2 extremes.. even if this balance is closer to the "never sell" end, there will always be a price that's worth selling for some people

32 sats \ 1 reply \ @tomlaies 27 Nov 2023

There is no such thing as "selling Bitcoin".

The process of having less real money is called "buying" not "selling".

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 OP 27 Nov 2023

I get your semantic argument and I agree. I chose the word "sell" for a reason, as in selling out. I toyed with the idea of saying "exchange for fiat", but ultimately stuck with selling.

2 sats \ 0 replies \ @anon 28 Nov 2023

Black rock will get the bitcoin from the hundreds of thousands of coins held on exchanges. People that think their paper claims are real bitcoin will find out the hard way that they are just unsecured creditors.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinosphere 28 Nov 2023

Here's how it will look:

Let's say you have 10 BTC after stacking for many years, and then blackrock & a crapload of other ETFs get approved & try to buy all the free & new issuance BTC the moment it hits the market.

Overnight the ability to stack becomes harder, and you realize that you're locked in at 10BTC for literally the rest of your life. You'll never, ever, ever see the 11th BTC.

But of course that comes with the benefit of your 10BTC constantly reaching new daily highs... $69k one week, $100k the next week, 200k the next, 500k the next, etc... It doesn't seem to stop for months and months until we've finally hit the top of the current surge of the bull market. (like we did in 2013, 2017, & 2021.)

But this time it can't fall 80% again. It'll go down a bit but not 80%. Maybe 30%. I can only speculate but blackrock isn't going to suddenly sell off 80% of their coins.

At any rate, your 10btc tops out (for the cycle) worth about $20 Million USD in today's terms. The price goes sideways again at some point around there after the bottom has been found, let's say at $15m. You start to feel that this is what your savings are worth. You could buy 15 yachts or 15 mansions.

Since you'll never see that 11th BTC, there is no way, whatsoever, that working your old job is ever going to earn you enough money to make a difference again. You're effectively retired, living off your bitcoin. And you know there will be another surge in 4 years to turn your $15m into something far larger like $100m. Then $500m another 4 years later. -You'll never lift a finger again to earn more coins.

You have to live your life, however. Food costs money, the wifey wants some new shoes, your house needs repairs, your body needs healthcare, the kids need education, etc., etc. You WILL be spending coins... Albeit more sats at the top of the bull cycle and fewer at the bottom. How much more will be up to your personal time preference & how many coins you've stacked this year before the bull run takes your ability to earn more away.

I'd say all hodlers right now will hit that feeling by 2028 or 2032 at the latest... Their new worth will be so high by then that they can literally buy those yachts without spending too large of a percentage of their stash by then.